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Forums - Sales Discussion - given ckmlb "fab fifteen" which will sell systems and which will just sell?

I've taken the list of the "fab fifteen" from ckmlb threads:

Wii

Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Brothers Brawl
Metroid Prime 3
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles
Zack and Wiki: The Quest for Barbaros' Treasure

 

PS3

Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
Heavenly Sword
Ratchet and Clank: Tools of Destruction
Warhawk
Unreal Tournament III

 

X360

 

Bioshock
Blue Dragon
Halo 3
Mass Effect
Project Gotham Racing 4

 

 

1)which of those titles do you expect to be THE system seller? (choose just one for each system...btw only if you believe that there's a system seller indeed!)

2)greatest hit (by system)?

3)greatest surprise? (i mean the titles that in your opinion will perform much beyond expectations) 

4)greatest flop? (i mean the title that won't match expectations...again by system)

5)which system in your opinion will benefit more from fall/christmas lineup? (i mean: probably not every console has a single system seller...but the lineup could convince many to buy the system) 

6)BTW this could be the right thread to post your detailed sales predictions :P

   

 



2008 year end sales (made in January 2008):

44.2 M 27.1 M 20.8 M

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Ha, stole talonman's framework! (mostly because I agree with like 4/5ths of his answers.)

1)
a) Mario Galaxy
b) UT
c) Halo

2) Same answer as #1

3)
a) Zack & Wiki
b) Heavenly Sword
c) Mass Effect

4)
a) RE:UC
b) Warhawk
c) Blue Dragon

5) Wii

Number 4 is a tough question to ask about these kinds of games, I took it to mean which do you think will do the worst for its console though.



To Each Man, Responsibility

1.

Wii: Mario Galaxy: flagship titles sell systems. That's why they're flagship titles.

PS3: It doesn't have any system-sellers upcoming in my opinion, so it won't sell systems.

X360: Halo 3. Every one of the other games is a very niche seller: shooters for hardcore Xbox fans, Racers for racing people, Blue Dragon for Japan-mindset buyers. Halo is the most hyped series ever in all media, ignoring objective merits and drawbacks.

2.

Wii: Super Smash Bros Brawl, simply because it was the most popular on Gamecube and is likely to be the one with the most exposure when you invite your friends over.

PS3: Um, GTA4?

X360: Halo 3. Similarly, the predecessors were very popular on Xbox, so that's what you'd expect (watch Bioshock very carefully though)

3.

Wii: Metroid Prime 3. That is a very clever marketing tactic because Wii's audience is not used to a demo onslaught, so they'll go "I might give it a try", and even if they don't enjoy it they'll have paid for it.

PS3: Don't have enough experience to know - I'll guess R+C because it's an "answer" (...) to Mario platfomers.

X360: Bioshock. The reviews are... stunning. This will reach a larger audience than expected. I'd buy it if I could afford an Xbox 360.

4. Wii: ...I will say the first three I expect to be pure gold but the potential weakness is Metroid if they've made it too action-focused and linear. The other two don't have stratospheric expectations so however good/bad they are it won't be a "flop".

PS3: UT III because everyone will get it for the PC not the PS3 as Sony fans would expect because of "like the cell it's the best processor ever!!!". Yes it is for a console, but relative to today's midrange PCs it's not great.

X360: Blue Dragon. Once the Japanese-factor has worn off people will see the flaws in it and treat it as an average game. Just because it sold fairly well in Japan...

5. PS3. It's biggest weakness is that it doesn't have a lineup, and even the not-perfect titles shown will convince PS2-only people to buy it. It'll be a 100% increase in weekly sales... to half of Wii's Christmas sales.



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1.
Wii:SuperMarioGalaxy
PS3:UnrealTournement3
X360:Halo3

2.
Wii:SuperMarioGalaxy
PS3:UnrealTournement3
X360:Halo3

3.
Wii:ResidentEvil:UmbrellaChronicles
PS3:Uncharted:Drake'sFortune
X360:MassEffect

4.
Wii:Zack and Wiki:The Quest for Barboros's Tresure
PS3:I think they will do quite well.
X360:Blue Dragon

5.
Playstation3

6.
Wii
SuperMarioGalaxy=1million its Mario.
SuperSmashBrothersBrawl=2million its Mario.
MetroidPrime3:Corruption=500'000-1million MP2 sold half of what MP sold so this is on rocky waters.
ResidentEvil:UmbrellaChronicles=1million+ its ResidentEvil!
Zack and Wiki:The Quest For Barboros's Tresure=100'000-300'000 its gonna bomb.

