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Console Wars abhor a tie

Forums - Sales Discussion - Console Wars abhor a tie

By now, most people are agreeing that compared to the last gen, the Wii and 360 will both see increased sales, while the PS3's will be lower. Infact many people are even considering the idea of a three way tie. On the one hand, the evidence seems to point to that end. But at the same time, the nature of that is so unprecedented that I'd find it almost impossible. In the past, there's always been one market leader, with the competition pretty far behind. The closest exception to this so far is the forth generation, in which the Snes only managed to beat the Genesis by 20 million units. But thats still a lot. So will this be the gen that changes everything? or will some outside market force put the squeeze on one or more consoles. Is there a VHS/Betamax effect at play on consoles? or will we find that everybody can succeed this time around. One more question, if everybody does do lovely business, will others be enticed into the game? Will Apple, Toshiba or Mattell see an all console loving sales field and say me too? does my thread even make sense? who is the father of Anna Nicole Smith's child? These and many more questions will be answered, on the days of our lives...



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It may be good for hardware sales. I knew a *LOT* of people who owned both a PSX and N64 since there were loads of must-have exclusives on each. If this gen encourages lots of people to buy (eventually) two or three systems, that could be good for the industry. re: Apple, EA, or whoever wanting to get in on the action, if MS and/or Sony keep hemoraging money that may disuade others



I believe the issue for a near 3-way tie will be the question of how soon the Wii (if it does) gets an early console revision. %-wise, this will be the closest ever, but I still think the difference between #1 and #2 will be somewhere near 15 million units. The Wii obviously has the momentum - It sells well worldwide (unlike the 360) and is cheap (unlike the PS3), but doesn't have the power, nor ability (IMO) to capture graphics junkies and more casual markets with games like GTA, Final Fantasies, and other PS2 titles that have yet to goto the Wii party. Having said this, again, it comes down to if Nintendo bows out the Wii due to HD penetration and follows with a beefed up Wii. If it doesn't, it'll probably give Sony a run for its money, as Sony is the only compeditor with the ability to sell worldwide. The 360 would easily be the major threat to Nintendo, but it's lack of any sort of Japaneese sales prevents it from beating a true worldwide threat. Personally, I see the PS3 still coming out on top due to the fact it will do well everywhere, and won't get a console revision, as Sony can't afford it. However, if Sony did win, it'd be at a huge loss and they run the risk of having to either bow out or merge on a PS4 with MS or someone else (Apple? Of course, MS owns a large % of Apple anyways) So again, my predictions made a year ago - PS3 at 70 to 75m units (6-7 year lifespan due to Sony losing massive $$$, eventually doing well w/w, but only due to Sony trying to pull a PS2 and have sales after the next-gen is out) 360 at 50-55m (due to 35m units, a near PS2-type sale in the US, and better/suprising numbers in Japan and Europe vs. last cycle) Wii at 47.5m-52.5m (yes, strange, but I believe Nintendo will cut Wii production off in 3-4 years in favor of a Wii 2. If Wii 2 counted toward the Wii's total, I'd change this, but for sake of argument and keeping numbers from a year ago, I do not include it). So overall, the Wii will win in terms of # sold per year worldwide, Sony wins a superficial "win" by selling the most systems despite letting it become old on the market, and MS wins because they now own a dominating share in the US, a good share in Europe, and an improving share in Japan and other territories. So a tie can be seen in various ways. A real tie will be that most developers are tied in who they support - we won't see developers go all-in on the Wii, PS3 or 360, but split. Some will dev for the 360/PS3 as they are, some will move to the Wii, even more move between all 3. Really, the words of sony will come true though: most devs go multi-plat, forcing each console maker to have their own studios. Next generation will be the battle of the studios, not the hardware itself.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

Does anyone else thinks it sucks if there's a tie? All that means to me is that there's going to be a lot of compelling titles spread out on 3 different systems. I really don't want to spend $1250 on 3 consoles. My point is that because the prices for all the consoles are so high, many people aren't going to get a chance to buy multiple systems, at least not for many years. Last generation, for $500 I got a PS2 and GC at their respective launches. For that kind of money, I can't get any two systems. I think the lack of multiple console owners will hurt the 360/PS3 combined sales over a similar time frame as the last generation. That's one reason why I think the 360/PS3 are going to remain on the market for far longer than any other console except perhaps the NES. Too much has been invested in both systems to kill 'em off after 4 years or even 7 years like the XBOX and PS2, respectively. Plus, every new console generation causes everyone to lose way too much money. I don't think the industry can survive another self-destructive change in consoles.



