Those who do say that shouldn't be using this game's sales to judge console RPG performance on the Wii in the first place, considering the fact that it's a fairly "improper" RPG as well.

@ zleep. Ok, i'm hoping it has legs. You did mention a long and fairly hurtful (for the publishers) list of titles that flopped in Japan. Think it will do a bit better than most of those games. Still pretty early days though, can still hope it can develop some legs.

@Peachbuggy: And I forgot to add games like Sonic Unleashed, Sonic and the Secret Rings, NiGHTS, Soul Calibur Legends, Zack&Wiki, No More Heros, Captain Rainbow, Castlevania Judgement, Samurai Warriors Katana, Devil Kings Heroes, Tatsunoko vs Capcom, Bleach Versus Crusade, both RE ports and a lot more. It looks like that for a core game to succeed in Japan on the Wii, what is needed is that the game should be in a very famous and big franchise, if not it will flop.

My aforementioned reasoning is why I believe that neither FFCC: EoT nor Trace Memory will sell much in the coming weeks, and it shouldnt feel like a surprise. In fact people should take a good look at my post and realize what does and what doesnt sell on the Wii.

Big things like Samurai Warriors 3, MH3, MHG, Wii Sports Resort, DQX, the next Tales of game, FFCC:TCB will do good, very good.

Games like Dead Rising, FFCC:EoT, Trace Memory, Sonic & The Black Knight, Madworld, Arc Rise Fantasia, Little Kings Story, Kizuna, the other Haruhi game, Sin & Punishment 2, Punch-Out!!, Phantom Brave will struggle to get some decent numbers.

What the Wii needs, and needs fast is some big franchises to arrive. So far no third party has risked itself, all the Wii got were spin-offs. Capcom, SE, Koei, Namco are all trying, and late this year and early next year, Wii will see its first bunch of main series games from big franchises. Theres no doubt they will sell.

@ peachbuggy

I think you should read this whole thread. JRPGs do not have legs, on any console. Look at Tales of Symphonia 2. It couldn't even double it's first day.

Well Fatal Frame IV is the best selling fatal frame in Japan so I don't think that is a good example. Rune Factory Frontier sold about 100k less than the DS titles, which considering that  the Wii is NOWHERE near as big as the DS(handhelds hold the japanese market, which also surpassed PS2 in Japan HW sales) that is good. The series was already niche to begin with. Same goes for harvest moon. Tenchu you have a point. Naruto...can't find any Japanese data for it on this site, the sales of other regions are high though(one game passing a million). Disaster is a new IP that had barely any hype or advertisment, other than a few new videos a week before release after absolutely nothing shown on the game for two years. The problem imo isn't that the Wii doesn't have the audience for these games, it is that the audience is so small there will be similar sales on all consoles. Fragile is nowhere near a mainstream game. Seeing as it's first day is similar to that of other games developed by Tri Crescendo, some of which have a much broader apeal than Fragile I'm satisfied.

I agree though that games don't sell too much after their first week, I disagree that it will only sell 5k more the rest of the week. I see it finishing the week off with 25k putting it in line with a similar game in terms of audience size, Fatal Frame IV. I think then it might be able to pull of Fatal Frame IV's number's lifetime or close to which is about 80k.

@Also at your other post

Sonic unleashed pulled off less on PS360. This means it is NOT only the Wii. Actually after looking the PS2 might be the same as well. 

Sonic and the Secret Rings, the same as unleashed except not a multiplat.

NIGHTS, you have a point here.

Soul Calibur legends, good thing it didn't sell well, the game looks horrible. Maybe that is why it didn't sell good.

Dead Rising will sell poorly(don't know about fail) because it is a cheap rip off of the original. Capcom expects it to sell though because of resident evil 4's sales, and they are changing the game to Resident Evil 4:Dead Rising edition.

FFCC:EoT, I don't know if you haven't noticed but the Crystal Chronicles series isn't small at all. It's not the biggest series but it sells good numbers. The DS will probably get the majority of the sales, but if it was exclusive to the Wii(with the only thing being changed is the graphics) I'm almost certain it would sell similar to RoF numbers. It definately won't sell Fragile numbers though, because the series like I mentioned earlier has a broader appeal.

No More Heroes is the best selling suda 51 game by ALOT.

Samurai Warriors Katana You have point here, but to be honest I never even heard of the game until now, so maybe advertising and hype is the problem and not userbase demographic.

Captain Rainbow,  adventure games don't sell well at all anymore. Especially those that are announced a month before release, are low budget, had no advertising, and has a niche appeal.

Devil King Heroes never heard of it until now, but it looks like a port, not even going to mention why that is a problem it should be obvious.

Tasunoko vs Capcom has been out for 5 weeks and still selling ok, I could see it reaching 90k-100k lifetime. That is slightly dissapointing sales, but nowhere horrible, and I don't think it would sell too much better if at all on the HD Consoles.

Bleach Versus Crusade is dissapointing, but looking at shattered blade sales there was some good legs, it leveled at 2-4k after week 5, so there is a good chance Versus Crusade would do the same numbers as Shattered Blade or even higher.That was around 80k which isn't bad at all. Let me say this again too, I don't see the game selling too much more if it was on the HD Consoles or even more at all.

