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Forums - Sales Discussion - First day sales in Japan (1/22) - Fragile, Left 4 Dead, Zill O'll

so much for userbase argument eh? for the millions... And millions! of Wii FANS chanting hehe



 

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mibuokami said:
sc94597 said:

I can't really find any information on development costs. Red Steel held the title(I don't know if it still does) as the highest costing third party Wii game. So for fragile to cost as much or more I doesn't seem realistic. There isn't enough information as of now to tell us if it will fail or not.

 

From your statement I did some research and came up with this, I concede your original point, wii game appear a lot cheaper to make!

Below is a quote from THQ about wii development in general:

According to THQ Chief Executive Brian Farrell, while an investment in an Xbox 360 or PS3 game might be in the range of $12 million to $20 million on average, the money required for developing a title on the Wii can be as little as half that (or less), with an investment generally ranging from $5 million to $8 million. "It's that order of magnitude lower," Farrell explained to Reuters.

 

Considering fragile has been in development for at least 2 years, and will have higher than normal expenditure due to localisation. Lets put it at the higher end $8 million. Nowhere near the previously mentioned $12 million. (Again I concede this point: good spotting my friend!)

Assuming Namco makes say $40 per game (I think this is more than generous) they will have to sell at least 200k to break even.

Given that it sold only a pitiful 16k at its Japan debute I can easily see a lifetime sale of no more 100k there. NA will get this game eventually and might add another 100k or even more but as for Pal? lol good luck with Atari who just plain fail at localisation.

And remember 200k is to break even, up until that point Namco would still be in the red. Seeing your investment of 2 years make a couple of buck would be deemed a failure by both the publisher and (more importantly) the shareholder.

If this game manage to sell around 300k copies then it could conceivably turn a profit so lets see how its sales goes.

This of course is all hypothetical, as we have no way of knowing the real cost of this game unless Namco come out and say it.

 

Eh, retailers most definetely do not make that much off of a Wii title. Or any game for that matter. Any more than %50 of the price is kinda high in my opinion.

 

And it seems impossible to that Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, and Zelda: Twilight Princess all costed less than Red Steel. I'd be completely shocked.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

@Outlawauron Twilight Princess was Nintendo's highest costing game I believe so it definitely costed more that red steel. Red Steel has the title of largest development cost in a third part wii game.



woopah said:
i think the main problem are the handhelds are stealing all the software sales. in japan at least i see the main competitor of wii not as the PS3 but the DS/PSP. as people of said it needs mainstream japanese games to build the audience. Now most of these have been annonced but until they are released games like fragile and trace memory will simply not sell. this can be seen at namco itself. niche titles such as fragile and that air combat game sell small whilst more mainstream games like tales sell extremely well

Tales is not a mainstream franchise and Ace Combat is not a niche franchise.

 



@Riachu He is probably talking about sky crawlers which sold 10k. And I would actually call tales of Mainstream in Japan. How many RPGs let along games sell close to 1million in Japan? It only seems niche because recent titles haven't did as good as, but still above average as far as games go in japan.



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outlawauron said:
mibuokami said:
sc94597 said:

I can't really find any information on development costs. Red Steel held the title(I don't know if it still does) as the highest costing third party Wii game. So for fragile to cost as much or more I doesn't seem realistic. There isn't enough information as of now to tell us if it will fail or not.

 

From your statement I did some research and came up with this, I concede your original point, wii game appear a lot cheaper to make!

Below is a quote from THQ about wii development in general:

According to THQ Chief Executive Brian Farrell, while an investment in an Xbox 360 or PS3 game might be in the range of $12 million to $20 million on average, the money required for developing a title on the Wii can be as little as half that (or less), with an investment generally ranging from $5 million to $8 million. "It's that order of magnitude lower," Farrell explained to Reuters.

 

Considering fragile has been in development for at least 2 years, and will have higher than normal expenditure due to localisation. Lets put it at the higher end $8 million. Nowhere near the previously mentioned $12 million. (Again I concede this point: good spotting my friend!)