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

jman8 said: Does anyone else thinks it sucks if there's a tie? All that means to me is that there's going to be a lot of compelling titles spread out on 3 different systems. I really don't want to spend $1250 on 3 consoles.
Exactly. It's because of this that I'd imagine something has got to give. I'm also wondering just how strong the individual software will be, as by and large, third parties are turning to cross platform development to recoup the higher dev costs. First party titles seem to matter now more than ever, but I don't see any one company (not even the big N itself) having the muscle and franchises to significantly dominate over another. But what does that mean? I have no idea. I started this thread because I really have no idea how this leveling of the playing field will pan out. It really is a wild card, which will make this Gen quite an exciting one. Good news for us I guess.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

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stof said: First party titles seem to matter now more than ever, but I don't see any one company (not even the big N itself) having the muscle and franchises to significantly dominate over another.
I am rather new to the video game scene (last console owned was SNES), but what first party titles does MS and sony have (halo comes to mind for MS...)? I thought sony produced a minimal amount of games and relied on third party developers? Also, what the heck is second party developers?



euclid said: stof said: First party titles seem to matter now more than ever, but I don't see any one company (not even the big N itself) having the muscle and franchises to significantly dominate over another. I am rather new to the video game scene (last console owned was SNES), but what first party titles does MS and sony have (halo comes to mind for MS...)? I thought sony produced a minimal amount of games and relied on third party developers? Also, what the heck is second party developers?
Sony actually has quitea bit of dev capacity. A recent net article stated that in sheer person power, they were number one. Here's a quick list taken from wikipedia. Internal division Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. * Clap Hanz – Hot Shots Golf series * Polyphony Digital – Gran Turismo series, Omega Boost * SCE Japan Studio (Project SIREN Team, etc.) – Ape Escape series, LocoRoco * Team ICO – ICO, Shadow of the Colossus SCEI Subsidiary Divisions Sony Computer Entertainment America Inc. * Incognito Entertainment – Twisted Metal: Black * Naughty Dog – Jak series * SCE Bend Studio (formerly Eidetic) – Syphon Filter series * SCE Foster City Studio (includes 989 Studios) – Rise to Honor * SCE San Diego Studio (includes 989 Sports & Red Zone Interactive) – The Mark of Kri, NBA '07 * SCE Santa Monica Studio – God of War, Kinetica * Sony Online Entertainment LLC. – EverQuest * Zipper Interactive – SOCOM: U.S. Navy SEALs series Sony Computer Entertainment Europe Ltd. * Guerrilla Games – Killzone series * SCE London Studio (includes Team SOHO & Camden) – The Getaway series, SingStar * SCE Studio Cambridge (formerly Millennium Interactive) – MediEvil series, Primal * SCE Studio Liverpool (formerly Psygnosis) – Wipeout series, F1 series Sony Computer Entertainment Korea Inc. * SCE Korea – EyeToy: EduKids, GloRace: Phantastic Carnival As for microsoft, they're probably the smaller of the three, but they used their wallet well to get into gaming, purchasing Bungie and Rare, and some others. Here's there Wiki list In-house studios * ACES Game Studio — Flight Simulator series, Combat Flight Simulator series and the upcoming Train Simulator 2 * Bungie — Halo series, Myth series, Marathon series * Ensemble — Age of Empires series, Age of Mythology series, Halo Wars * FASA Interactive — Shadowrun, Crimson Skies, Mechwarrior series * Feel Plus! — A new studio set up in conjunction with Mistwalker (they will be producing a new RPG titled Lost Odyssey) * Lionhead — Black & White series, The Movies, Fable series * Rare — Goldeneye 007, Perfect Dark series, Kameo, Killer Instinct series, Banjo series, Viva Pinata * Turn 10 — Forza Motorsport series * Wingnut Interactive — A new studio set up in conjunction with Peter Jackson (they will be producing a new game based in the Halo universe) As for second party developers. It's usually a term for independant devs that sign contracts to work exclusively for a console manufacturer. Rare was a second party company for Nintendo, till they were purchased outright by Microsoft.



I'm a mod, come to me if there's mod'n to do. 

