i think both need to cross th one million mark, but im skeptical they will do it. i think wii only gamers may gravitate more towards the conduit, and multisystem owners to mad world.

People... Red Steel managed to sell a million, with a lower install base.

I'm pretty sure both MadWorld and The Conduit will sell more than a million each.

I really don't know how well these games will sell, Do Wii fans really want those games because they like them or just to say they have those types of games too?

sell more than HAZE OR even Resistance 2 and they will send a message.

The potential is there for The Conduit (IMHO); while the new dynamic Nintenod has undertaken has opened  up a new audience, it hasn't destroyed the other audience.  Any examples of poor 3rd party "hardcore" sellers can be explained by the fact that they usually are low quality, low advertisement, or niche.  There are still plenty of these type of fans around.

They need to hit NPD top 10 release month.

I say if they are double million sellers, if they outsell Petz and MySims, third parties will begin to take notice of the Wii as a hardcore console.

However, until Wii shooters start doing 4-5 million, it's not going to get many exclusive FPS games.

I'd say Conduit need to hit about 700k-800k in it's first month to 6 weeks, at full retail price. It could do a million but if it trickles its way there over 5 months of strongish legs with retail prices cut no ones going to be wowed.

Mad World I'm not sure, it's hard to believe imo that it can sell at all when you look at the sales of Okami and Zack and Wiki (Er, it made a loss *shrug*). Third parties hopefully won't write it's bad sales off to the core audience not being there as oppose to its nishe appeal if it should flop.

The OP's posed question is viewable from so many angles, it's hard to determine.

To cause an effect in the media or for NPD to be noticed, either one or both games need to sell a million (that's newsworthy.)

For the HD fans to notice the new surge, it'll have to reach Mario Galaxy levels. Indeed, for fans of both consoles I believe a violent game should be on-par with the mediums biggest franchises. It's the same reason why some people will mention LBP for a "casual game" to show that casual can sell on the PS3 - because it reached Resistance-like sales.

And for this forum... well, it will be a mix. The wii-fans will claim succes as soon as both games hit over 500K one month. The HD fans will not or at least, lower the wii-fans enthusiasm.

I'll say for Madworld - 450K first month, 700K second month, and very optimistic: 1.3 mill lifetime.

Conduit: 700K first month, 950K second month, and 2 mill lifetime overly optimistic.

I'll say that legs are in effect, but no ever-green terrace.

Publishers who still need a "message" to make core wii games are irrelevant for the wii market now and in the future.

A good game needs at least 1-2 years to be made. But in 1-2 years we have the next console generation. So publisher who missed the wii market now have no chance to make the big money in the wii market like sega will do.

It's simple, really. Vote with your wallet.