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First day sales in Japan (1/22) - Fragile, Left 4 Dead, Zill O'll

Forums - Sales Discussion - First day sales in Japan (1/22) - Fragile, Left 4 Dead, Zill O'll

Fragile is a total bomb. Didn't expect that.



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I wonder if Left 4 Dead will do better than most FPSes. The heavy teamwork might suit the culture well.



so much for 2 years in the making, though I hope it sells more in the longer run...

http://www.nintendowiifanboy.com/2008/12/30/fragile-30-hours-long-no-expense-spared-on-development/





is Fragile really a niche game? Then maybe I should call WKC a niche game cuz it's an MMO as some people say ROFL



 

Poor Fragile, flopped so badly (and undeservedly).



Currently playing on PS3: God of War III

Currently playing on Xbox360: Final Fantasy XIII

Currently playing on NDS: Chrono Trigger

frictionini said:
so much for 2 years in the making, though I hope it sells more in the longer run...

http://www.nintendowiifanboy.com/2008/12/30/fragile-30-hours-long-no-expense-spared-on-development/





is Fragile really a niche game? Then maybe I should call WKC a niche game cuz it's an MMO as some people say ROFL

 

 

From the way it's turning out it probably is destined to be more of a "cult" hit than a mainstream hit; that is to say, it will not do impressive numbers but will find a niche of fans.  like I said, though, I'm waiting until the latest sales charts come in before declaring this a disaster.



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scottie said:
Any game that sells above 45 or 50% of its initial shipment on day 1 clearly isn't a bomb.

0-33% = bomb
34-67% = sold as the developer anticipated
68-100% = developer underestimated their own game

 

Unless it sells diddly after. Also, it's the publisher that sends out the shipments, not the developer



Louie said:
shams said:
Here we go again :P

50% of total shipment on day#1 is NOT bad. Blame the retailers more units were not ordered. If they get close to 100% shipment sellouts, the games are definite successes.

 

*cries* oh no, not you as well shams! A sellout of the first shipment doesn't mean the game was a success. If Namco projected 500k units the game won't be a success even if a second shipment of 100k unit sells out as well.

The publishers are the ones talking to the retailers. They know how many units retailers will order. If they order 100k, they will NOT have "expectations" for 500k lifetime sales.

If they do, its up to the publisher to convince the retailer to take more units - cheaper per-unit price, or some other deal.

...

Obviously, sell-through rate does not determine success/failure on its own (ship 1 unit, sell 1 unit...). But you can't expect the title to sell more units than its shipment figure in the first week (unless a second shipment comes in).

From the look of it, the retailer order figures were pretty close to right (based on sales).

...

Just because its an RPG, doesn't mean its going to "sell well" in Japan. Its a new IP, and the Wii has had less RPG love than the other consoles. The RPG market is becoming rather segmented - and you need a big name to sell heaps of units.



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shams said:
Louie said:
shams said:
Here we go again :P

50% of total shipment on day#1 is NOT bad. Blame the retailers more units were not ordered. If they get close to 100% shipment sellouts, the games are definite successes.

 

*cries* oh no, not you as well shams! A sellout of the first shipment doesn't mean the game was a success. If Namco projected 500k units the game won't be a success even if a second shipment of 100k unit sells out as well.

The publishers are the ones talking to the retailers. They know how many units retailers will order. If they order 100k, they will NOT have "expectations" for 500k lifetime sales.

If they do, its up to the publisher to convince the retailer to take more units - cheaper per-unit price, or some other deal.

...

Obviously, sell-through rate does not determine success/failure on its own (ship 1 unit, sell 1 unit...). But you can't expect the title to sell more units than its shipment figure in the first week (unless a second shipment comes in).

From the look of it, the retailer order figures were pretty close to right (based on sales).

...

Just because its an RPG, doesn't mean its going to "sell well" in Japan. Its a new IP, and the Wii has had less RPG love than the other consoles. The RPG market is becoming rather segmented - and you need a big name to sell heaps of units.

 

 

And that "big name" is something that begins with an "M" courtesy of a certain company called CapCom.  Oh wait, I'm forgetting the DQX announcement from Enix.



shams said:
Louie said:
shams said:
Here we go again :P

50% of total shipment on day#1 is NOT bad. Blame the retailers more units were not ordered. If they get close to 100% shipment sellouts, the games are definite successes.

 

*cries* oh no, not you as well shams! A sellout of the first shipment doesn't mean the game was a success. If Namco projected 500k units the game won't be a success even if a second shipment of 100k unit sells out as well.

The publishers are the ones talking to the retailers. They know how many units retailers will order. If they order 100k, they will NOT have "expectations" for 500k lifetime sales.

If they do, its up to the publisher to convince the retailer to take more units - cheaper per-unit price, or some other deal.

...

Obviously, sell-through rate does not determine success/failure on its own (ship 1 unit, sell 1 unit...). But you can't expect the title to sell more units than its shipment figure in the first week (unless a second shipment comes in).

From the look of it, the retailer order figures were pretty close to right (based on sales).

...

Just because its an RPG, doesn't mean its going to "sell well" in Japan. Its a new IP, and the Wii has had less RPG love than the other consoles. The RPG market is becoming rather segmented - and you need a big name to sell heaps of units.

I think what Louie was trying to say is that the initial expectation of sale comes WELL before shipment numbers are confirmed via retailer's order. Every game has to have a budget and an expectation to sell enough copy of the game to make profit over the said budget.

Given that Fragile was a fairly high budget wii game by the developer's own admission, it is very unlikely that they began the project with the expectation of selling such a tiny figure.

 




shams said:
Louie said:
shams said:
Here we go again :P

50% of total shipment on day#1 is NOT bad. Blame the retailers more units were not ordered. If they get close to 100% shipment sellouts, the games are definite successes.

 

*cries* oh no, not you as well shams! A sellout of the first shipment doesn't mean the game was a success. If Namco projected 500k units the game won't be a success even if a second shipment of 100k unit sells out as well.

The publishers are the ones talking to the retailers. They know how many units retailers will order. If they order 100k, they will NOT have "expectations" for 500k lifetime sales.

If they do, its up to the publisher to convince the retailer to take more units - cheaper per-unit price, or some other deal.

...

Obviously, sell-through rate does not determine success/failure on its own (ship 1 unit, sell 1 unit...). But you can't expect the title to sell more units than its shipment figure in the first week (unless a second shipment comes in).

From the look of it, the retailer order figures were pretty close to right (based on sales).

...

Just because its an RPG, doesn't mean its going to "sell well" in Japan. Its a new IP, and the Wii has had less RPG love than the other consoles. The RPG market is becoming rather segmented - and you need a big name to sell heaps of units.

So you are saying that developers know their game will flop and lose money before they release it?