Chrizum is the best thing to happen to the internet, Period.

Serves me right for challenging his sales predictions!

Bet with dsisister44: Red Steel 2 will sell 1 million within it's first 365 days of sales.

Wow. Thanks for the detailed response! If sony has the most developer 'muscle' then it should have plenty of games out by the end of this year.



euclid said: stof said: I am rather new to the video game scene (last console owned was SNES), but what first party titles does MS and sony have (halo comes to mind for MS...)? I thought sony produced a minimal amount of games and relied on third party developers? Also, what the heck is second party developers?
Sony makes a *lot* of games, but most are not particularly popular. God of War and Gran Turismo are examples of A-grade Sony first-party titles. "Second party" is a term that doesn't make a lot of sense anymore honestly: it is/was an outside developer that's exclusive to one platform, usually owned partially or wholly by the system maker. Back when e.g. Nintendo and Sega had large central development houses, but were also affiliated with outside developers (e.g. Rare with Nintendo) this was a useful distinction (Rare wasn't Nintendo, but they were a 2nd party to Nintendo)... but now that MS and Sony are really just collections of 2nd parties the distinction isn't very clear (even Nintendo farms out so much these day's it's becoming a lot blurrier).



As I own a Wii, and don't plan to buy any other console, I hope that Nintendo will win this "war". Seriously, I think Nintendo has good chances to become #1 this gen because the hardware sales are still strong, the attach ratio is good for a console only 3,5 months on the market and this will make the big third parties (Capcom, Konami, Square-Enix...) think over which console they should support the most. Of course the lower development costs for Wii plus the fast growing installed user base will help a lot. And I don't think that we have to be afraid that we'll see only games that fail to use the wiimote and thus fail to be a good game. Nintendo themselves will/had release/d the first good example for a game (Fire Emblem) that doesn't use the motion sensitive features of the console and is still without a doubt a great game in terms of gameplay. Graphics aren't that important to the casual gamers anyway, it is price and games. So far too many developers try to use the wiimote for simple reaction tests and mini games, the same they tried at the launch of the DS. The developers have to accept that not every game can be forced to use the special features of the nintendo consoles, for some games it adds really nothing to anotherwise great experience. For example the first Castlevania for the DS used the touchscreen for a few gameplay elements, although they didn't make the game better and felt tached on. Now the second game ignores the touchscreen and it didn't hurt the game in any way. For w/w hardware sales I see Nintendo in the top slot, although I have no clue how many millions they will sell and how many millions they will be ahead of the next competitor which is for me the Xbox360. Microsoft had a one year head-start, has build up a fairly big user base in the USA and a very good attach ratio. The problem I see for MS is that they won't reach such a big part of the casual market as Nintendo does, because of lack of genres and easy to pick up games like Wii sports and Wii play. MS will take quite a lot of Sony's piece of the cake, considering that important franchises for USA like GTA are not (time-)exclusives for sony system anymore. The PS3 will end up in third place (except in japan of course) due to the fact that they had launch problems, high price, still lack of killer-applications and no big games in the near future (which is half a year from now for me). Unless the PS3 launch in europe is unexpected good I think Sony has no real chance to get back in this "war", because third parties will develop their multiplatform games for the 360 and then port them to PS3 without any big visual improvements. That's the same problem Xbox and GC had last generation when they got PS2-ports. Conclusion: Nintendo wins because of the fastest growing userbase and the lowest development costs for games. Worldwide sales will be the highest for Wii, because I think Nintendo will really dominate japan. Microsoft will be able to get lots of PS2 owners to buy the 360 due to the big lead in USA and GTA. Sony made too many mistakes, doesn't have strong franchises on its own (except Gran Turismo), and is losing ground every week. By end of 2010 it could be like this: Japan sees a huge lead by Nintendo similar to NDS>PSP, Microsoft will reach about 1 million LTD with their 360, due to lack of japanese games. USA sees Nintendo with a small lead, because Microsoft is very strong in its homecountry, Rockstar and EA bring more content to the 360 than to the PS3, Live beats PSN by miles. It's also possible that Microsoft has the lead here, but again USA will be the closest race. Europe sees Nintendo with a lead of maybe 2-3 millions. Microsoft will be able to be second, although the PS3 isn't as far behind as in USA. That's just my opinion, of course it is very optimistic and I could be totally wrong.



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