PS3
Uncharted:Drake'sFortune=500'000-600'000 WW i have no idea.
HeavenlySword=750'000-1million WW called the "savior" of the PS3.
Ratchet&Clank:ToolsOfDestruction=2million WW its predeccsors sold over 2million.
Warhawk=750'000-1million WW hype and good reviews and the multiplayer focus will make it sell.
UnrealTournement3=1million(atleast)WW its UNREAL!

X360
Bioshock=1-2million WW hype and reviews are strong.
BlueDragon=300'000 WW it bombed in JPN where it was meant to be the X360 savior.
Halo3=5.5million WW sales have fallen since the 1st one.
ProjectGothamRacing4=750'000 WW the sales have fallen since the first PGR.



End of 2014 Hardware Predictions (03/03/14)

PlayStation 4: 12-15million

Xbox One: 7-10 million

Wii U: 8-9 million (Changed 01/04/2014 from 7-9 --> 8-9 million)

System Sellers:

Wii
Super Mario Galaxy
Super Smash Brothers Brawl
Metroid Prime 3

X360
Bioshock
Halo 3

Games that will sell well:

Wii
Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles

PS3
Uncharted: Drake's Fortune
Ratchet and Clank: Tools of Destruction

X360
Blue Dragon
Project Gotham Racing 4

Games that will not sell particularly well:

Wii
Zack and Wiki: The Quest for Barbaros' Treasure

PS3
Heavenly Sword
Warhawk
Unreal Tournament III

X360
Mass Effect



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all I'm going to say is Zack & Wiki will flop. Adventure games are dead and with good reasons, even the absolute best (Monkey Island, Grim Fandango, etc) barely ever made a profit.



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Guitar Hero 3 will outsell most of the games listed here.

 

 

Edit: The only games that you listed that will outsell Guitar Hero 3 are....

 

Halo 3

Super Mario Galaxy

Super Smash Brothers: Brawl

 

The rest of the games probably wont even come close to GH3 sales. 



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TalonMan said:
Sqrl said:



3)
a) Zack & Wiki

4)
a) RE:UC


Seems this is where our only disagreement is. The reason I had these reversed is because RE is an 'established franchise' and even if the game isn't that great, the 'casual' audience that is making up the large precentage of the Wii userbase at this point, would eat something like this up - it's something familiar to them (even if they're ignorant to the gameplay before purchase) if only in name alone.

Zack & Wiki is a brand new IP - and unless it get a serious marketing push, nobody is going to even know what the heck it is. I'm pulling for this game though as I really want it to succeed. I'm just not convinced that it will at this point... :(

 


Yup the big flip for me is mostly a personal thing tbh. People I know (and they love zombie games) are starting to get a bit worn out on the RE series. I think you definitely have the safer list but sometimes it is worth it to take a bit of risk to differentiate yourself =)

edit: PS - I think Z & W is the only budget priced game also...so that can't hurt it. 



To Each Man, Responsibility

1) System Sellers

Wii - predicting what will be a System Seller is actually hard because the system seems to sell out either way. Metroid, Mario and Smash could all help sell systems, but will we ever know?

Xbox - Halo 3 without a doubt.

PS3 - None of the above, really. Drake or Heavenly Sword could pull off a surprise win.


2)greatest hit (by system)?

Wii - Toss-up between Smash and Mario Galaxy. I think it all depends on if Mario Galaxy actually appeals to the new gamers.

Xbox 360 - Halo 3.

PS3 - Most likely Unreal Tournament or Ratchet and Clank, but again, Drake or Heavenly Sword could be a surprise hit.


3) Greatest surprise?
That all depends on your expectations, doesn't it? I think some people believe Heavenly Sword will be a huge hit, and others believe it will be a flop.  I guess biggest surprise would most likely go to one of PS3's unknown titles, since that's almost all they've got, or maybe Blue Dragon.

4) Greatest flop?
If it's based on expectations, then again, it depends on whose expectations. I think Zak and Blue Dragon both have the biggest potential to sell really badly. At the same time, I think a lot of people will be disappointed with the sales of Bioshock even though it will outsell Zak and Wikki and probably Blue Dragon, too.

5) Which system in your opinion will benefit more from fall/christmas lineup?
Probably 360, since the PS3 really doesn't have any proven sellers, and the Wii would sell like crazy even if the lineup sucked. That said, PS3 could benefit simply because the system really needs games.



Im sure Halo 3 will move systems. At work I know of at least 4 people waiting on this game before they go pick up an actual 360. This is why the theory of "everyone who wants Halo3 already owns a 360" seems very untrue to me.

I also think Heavenly Sword will move a good amount of PS3's.  



PS360 ftw!

Currently playing..........

Gears of War 2, GTA IV Lost and Damned, Little Big Planet (Yes I said I had no interest but my girl wanted to try it and we did and now Im hooked )