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The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

If we were not so close to the fiscal results (out in a week or so) I think ioi may have adjusted such a discrepancy... although being close on almost everything else would normally make me think perhaps NPD was just high on November but low on December for Wii, but the Wii is tough to understand due to it's dependance on supply in America.

To adjust only to go back on it again though would be an anoyance, so we wait another week.



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Esa-Petteri said:

@NJ5

Blahblah, blah.

Oops, you're right, I hadn't thought about that.

 



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alpha_dk said:
Esa-Petteri said:
Acevil said:
Esa-Petteri said:
So is wii really overtracked by a million? Just lulz. It has not been adjusted down? Does that also mean that ps2 did not lose record for one weeks/months sales?

 

 

  Something alongs the lines that the reason it won't be adjusted down was to keep these numbers aligned with the rest of the year. Also  something about waiting for shipment figures to make an adjustment.

I am confused. Does this site track shipped figures or sold to customers?

@NJ5

Blahblah, blah.

It tracks sold to customers, but we have information that the Wii sold out in large parts of america.  It would make no sense for, for example, Gamestop to be sold out while Wal-Mart has hundreds of thousands.  So, if there are constant sellouts at what we sample, then that likely holds true for the region as well.  Therefore, if Nintendo shipment figures are significantly above NPD, then we know something is probably wrong with NPD's numbers.  Hence, Brett will wait until shipment figures before doing any adjustments.

Also, a great way to get your point across is by responding 'Blabblah, blah.'  It really makes it sound like you know what you're talking about and are willing to accept the introduction of new evidence, even if it doesn't support your worldview.

 

Hey, I trust npd numbers more than a random guy on internet saying "wii sells everything nintendo ships". Also it is so amusing that some people don't want even to consider that there could be plenty of wiis sitting at the shelves.

 



@Esa-Petteri: For the record, I acknowledge the possibility that NPD is right and VGC is wrong. My doubt comes mainly from the fact that NPD stated sales were lower in December than November (per week).

In the end, it's not like 500k-1 million is a big deal for the Wii... It sells that in less than a month.

 



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Esa-Petteri said:

Hey, I trust npd numbers more than a random guy on internet saying "wii sells everything nintendo ships". Also it is so amusing that some people don't want even to consider that there could be plenty of wiis sitting at the shelves.

 

I get the feeling in 4 months time you will produce a grainy mobile phone photo of a small stack of Wiis from your nearest store.

(By the way I agree with you that NPD will be closer to reality... it's just an exceptionally odd November/December split,... Nintendo themselves claimed they were planning to ship 50% more than last year to the USA for the quarter, which works out just fine for the NPD figures. But had VGC not adjusted upward for November, I don't think the charts would be showing over 3 million for Wii now, so VGC would also be inline with Nintendo's target [higher than 5 million though because of Canada etc] )



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TWRoO said:
Esa-Petteri said:

Hey, I trust npd numbers more than a random guy on internet saying "wii sells everything nintendo ships". Also it is so amusing that some people don't want even to consider that there could be plenty of wiis sitting at the shelves.

 

I get the feeling in 4 months time you will produce a grainy mobile phone photo of a small stack of Wiis from your nearest store.

 

No need for that, there is even big stacks of wiis available where I live.

 



FishyJoe said:

I don't think NPD tracks Toys R Us either. I'm guessing Walmart is #1 and TRU is in the top 4 in terms of largest Wii Retailers. Best Buy and Gamestop are probably in the 2-4 range.

 

I think that is right. And if NPD uses old models to calculate those sales -- they just get them wrong because the Wii <> GC. (<> is the same as =|=). (This is a point that I have made time and time again -- often to no avail to those out there who beleive too strongly in NPD.)

Some people think that NPD is gospel because it is a secret, subscription service. In fact, it is an estimation tracking service -- just like VGC. The only difference is that VGC has much more transparency -- it is known when it makes corrections.

The financials in two weeks will be much more instructive than these numbers with respect to hardware.

In closing, remember that NPD can be wrong!

Mike from Morgantown



      


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Esa-Petteri said:
TWRoO said:
Esa-Petteri said:

Hey, I trust npd numbers more than a random guy on internet saying "wii sells everything nintendo ships". Also it is so amusing that some people don't want even to consider that there could be plenty of wiis sitting at the shelves.

 

I get the feeling in 4 months time you will produce a grainy mobile phone photo of a small stack of Wiis from your nearest store.

 

No need for that, there is even big stacks of wiis available where I live.

 

Well, considering NJ5 specified America and you're from the UK, and it is now halfway through January instead of December, it seems like that's completely irrelevant?  The point is, we're talking about a major holiday season in America.  There's evidence the Wii was selling out in many retailers here.  Therefore, if Nintendo reports significantly larger US shipments than NPD tracked, it's pretty clear what happened.  Hence, waiting for the quarterly reports before adjusting anything.



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@mike_intellivision: One thing that I have always wondered about is how NPD's corrections are reflected in the data they publish.

There are two possibilities:

1- Corrections are done by adding or subtracting the correction amount from later months' numbers.

2- Corrections are simply not reflected in the published data.

In case 1, we can't trust the monthly data. In case 2, we can't trust neither the monthly data nor the accumulated data.

Either way, there's something we can't trust about NPD numbers. In both cases, we can't trust the monthly data.

 



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alpha_dk said:
Esa-Petteri said:

No need for that, there is even big stacks of wiis available where I live.

 

Well, considering NJ5 specified America and you're from the UK, and it is now halfway through January instead of December, it seems like that's completely irrelevant?  The point is, we're talking about a major holiday season in America.  There's evidence the Wii was selling out in many retailers here.  Therefore, if Nintendo reports significantly larger US shipments than NPD tracked, it's pretty clear what happened.  Hence, waiting for the quarterly reports before adjusting anything.

Yeah, it is pretty clear. Ninty did not sell everything it shipped. Omg!