Assuming Namco makes say $40 per game (I think this is more than generous) they will have to sell at least 200k to break even.

Given that it sold only a pitiful 16k at its Japan debute I can easily see a lifetime sale of no more 100k there. NA will get this game eventually and might add another 100k or even more but as for Pal? lol good luck with Atari who just plain fail at localisation.

And remember 200k is to break even, up until that point Namco would still be in the red. Seeing your investment of 2 years make a couple of buck would be deemed a failure by both the publisher and (more importantly) the shareholder.

If this game manage to sell around 300k copies then it could conceivably turn a profit so lets see how its sales goes.

This of course is all hypothetical, as we have no way of knowing the real cost of this game unless Namco come out and say it.

 

Eh, retailers most definetely do not make that much off of a Wii title. Or any game for that matter. Any more than %50 of the price is kinda high in my opinion.

 

And it seems impossible to that Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, and Zelda: Twilight Princess all costed less than Red Steel. I'd be completely shocked.

Um where did I say retailer making that much money? o_O

The THQ quote shows an average cost of development, and Nintendo game are obviously not average but above grade in both production value and cost. I am 'guestimating' the publisher's return not the retailer's profit.




mibuokami said:
outlawauron said:
mibuokami said:
sc94597 said:

I can't really find any information on development costs. Red Steel held the title(I don't know if it still does) as the highest costing third party Wii game. So for fragile to cost as much or more I doesn't seem realistic. There isn't enough information as of now to tell us if it will fail or not.

 

From your statement I did some research and came up with this, I concede your original point, wii game appear a lot cheaper to make!

Below is a quote from THQ about wii development in general:

According to THQ Chief Executive Brian Farrell, while an investment in an Xbox 360 or PS3 game might be in the range of $12 million to $20 million on average, the money required for developing a title on the Wii can be as little as half that (or less), with an investment generally ranging from $5 million to $8 million. "It's that order of magnitude lower," Farrell explained to Reuters.

 

Considering fragile has been in development for at least 2 years, and will have higher than normal expenditure due to localisation. Lets put it at the higher end $8 million. Nowhere near the previously mentioned $12 million. (Again I concede this point: good spotting my friend!)

Assuming Namco makes say $40 per game (I think this is more than generous) they will have to sell at least 200k to break even.

Given that it sold only a pitiful 16k at its Japan debute I can easily see a lifetime sale of no more 100k there. NA will get this game eventually and might add another 100k or even more but as for Pal? lol good luck with Atari who just plain fail at localisation.

And remember 200k is to break even, up until that point Namco would still be in the red. Seeing your investment of 2 years make a couple of buck would be deemed a failure by both the publisher and (more importantly) the shareholder.

If this game manage to sell around 300k copies then it could conceivably turn a profit so lets see how its sales goes.

This of course is all hypothetical, as we have no way of knowing the real cost of this game unless Namco come out and say it.

Eh, retailers most definetely do not make that much off of a Wii title. Or any game for that matter. Any more than %50 of the price is kinda high in my opinion.

 

And it seems impossible to that Super Mario Galaxy, Super Smash Brothers Brawl, and Zelda: Twilight Princess all costed less than Red Steel. I'd be completely shocked.

Um where did I say retailer making that much money? o_O

The THQ quote shows an average cost of development, and Nintendo game are obviously not average but above grade in both production value and cost. I am 'guestimating' the publisher's return not the retailer's profit.

Gah. I made a typo. I meant the publishers definetely don't make that much. My mistake.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

outlawauron said:

Gah. I made a typo. I meant the publishers definetely don't make that much. My mistake.

 

I know that, which is why I said very generous ^_^, I'm trying my hardest to make Fragile's position less... fragile (cheek).

They probably see less per sale, but remember that we are also refering to Yen and not Dollar for the Japan profit, so it might average out. (Again optimistically)




Other than L4D.. nothing impressive here.



4 ≈ One