The Wii version of Resident Evil 4 sold 140k, the PS2 Version 490k, and the GC version 220k. Now, yes it was outsold by the PS2 and GC versions, but it was also a port, and the Wii has/had a much lower install base in Japan than the PS2, and I think at the time of release it was comparable to GC's.Great numbers, much higher than what I would have predicted.

Zack&Wiki Pretty much revived a dead genre on consoles. Very Niche. Not because it isn't a big series, but because it's in a genre that isn't big.

Dead Rising will sell poorly(don't know about fail) because it is a cheap rip off of the original. Capcom expects it to sell though because of resident evil 4's sales, and they are changing the game to Resident Evil 4:Dead Rising edition.

FFCC:EoT, I don't know if you haven't noticed but the Crystal Chronicles series isn't small at all. It's not the biggest series but it sells good numbers. The DS will probably get the majority of the sales, but if it was exclusive to the Wii(with the only thing being changed is the graphics) I'm almost certain it would sell similar to RoF numbers. It definately won't sell Fragile numbers though, because the series like I mentioned earlier has a broader appeal.

Trace Memory, This is an adventure game right? I'm not really up to date on it. If it is then let me say again that it is the genre and not the game itself.

Sonic & The Black Knight  I expect it to sell the same as Sonic Unleashed and Sonic and the Secret Rings which are the two best selling Sonic games on current gen home consoles.

Madworld Definately won't sell well in Japan, and I don't think it will sell to high world wide either. This game limits it's demographic by being over the top violent, not because it isn't popular.

Arc Rise Fantasia This is going to be as big or bigger than ToS:Dotnw imo. It is a much much much more traditional RPG than what alot of the Wii rpgs are.

Little King Story If they take some of the pikmin audience it might sell well, really don't know about this one.

Kizuna I think this will do a little better than fragile, but not by too much.

Punch-Out It will do better than most games, especially because it is one of the games Nintendo is trying to push as big.

Sin& Punishment 2 Same as Punch-Out but to a lesser extent.

Another port? Of a game that isn't too well known and is also an SRPG? Yeah won't be surprised if it does worse than Fragile.

To conclude My main reason for this post is to show that while it is correct that niche games that aren't in popular series sell really low on the Wii, it is also true for other consoles, and it's even better to develop them for the Wii because they have a higher chance of finding their target demographic on the Wii because it has a much more varied demographic and a higher userbase than the HD consoles, there is less competition from big names since like you said right now the Wii isn't getting too many big series, and development costs are much cheaper because expectations for graphical standards are lower which is very important for smaller games.

My second reason is that the expectations of the sales of a game shouldn't be limited to Is the title in a popular series, or Is it a small new IP? There are many other factors such as what demographic it targets, how big this demographic is, the budget of the game, is it a port or not, how much advertising it gets, etc.

Finally I would like to mention that sales that are 50-100k in one region from a game that is very niche is not bad at all. Especially when it sells 45% of its shipment on the first day. Baten Kaitos II, another game partially developed by Tri Crescendo sold 20k LIFETIME and is a sequel to the first one(which doesn't have sales data but probably sold similar amounts). So if a game that small is able to make its suceed enough for a sequel then a game that sells a few times more than that should be thought of as a success and probably will be thought of as one. So to end this post I will state again that these are good sales for Fragile(only slightly lower than what I expected,which was 30-40k first week), and no matter how somebody puts it unless namco says that it failed, I'm going to think of it as a success.

^ I give that Essay a C+ Too much use of I and it seemed a bit too emotional and one sided.

Well I hope I used "I" enough. I was presenting my opinion and thoughts on the matter, with some facts and information to observe from.  As for it being emotional, I don't think I put too much emotion into it. If I was to read that speaking I wouldn't really be speaking in a sad, angry, or joyful voice but one that is pretty plain and montone.

Wow, that's all that shipped of Fragile? I wasn't expecting a lot but that still feels low.

Nice to see the TC trolling though. Always keeps this board lively.

Not saying you're wrong (although a bit on the negative side), but there is a good explanation:

Wii gets a lot of the smaller games. Probably good, but not the big series. The issue is that publishers need to build a genre on a console with their AAA series so later there's a userbase for the smaller games.

No one can expect Capcom VS and fighters to sell well when the big ones, Tekken, Soul Calibur, StreetFighter 4,aren't coming to that console.
Tales of Symphonia 2 sold very well, but the main game was on 360, hence the core Tales fanbase chose that one.
All the big JRPGs so far haven't been on Wii, so a niche RPG like Fragile will have trouble finding the audience.

Only now are we seeing the top series coming to Wii with a main game: Samurai Warriors, Tales, Dragon Quest, Monster Hunter will not only sell well, but also provide a userbase for smaller J-games.

Benga, if that's the case for the Wii, then why'd Dragon Quest Swords sell so well? It's still an RPG. A quasi-RPG, but one nontheless.