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Forums - Sony Discussion - CES 2009: Blu-Ray US adoption rate vs CD/DVD/VHS/TV/Color TV/HDTV

alpha_dk on 10 January 2009
Kasz216 said:
alpha_dk said:
Kasz216 said:
BrainBoxLtd said:
Kasz216 said:

Also that they were using PLAYER revenue.

What's the average DVD player cost now... 50 bucks max?

So just to be even they need to sell like... 8 DVD Players for ever PS3 sold?

 

 

 $30-$50 for non-upscaling seems to be the average now.

Let me see if I understand this chart right. They're comparing the "revenue" of Blu-Ray Players (And the PS3) to other devices? Is that correct?

If so shouldn't the DVD cloumn include revenue from all DVD enabled devices then? After all the PS3 is a gaming system as well, so if you're going to count it towards Blu-Ray, you count all devices with DVD playback. That'd include the 360, the PS2, the PS3 (lol), Blu-Ray players (they play DVD's), almost every modern home computer, certain cars that include DVD players with LCD screens.

Well it's Player revenue at that time.  So i screwed up on that one admittidly.  DVD players were kinda pricey.

I think... around 450 when DVD hit mainsteam... so 450 vs 600 isn't that bad.

 

In no way, shape, or form is it player revenue.  It is quite explicitly units shipped.

@MikeB: More evidence against 3M players shipped this year: they explicitly state 10.7 LTD US shipments, including PS3.  There's no way they shipped 3.1M standalones this year.

No it's not look at the bottom of that graph

"BD Player/PS3 value counts households- multiple device households counted once."

 

They are obviously using value in the generic sense, to mean number.  They are measuring percent of US households, after all, which isn't a set number.  If you actually click on the link MikeB provided, then you can see that they are providing numbers for units shipped at 10.7 Million (US only, including PS3).  10.7 minus the unsold units minus two-unit households gets you the household penetration, which is what they graphed.  It's not using player value at all.

Furthermore, the DVD player value is provided by CEA, which is the same source that I posted above, and is also in the DVDinformation link gavinb posted.  That tracks units shipped from manufacturers to retail.

Face it, the number is unit sales.  If they were using value, they would be laughed off the stage for not comparing all of them in year 2000 dollars, which isn't mentioned anywhere on the slide.  Also, if those were straight-up value, they would not put TV on there, because that kind of penetration converted to today's dollars would make the PS3 look like chump change.  It's unit sales, as is evidenced not only by the title of the graph but also every other slide they used.

 



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Kasz216 on 10 January 2009

That is a good point.

My point still remains however that blu-ray is behind DVD. Even the FAQ numbers point to that fact.

What's even more impressive is the fact that Blu-ray has been carried everywhere since the start.

When DVD launched it was only in select stores across the US in 97... like circuit cities and Best Buys.

Targets and K-Marts didn't get on the bus till later....

and Wal-Mart... the biggest retailer in America I believe didn't have DVD in stock until 1999.



MikeB on 11 January 2009

I have updated the original post.

Update:

"It turned out to be a phenomenal year for Blu-ray," said Tom Adams of Adams Media Research. In the fourth quarter of 2008, which is only too important for tech companies, U.S. consumers bought up 28.6 million Blu-ray titles."

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/16575.cfm

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090109/ap_on_hi_te/tec_gadget_show_blu_ray

According to Videoscan 22.7 million DVDs were sold for North America in 1999 as a whole.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

Star Scream on 11 January 2009
MikeB said:

I have updated the original post.

Update:

"It turned out to be a phenomenal year for Blu-ray," said Tom Adams of Adams Media Research. In the fourth quarter of 2008, which is only too important for tech companies, U.S. consumers bought up 28.6 million Blu-ray titles."

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/16575.cfm

http://tech.yahoo.com/news/ap/20090109/ap_on_hi_te/tec_gadget_show_blu_ray

According to Videoscan 22.7 million DVDs were sold for North America in 1999 as a whole.

 

Wow, excellent numbers for Blu-Ray, certainly much higher than expected.



redspear on 11 January 2009
MikeB said:

@ PostModGuru

get a similar quality on dvd


* 16 kbit/s – videophone quality (minimum necessary for a consumer-acceptable "talking head" picture)
* 128 – 384 kbit/s – business-oriented video conferencing system quality
* 1.25 Mbit/s – VCD quality
* 5 Mbit/s – DVD quality
* 15 Mbit/s – HDTV broadcasting quality
* 36 Mbit/s – HD DVD quality
* 54 Mbit/s – Blu-ray Disc quality

(BTW HD streaming services are hovering between DVD and HDTV broadcasting quality during optimal conditions)

Mike B. this is the most BS list I have ever seen. First forgetting that compression rates are different by codec DVD is actually up to 8 mbits per second smart encoding allows a variable bit rate that is much smaller. Also the average BD disc is NOT 54 Mbits/sec. In fact no where near it. It is closer to 18-26 Mbits with peaks of up to 54 Mbits a sec and once again it depends on wether they are using H.264, VC-1, or Mpeg2. In fact you show the average for HD-DVD for MPEG-2.

