Quantcast
According to IGN and NPD, every Capcom-Wii game is overtracked

Forums - Sales Discussion - According to IGN and NPD, every Capcom-Wii game is overtracked

Erik Aston said:
I think VGC is probably an acceptable 5-15% over for a lot of titles in the first few weeks, but then 50-500% off in a lot of the legs tracking.

Remember that a lot of these games have already had corrections in the past, because Capcom shipment data is more common than for most other companies. So VGC may have already corrected down to Capcom numbers for 50% or 75% of the total sales, and then still subsequently overtracked by 15 or 30% of the total.

This is unavoidable as long as VGC keeps putting numbers out there for gazillions of games every week. If VGC covers 5% of the market, for a title which they estimate sold 5K copies, they only directly tracked 250. When a title is selling that little, maybe most retaillers have dropped it. Maybe a retailler VGC covers is the only one carrying it. Or maybe the retaillers VGC covers are some of the only to have stopped carrying it. You can only undertrack in a given week by the amount of weekly sales though, while if VGC covers 5% of the market and covers all of the sales of a particular game, they could overtrack by 20 times the actual sales in a given week.

Even the biggest sources only put out numbers for the top group of games. Rarely will you see sales for more than the top 40 SKUs in a country in a week, and that's from people with far more market coverage. Meanwhile VGC lists not just the top 200, but hundreds and hundreds beyond. I think VGC has done a poor job of developing their legs tracking because those numbers rarely get attention compared to first week data, and they can always fall back on "percent of total" instead of "percent of total since last correction."

This isn't true. There isn't an absolute number, because buying trends will vary wildly my city, store, and region.



Around the Network
Ail said:
Hephaestos said:
RE4 Wii on capcom website is 1.500 as of Dec 31st 2008 (most likely a rounded up number.

last week it did 5.6K and we have it at 1 664K... so I guess about 1 630K for Dec 31st 2008

1500 to 1630 K is pretty close... especially considering that most numbers on the capcom site are well rounded off...
oh and their site says sold not shipped... probably increasing the rounding of numbers.

 

It's sold to retailers, ie shipped. Publishers have no way to track sold numbers to customers (except by hiring companies like NPD to give them estimates because most retailers have no obligation to report sold numbers to the publisher).

Keep that in mind and the number sold to customers are going to be bellow that number, how much bellow is hard to say but probably at least 200k bellow...( 50k retailers worldwide each carrying 4 copies doesn't seem to be an overestimation).

 

RE4 Wii will definitely not have 200k copies on shelves, it is an old game by now which isn't moving a lot of copies. If the game is still selling 20-30k units worldwide per month that would be 6-7 months of inventory. With these kind of sales some stores will just stop carrying it and others will only order a few copies and wait until they're sold out until reordering.

 



koffieboon said:
Ail said:
Hephaestos said:
RE4 Wii on capcom website is 1.500 as of Dec 31st 2008 (most likely a rounded up number.

last week it did 5.6K and we have it at 1 664K... so I guess about 1 630K for Dec 31st 2008

1500 to 1630 K is pretty close... especially considering that most numbers on the capcom site are well rounded off...
oh and their site says sold not shipped... probably increasing the rounding of numbers.

 

It's sold to retailers, ie shipped. Publishers have no way to track sold numbers to customers (except by hiring companies like NPD to give them estimates because most retailers have no obligation to report sold numbers to the publisher).

Keep that in mind and the number sold to customers are going to be bellow that number, how much bellow is hard to say but probably at least 200k bellow...( 50k retailers worldwide each carrying 4 copies doesn't seem to be an overestimation).

 

RE4 Wii will definitely not have 200k copies on shelves, it is an old game by now which isn't moving a lot of copies. If the game is still selling 20-30k units worldwide per month that would be 6-7 months of inventory. With these kind of sales some stores will just stop carrying it and others will only order a few copies and wait until they're sold out until reordering.

 

It seem high but 200k really isn't that much, if you look at ship numbers of recent games, there are games that have 1 million copies unsold on retailers shelves....

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

Ail said:

It seem high but 200k really isn't that much, if you look at ship numbers of recent games, there are games that have 1 million copies unsold on retailers shelves....

 

But this isn't a recent game anymore, neither was it overshipped at the beginning seeing how shipment numbers are still slowly climbing.

 



Zlejedi said:
kitler53 said:

GAME IGN/NPD VGCHARTZ(AMERICAS) %DIFFERENCE
RE4 759,000 990,000 30%
RE:UC 398,800 510,000 28%
Okami 165,900 200,000 20%
Z&W 116,600 160,000 37%

 

Now, NPD is for the USA and Vgchartz is for the Americas (USA + Canada) which as a rule of thumb is 110% larger than USA alone.  So do you really want to call this overtracked?  I mean really, that's pretty damn close and I applaud Brett for his work.  but hey, haters will always hate...

edited for visual clarity.

So 18-27% error margin is considered close ?

 

Try again, multiplying IGN/NPD times 1.1 changes all the %differences.

 



Around the Network

GAME IGN/NPD 110%NPD VGC(AM) %DIF
RE4 759,000 834,900 990,000 19%
RE:UC 398,800 438,680 510,000 16%
Okami 165,900 182,490 200,000 10%
Z&W 116,600 128,260 160,000 25%


From this, everything is within 20% -- except Zack & Wiki.
The numbers are higher than NPD. Of course NPD does not have Toys R US and Wal-Mart and could be using an older model to compute things. Or a lot of stock got sent back/discounted/discontinued.

For Z&W, unfortunately, there seemed to be a lot of the latter. My local K-Mart was selling it for $15 new. Of course, had there been sufficient copies of the game available when it was first released, it might have fared better. (Not sure, but almost as if Capcom by not marketing the game to stores and consumers set it up to fail).

Also, did we ever determine if the 300k shipped included Europe? It almost has to for these sales to make sense.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


I like to jump around, and would lead a fairly serene and aimless existence if it weren't for my friends always getting into trouble. I love to help out, even when it puts me at risk. I seem to make friends with people who just can't stay out of trouble.

Wii Friend Code: 1624 6601 1126 1492

NNID: Mike_INTV

IGN/NPD numbers are US only vgchartz tries to include us,canada,mexico, and sout america as part of america sales estimates, the margin of error is lowered when those are included.



I TAKE NO SIDES

mabye they put the decimal in the wrong place :P