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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst - latest financial data shows that Wii growth may be over, Nintendo knows something big has gone wrong

@NJ5: Hasn't that been the case the whole gen this far? Finding excuses such as:
Exchange rate between EUR and USD.
Bubble is going to burst.
Negative sales late this gen.
HDTV penetration.



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venepe said:
I wouldn't pay too much attention to this article as the entire article is based on the comments made by analyst Hiroshi Kamide. the article further says that Mr. Kamide is the "only major analyst with a 'sell' recommendation on Nintendo".

Therefore, he is just defending his stance on the matter and is not the overall opinion of the analyst community.

.

 



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@OP:
Again, judging sales performances during the normal after Xmas rebound is quite silly, and knowing Nintendo doesn't absolutely need to cut prices and retailers don't need to discount Wiis to sell them even during sales, most people wanting one in this period should most probably have bought it before Xmas.

Edit: And sales being hit by the crisis and profits hit by crisis and weak $ is normal fo Nintendo too, but it remained first anyway.



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If this is true (and I doubt it) it reminds me of the squeeze theorum in calculus. So long to the entire industry.



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When you look at the mentality of Japanese consumers, Wii Sports Resort might be a vital title to sustain sales this year.



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wakawakawa said:
"On the most widely read gaming websites, there are few forthcoming Wii titles generating the sort of excitement that preceded the release of Mario Galaxy or Smash Brothers."

Joke??? Or do they not understand who is buying the Wii?

Yeah they don't understand who is buying the Wii. There was absolutely no excitement coming upon the release of Mario Galaxy and Smash Bros. I mean only 8 million people bought Mario Galaxy and 8.5 million bought Smash Bros. It isn't like there's an audience that is eagerly anticipating games like this on the Wii. Not like those other consoles that have fans that get excited over those big games that only go on to sell 1 or 2 million. I guess Wii owners have that disorder where they speak with their wallets instead of their mouths.

 



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alfredofroylan said:
This article is based on Japan sales, not oversaes. So yes Wii, PS2 and PS3 had quite a drop the last holidays. Only the 360 saw a boost but a really small one.

 

The article made no sense until I read this. The Wii seems to have already peaked in Japan, and sales have been declining. Of course, the Wii also has a bigger percentage of marketshare in Japan than it does elsewhere. I think a lot of that has to do with supply; Nintendo has been meeting demand better in Japan than elsewhere. If Nintendo had consistently met demand in the US, I think the Wii would have already peaked here. It would have sold countless millions more consoles, but it would have peaked. As it is, I expect the Wii to peak during holiday 2009 instead.



The rapid growth is over in terms of software. In 2004 to 2008 Nintendo went from shipping ~115m units of software to shipping 350m units of software.

They'll come in around 400m this year but thats not rapid growth. I think if Wii gets to 30-35m in a year with an 8 or 9 attach rate while DS declines only slowly they'd have a shot at 500m or 550m in a year but thats probably the limit. I have their software shipments peaking at 500m in a year but thats a hell of alot of software and its not sustainable in this industry yet.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

So this is based upon Japanese sales? But the situation is completely different overseas, NA and Europe numbers are strong.
But, one thing stands out to me; I always thought the Wii would have Japan as it's strongest market! It doesn't, that surprises me to this day.



alfredofroylan said:
This article is based on Japan sales, not oversaes. So yes Wii, PS2 and PS3 had quite a drop the last holidays. Only the 360 saw a boost but a really small one.

If it is, then this makes much more sense.



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