 

Have you ever worked with video a day in your life or are you just a Sony monkey? Seriopusly I am beginning to think you are an idiot.

 



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redspear on 11 January 2009

Welcome to the Real World Mike B

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16-bit DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (EU) The Bone Collector AVC 26.92 1:57:57 35,867,842,560 ~37,663,502,831 40.54 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit (EU) Bonnie and Clyde VC-1 16.05 1:50:46 15,575,973,888 ~22,392,056,478 18.74 DD AC3 1.0 192Kbps (DE) Born to Fight (2004) (no English subtitles) VC-1 21.96 1:35:39 20,518,594,560 ~22,622,180,088 28.60 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 16-bit Bottle Rocket AVC 31.99 1:31:43 26,195,122,176 47,472,543,911 38.08 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 (UK) The Boys from Brazil (1080p24) VC-1 20.02 2:04:58 20,364,146,688 ~21,121,531,372 21.72 DD AC3 2.0 640Kbps (JP) Brave Story MPEG-2 38.53 1:52:01 34,477,971,456 41.03 DD AC3 5.1-EX 640Kbps (JP) Breaking and Entering (2006) VC-1 23.90 1:58:48 30,560,040,960 ~32,487,336,770 34.29 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Bridge to Terabithia AVC 22.63 1:35:31 24,415,469,568 ~30,245,327,182 34.08 LPCM 5.1 6912Kbps 24-bit DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Broken Arrow (1996) MPEG-2 20.36 1:48:21 22,204,243,968 24,048,768,156 27.32 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Broken Trail - Part 1 AVC 22.25 1:32:52 21,707,606,016 45,784,929,136 31.16 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit Part 2 AVC 22.05 1:31:15 21,137,375,232 30.88 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit The Brothers Grimm AVC 15.98 1:58:27 20,649,080,832 24,602,454,828 23.24 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (EU) Bruce Almighty AVC 24.10 1:41:02 27,186,874,368*~30,136,114,526 35.87 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps The Bucket List VC-1 22.97 1:37:04 19,146,608,640 21,407,716,158 26.30 DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (UK) Bugsy Malone (1080p24) VC-1 24.99 1:33:51 19,965,474,816 ~21,423,709,304 28.36 DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps DD AC3 2.0 640Kbps (Mono) Bulletproof Monk MPEG-2 18.83 1:43:44 20,020,119,552 22,664,201,194 25.73 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Bullitt VC-1 17.13 1:53:45 16,239,169,536 29,681,616,306 19.03 DD AC3 2.0 192Kbps Burn After Reading VC-1 31.42 1:35:56 27,073,419,264 31,266,510,673 37.63 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid MPEG-2 32.07 1:50:27 31,817,699,328 40,163,432,228 38.41 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 DD AC3 2.0 224Kbps (Mono) Cars AVC 23.20 1:56:35 29,215,279,104 41,371,584,140 33.41 LPCM 5.1 6912Kbps 24-bit DD AC3 5.1-EX 640Kbps Casablanca VC-1 17.92 1:42:34 15,497,975,808 24,282,721,740 20.15 DD AC3 1.0 192Kbps Casanova (2005) VC-1 29.59 1:51:35 32,158,832,640* 35,707,336,406 38.42 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Casino VC-1 19.23 2:58:20 44,747,569,152 48,109,194,514 33.46 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Casino Royale (2006) AVC 24.52 2:24:12 35,118,618,624 47,306,624,902 32.47 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 448Kbps (DE) Casino Royale (2006) AVC 24.52 2:24:34 34,293,073,920 45,883,575,692 31.63 DD AC3 5.1 448Kbps (RU) Casino Royale (2006) AVC 24.64 2:24:20 37,323,122,688 49,163,230,782 34.48 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 448Kbps Casino Royale (2006) (Collector's Edition) AVC 24.52 2:24:12 38,203,281,408 40,734,220,905 35.32 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit (EU) Cassandra's Dream (1080p24) AVC 24.49 1:48:04 22,435,110,912 ~23,078,640,616 27.68 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps Cast Away AVC 33.67 2:23:46 43,892,133,888 47,595,751,448 40.70 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Catch and Release MPEG-2 24.76 1:51:36 27,395,119,104 34,377,949,890 32.73 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Category 7: The End of the World MPEG-2 13.00 2:51:40 23,084,089,344 23,402,583,748 17.93 DTS 5.1 1509Kbps DD AC3 5.1 448Kbps / LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps / DD AC3 2.0 192Kbps Chain Reaction MPEG-2 19.18 1:46:38 20,688,635,904 22,484,218,742 25.86 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 (JP) Chapter 27 AVC 33.07 1:24:24 25,365,479,424 27,486,931,948 40.07 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit The Cheetah Girls: One World AVC 26.13 1:27:44 22,485,479,424 45,697,444,084 34.17 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps The Cheetah Girls: One World Secondary Encode AVC 26.00 1:28:02 18,165,141,504 27.51 DD AC3 2.0 192Kbps Chicago AVC ~21.43 1:53:26~28,030,531,584 ~41,902,145,536 ~32.94 LPCM 5.1 6912Kbps 24-bit DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Chicken Little AVC 21.28 1:20:54 18,041,204,736 26,222,073,280 29.73 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (FR) Chicken Run VC-1 21.97 1:19:27 17,052,579,840 21,998,000,160 28.62 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 16-bit (DK) Children of Men AVC 26.99 1:49:15 23,797,481,472 24,045,140,100 29.04 DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (HK) A Chinese Odyssey Part One: Pandora's Box (1080p24) AVC 21.00 1:28:15 19,258,994,688 ~21,605,222,152 29.09 DTS-HD Master Audio 6.1 16-bit Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit (HK) A Chinese Odyssey Part Two: Cinderella (1080p24) AVC 17.99 1:39:44 21,373,396,992 ~23,865,588,596 28.57 DTS-HD Master Audio 6.1 16-bit Dolby TrueHD 5.1 24-bit (UK) Chocolate (2008) (1080p24) AVC 18.00 1:32:27 14,993,645,568 19,551,818,828 21.62 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 16-bit (DE) Chocolate (2008) (1080p24) (no English subtitles) AVC 18.00 1:32:25 17,035,057,152 ~23,256,713,184 24.57 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 16-bit Chris Botti: Live with Orchestra (1080i59.94) AVC 28.91 1:29:01 31,018,536,960 41,142,930,096 46.46 LPCM 5.1 13824Kbps 24bit/96kHz DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps / DD AC3 2.0 640Kbps A Christmas Story VC-1 25.86 1:33:23 19,617,699,840 21,897,223,204 28.01 DD AC3 1.0 192Kbps The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe AVC 25.81 2:22:51 40,534,935,552 45,025,418,656 37.83 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian AVC 19.02 2:29:58 32,334,280,704 48,701,288,490 28.75 DTS-HD Master Audio 7.1 (UK) The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian AVC 19.02 2:29:58 33,680,007,168 48,364,010,665 29.94 DTS-HD Master Audio 7.1 Chronos MPEG-2 22.97 0:42:34 12,141,803,520 ~12,507,443,494 38.03 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 96kHz DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (FR) Chrysalis (2007) AVC 19.45 1:33:58 17,412,575,232 ~23,249,959,083 24.71 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Chungking Express AVC 34.75 1:42:56 31,393,892,352 35,377,471,281 40.66 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 (HK) CJ7 AVC 23.94 1:28:21 22,424,174,592 ~23,087,641,816 33.84 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 16-bit Click MPEG-2 35.71 1:47:30 35,648,335,872* 40,962,814,968 44.21 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (UK) Cliffhanger VC-1 27.24 1:53:00 28,936,065,024 32,606,848,904 34.14 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 DD AC3 5.1 448Kbps A Clockwork Orange VC-1 18.98 2:16:36 30,735,618,048 47,696,232,002 30.00 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Close Encounters of the Third Kind (seamless branching) AVC 22.79 2:14:41 36,620,150,784# 49,688,551,851 36.25 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 24-bit (both tracks are upconverted from a 16-bit master) Special Edition (seamless branching) AVC 22.79 2:12:29 36,062,017,536# 36.29 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 24-bit (both tracks are upconverted from a 16-bit master) Director's Cut (seamless branching) AVC 22.85 2:17:13 37,348,374,528# 36.29 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 24-bit (both tracks are upconverted from a 16-bit master) Closer AVC 27.66 1:43:51 33,313,818,624#~41,668,499,704 42.77 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Cloverfield VC-1 30.42 1:24:40 24,852,836,352 42,229,320,336 39.13 Dolby TrueHD 5.1 24-bit (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion - Volume 1(no Engsubs)AVC 35.96 0:24:08 7,474,636,800 16,411,516,108 41.28 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion - Volume 2(no Engsubs)AVC 35.26 1:12:41 22,109,933,568 26,632,655,116 40.56 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion - Volume 3(no Engsubs)AVC 34.94 1:12:41 21,924,956,160 29,140,908,216 40.22 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion - Volume 4(no Engsubs)AVC 35.13 1:12:28 21,967,073,280 ~30,836,838,924 40.41 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion R2-Volume 1(noEngsubs)AVC 37.14 0:24:07 7,691,206,656 27,497,822,328 42.51 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion R2-Volume 2(noEngsubs)AVC 36.51 1:12:38 22,808,279,040 25,866,394,420 41.86 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion R2-Volume 3(noEngsubs)AVC 36.43 1:12:38 22,759,335,936 25,508,968,196 41.78 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (JP) Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion R2-Volume 4(noEngsubs)AVC 38.68 1:12:25 23,964,991,488 ~27,053,716,004 44.12 LPCM 2.0 1536Kbps (DE) Code Name: The Cleaner (1080p24) AVC 21.95 1:31:10 19,070,238,720 ~23,570,347,612 27.89 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 16-bit (DE) Columbus Day AVC 24.00 1:30:27 18,879,707,136 21,627,239,256 27.83 DD AC3 5.1 448Kbps Coma (720p59.94) MPEG-2 22.24 0:25:24 4,497,825,792 7,463,307,208 23.60 DD AC3 2.0 256Kbps Coming to America AVC 19.74 1:56:48 19,304,306,688 23,904,551,888 22.04 DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps (2007) Commando MPEG-2 24.64 1:30:15 21,063,813,120 ~22,955,547,958 31.11 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 DD AC3 2.0 448Kbps (2008) Commando MPEG-2 24.65 1:30:15 21,096,904,704 23,003,281,313 31.16 DTS-HD Master Audio 5.1 DD AC3 2.0 448Kbps The Company (2007) Disc 1 - Part 1 AVC 24.07 1:43:50 24,098,752,512 45,861,308,831 30.94 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Part 2 AVC 24.33 1:31:05 21,326,395,392 31.21 LPCM 5.1 4608Kbps DD AC3 5.1 640Kbps Disc 2 - Part 3 AVC 24.40


