By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official December NPD 2008 Thread

mrstickball said:


2) As to the probability that such a blistering November could be followed by a 'poor' Christmas showing (in terms of a decrease of weekly sales): We hear each week how the American economy is in the tank, and I'd argue that those that are budget conscious - the average mainstream family - is probably cutting back. If this is the case, then the Wii would be the 1st place to go, I think. The 360 had the advantage of being cheaper + supply problems for the Arcade...It did phenominal given how much it's been getting beat by the Wii as of late.

So are you saying the Wii is not supply constrained any longer?

@Khuutra: Jan 22 for MS, Jan 29 for Sony/Nintendo.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Around the Network

Another week I think.



great number for all console. also software sales are good too




I'm not surprised at the low Wii Fit number. It's selling pretty good considering the price.


Everybody fighting over ps3 and xbox 360 numbers need to relax, because those aren't the numbers sony is concerned about.

The 60% drop is ps2 sales is what is killing sony right now because they make a profit on the ps2 hardware.
When they released the ps3 they assumed the ps2 would gradually decrease in slaes and the ps3 would continuously and gradually increase.
Thats hasn't been the case, and now there is a HUGE gap between the ps2 AND ps3 sales. The ps3 is not filling the financial void left by the ps2's huge decrease.

Considering the poor economy the ps2 sales should have been marginally higher than 400,000.

Recap - ps3 sales are not bad, but with the console still losing money and no ps2 cash cow, sony is in trouble.



Around the Network
NJ5 said:
mrstickball said:


2) As to the probability that such a blistering November could be followed by a 'poor' Christmas showing (in terms of a decrease of weekly sales): We hear each week how the American economy is in the tank, and I'd argue that those that are budget conscious - the average mainstream family - is probably cutting back. If this is the case, then the Wii would be the 1st place to go, I think. The 360 had the advantage of being cheaper + supply problems for the Arcade...It did phenominal given how much it's been getting beat by the Wii as of late.

So are you saying the Wii is not supply constrained any longer?

@Khuutra: Jan 22 for MS, Jan 29 for Sony/Nintendo. 

I believe that, given the immense number of consoles sold in November, it shouldn't be supply constrained by any noticible number of units. 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said:
NJ5 said:
mrstickball said:


2) As to the probability that such a blistering November could be followed by a 'poor' Christmas showing (in terms of a decrease of weekly sales): We hear each week how the American economy is in the tank, and I'd argue that those that are budget conscious - the average mainstream family - is probably cutting back. If this is the case, then the Wii would be the 1st place to go, I think. The 360 had the advantage of being cheaper + supply problems for the Arcade...It did phenominal given how much it's been getting beat by the Wii as of late.

So are you saying the Wii is not supply constrained any longer?

@Khuutra: Jan 22 for MS, Jan 29 for Sony/Nintendo. 

I believe that, given the immense number of consoles sold in November, it shouldn't be supply constrained by any noticible number of units. 

So you still think it's supply constrained, even if by a small amount?

Then we are still lacking a good explanation for why Nintendo shipped more Wiis per week for November than for December.

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

Hm.

Software sales for the 360 and PS3, both in December and year-long, seem kind of worrisome if you only look at the top ten.

I'm sure it looks a lot rosier with the top 100, but just the top ten is odd. MGS4 didn't place for the year.



megaman79 said:
bigjon said:
TheSource said:

I'm very suspicious of the Wii number given that December had five weeks and that November had four.

2.04m/4 weeks in Nov = 510k/week

2.15m/5 weeks in Dec = 430k/week

 

Does anyone really believe Nintendo would ship more in November weeks than in December weeks? If they just sent a massive allocation for November and hoped it would hold and sent a comparable allocation for December its a pretty terrible tactical decision.

 

exactly Source, dont you recall last year, when NDP came in VGC was like 400k high. Then a few week later when fiscals were release it was revealed that VGC was actually too low in the first place. I think what throughs NDP off in December for Wii HW is the fact they dont track 60% of the market, and Walmart and TRU is included in that. I know for a fact my TRU where I live was getting massive Wii shipments. You cannot tell me the Wii averaged less per week in November than it did in December. VGC might be a bit high, like 300k or something, but not 800k.

 

So you mentioned Wallmart, which is like the only big retailer in the US to be doing pretty well before Christmas while the rest are dying, and how NDP don't use them? Hmm, that suggests some major calculation errors.

And thinking of Wii, most family friendly, almost the cheapest, etc, its designed for the Wallmart recession customer.

oh, ya. It did not even cross my mind about the fact WM is actually doing better because of the economy.. hmm.

 



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

NJ - I'm trying to give Nintendo the benefit of the doubt. I don't find any reasonable explanation as to why Nintendo wouldn't have moved more units other than economic downturn, or user trends changing in terms of their blistering pace of buying Wiis - Maybe the surge in Wii sales in November allowed the Wii to be bought by those finally desiring to get their hands on it, without supply constraints?

That's not to say it's crested by any means, but may show that we're reaching some sort of level with supply and demand.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.