An idea has been percolating in my mind today.  Microsoft has clearly done their best to wrangle marketshare away from Sony, and even in the off chance that Sony somehow catches up, they'll have achieved that goal.

Now, the reason that Microsoft wanted to tackle Sony is to keep them from making their product an all-in-one entertainment centre.

Nintendo has, in general, shied away from making their system a complete entertainment platform.  So why would Microsoft try to eat into their marketshare in the next generation?  Because, to me, it looks like Nintendo may be stealthily turning the Wii into one of those one-stop shops for entertainment that Microsoft feared from Sony.

In addition to games, here are the things that the 'games-only' machine can do:

-They are coming out with a free television channel that showcases 100% exclusive content, meaning consumers will be using it much more.

-They have news and weather channels, meaning less people are looking to their PCs for these things.

-You can surf the internet on your Wii, complete with a keyboard, dampening the need to use your computer.

-The Wii is the one system that gets everyone in the household together--a true 'entertainment centre'

Now, we can obviously already see some of the signs here.  They've moved to the mass market price point, emphasized 'casual' games, and (the piece-de-resistance) added cartoon-like people to represent you in the game. 

So, whether they're successful in the end or not, will Microsoft try to target Nintendo in the next generation, as they did Sony in this one?

Of course they will, it's already pretty apparent with their introduction of NXE.

the wii's chickens have come to roost

yes, but its going to be difficult though. Nintendo has really established themselves this gen, not only with Wii but the DS too. M$ has to be careful with their approach, they practicality own the hardcore crowd but if they become too casual then they may loose them.

I don't think it's a matter of next generation, they've already made the attempt this one (although rather late in the game)...

But I do think it goes without saying that MS won't make the mistake of writing off or ignoring Nintendo in the beginning of the next one.

Ouch. You don't want Microsoft against you. You just don't.

So, next gen, Nintendo will be brought down by Microsoft, while Sony is in the lead again? Then Microsoft will realise that whoever they aren't targeting is doing well and just give up on targeting anybody.

I never said they were going to be successful against Nintendo (they may or may not), as it has been just as much due to Sony's errors as Microsoft's successes that they have been able to take so much from Sony this gen.  And Nintendo knows a thing or two now about competition jumping all over them--they'll be doing their best to remain a step ahead.

I'm not sure what 'targeting' insinuates...

If it means more casual kid friendly games then most definitely yes.

But if you mean middle of the road graphics and motion controller technology as the primary focus of the console, then the 'hardcore' gamer in me hopes not. The current controller is really versatile for a wide range of applications and pushing the boundaries of technology with realistic graphics really blows my skirt up...sorry if that's shallow :(

It's true that the add-ons historically don't have good attach rates but if they include motion tech into the included 'joypad' similarly to the PS3 sixaxis...but actually support it, then yeah there's no reason why they wouldn't go this route, there's simply too many benefits to not include it. The problem with it's application on the sixaxis was that it was too reliant on the other controls/buttons on the controller - you can't simply wave the controller around which is where it's simplicity of use really opens up the market to other demographics.

Microsoft's opponents, such as Google and Apple, no longer seem to hold Microsoft in awe. I don't think Nintendo does either.

On topic:

I've been wondering a bit along those lines myself, for many of the reasons you listed. But ultimately, I don't see Nintendo being the same threat to Microsoft that Sony is. Sony's entire aim in the gaming market was to become the all-in-one entertainment box, so as to start making real money by selling you all of your entertainment needs. Gaming was the hook to sell you everything else.

Nintendo is taking baby steps in that direction, but for precisely the opposite reason. The stuff you cited aren't being included to independently make Nintendo money; I doubt Nintendo has any interest in creating the massive infrastructure required for that sort of multi-media empire, and setting that up would take at least a decade, if not much longer.

Instead, Nintendo is using these non-gaming features to lure people into gaming. Nintendo itself said that the "channels" are there solely to give folks a reason to turn their Wii on as much as possible, with the ultimate goal of getting/keeping them interested in playing games. Everytime you check tomorrow's weather on your Wii, there's a chance you'll pop in some game too, since you're already there.

Short summary: Nintendo's not interested in Microsoft's pie, so going after them would mostly be a waste of time and energy. The only Microsoft area I see being affected by Nintendo's rise is Direct X, and I don't know enough about that to say if it's worth waging an expensive war with Nintendo to maintain (or even how deep the threat goes).

No.

Microsoft's whole purpose for getting into the gaming business was to keep the Playstation from taking over the living room because it was a threat to the Windows platform - the PS3 was one more step towards being a PC replacement, after all.

The Wii is about as threatening to Windows as cable television is.