MikeB on 11 January 2009

@ redspear

Grow up redspear, it's just a Wikipedia copy & paste.

Regarding HD DVD and Blu-Ray both had the same codecs available for them, the Blu-Ray drive specs specify a minimal speed of 50% more the data transfer capable than the fastest HD DVD player which has been available, the PS3 Blu-Ray drive is faster than is needed for movie playback, 100% faster than HD DVD playback drives.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales

redspear on 11 January 2009
MikeB said:

@ redspear

Grow up redspear, it's just a Wikipedia copy & paste.

Regarding HD DVD and Blu-Ray both had the same codecs available for them, the Blu-Ray drive specs specify a minimal speed of 50% more the data transfer capable than the fastest HD DVD player which has been available, the PS3 Blu-Ray drive is faster than is needed for movie playback, 100% faster than HD DVD playback drives.

 

 Mike B,

 

I actually encode Media for these specified medias. I deal with thsi stuff everyday. What you posted was the biggest load of BS this side of the White House. I actually feel sorry for you.. Any Drive that is faster than 1x is faster than what is needed for movie playback. there was no difference in in encoding for HD-DVD or Blu-Ray in real world performance when it came to compression. No if you are talking RAW or Uncompressed you wouldn't being using a disc but tape or a P2 or HD.



redspear on 11 January 2009

 double post sorry.



Million on 11 January 2009

@redspear

 

mature post

"I actually encode Media for these specified medias. I deal with thsi stuff everyday.. Any Drive that is faster than 1x is faster than what is needed for movie playback. there was no difference in in encoding for HD-DVD or Blu-Ray in real world performance when it came to compression. No if you are talking RAW or Uncompressed you wouldn't being using a disc but tape or a P2 or HD."

your post

"I actually encode Media for these specified medias. I deal with thsi stuff everyday. What you posted was the biggest load of BS this side of the White House. I actually feel sorry for you.. Any Drive that is faster than 1x is faster than what is needed for movie playback. there was no difference in in encoding for HD-DVD or Blu-Ray in real world performance when it came to compression. No if you are talking RAW or Uncompressed you wouldn't being using a disc but tape or a P2 or HD."

 

Going on the offensive is uncalled for and detracts from your point.