Interesting. I'd say Nintendo has a pretty easy 1st place, and the question is how much of a difference will be between Sony and Microsoft. At the current sell through rate, the PS3 can't ever catch the Wii. Actually, at the current sell through rate, the PS3 will have a difficult time catching the 360.

Sony needs another release similar to HSG5 in Japan, which has moved PS3 hardware up from the devastating 8-10k weekly to a much better 20k+ weekly. Only with better Japan support can Sony get an easy 2nd place worldwide.

But you're forgetting that for the first time in gaming history demand is going to completely vanish and no one will be buying Wii consoles by the end of 2008 while suddenly there will be 2 million PS3s sold a month by mid 2008.

Allthough it currently looks like Wii will be the victor this gen, let's not count out PS3 just yet. It's been less than a year since both launched, and sales could change a whole lot the next two years.

I don't see the PS2 dominating this gen, nor did the PS1 dominate last gen.

The original post... is completely ridiculous, in so many ways I can't possibly put it in words.

The problem with this theory is that PS3 sales are at Gamecube level at the moment. Even if sales double the PS3 wouldn´t sell at a great level.

That means at the time the next gen will arrive the PS3 will be selling at a weekly 30k rate worldwide. 50k at best, don´t kid yourself. No developer would support the PS3 with that numbers.

This type of logic doesnt even work and if this does happen it would be very weird.
The Sony "10 year plan" doesnt mean 2gens it means they support the console for 10years look at the PS1 it was supported for 10 years by Sony and the PS2 is pushing 8years and good games are still coming out for it and will easily last the 10year plan same as the PS3 will.

20 million sold only in 5 years? That is ridiculus, maybe 30 or 40 million.

@leo-j:
He is guessing sales wont change at all not even during a Christmas.

It is not very simple. There is one thing that is going to be a standard next gen. Motion Controls. Sony can not rely on the PS3 to get them through next gen. Their technology will be outdated next gen and the Wii will have hyped people for the second coming. If you think it is a fad you are sadly mistaken. Motion controls will be implemented in next gen consoles. People will decide to go with the one that's best and they will think Nintendo due to how familiar they are with it. They will not buy a PS3 because it doesn't offer anything new. They will have to put in motion controls better than the Sixaxis or they will be left in the dust due to outdated controls. They will have to release a PS4 with better technology and controls. And haven't you learned not to believe everything sony says?