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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Dragon Qust 10: The Snowball Effect

It surprises me that so many PS3 and 360 minds are so calm about the announcement of Dragon Quest. I would be dead scared. The game will cut the lifespan of the HD Bros. It's not crazy to think that this game will create a snowball effect for Wii 3rd party.


The reaction is ubtle and different. Dragon Quest is most important to Japan, not to mention that this is on the heels of DQIX, so the outcries are long over. The rationalizations and fits of denial are obnoxious and conceited and can generally be summed up as:

1. "Japan/RPGs don't matter anymore" - Completely ironic and hypocritical in the face of the fact that some RPGs are selling better in the west than they have been in previous generations and that most of the people spouting his are the same ones that are celebrating the sales of games like White Knight Chronicles or Lost Odyssey.

2. "This doesn't matter in the west." - Japanese game made by Japanese developers for Japan isn't going to change the face of the western industry? Whoa! We had no idea.

3. "You're just gloating." - Probably the most obnoxious and useless of all the defenses. Basically assumes that no one plays Dragon Quest and tries to diminish the impact of the game by writing it off.

4. "It's not going to do anything." - The most basic, can be said in a variety of ways, most commonly by fanboys that recycle the PS3 "wait until" argument and magcally apply it to the Wii despite not having anything to back up it. Basically by saying this they're admitting that it's going to happen because they have to deny it in the first place, despite this already being a known occurance with previous DQ games.



Tag - "No trolling on my watch!"

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montrealsoon said:
Squilliam said:
 

There are ~30+ Individual million seller franchises on the Xbox 360 that are third party. To make a sequel to one of these games is probably a safer investment than the Wii at this point. Thats a significant portion of the best development talent which has already found success on the platform. Its a risk at this point to break apart the successful teams (30 developers vs 90 say HD vs Wii) especially considering in 3 years time the next generation will be upon us and they will need teams that size anyway for all consoles, even Nintendo's. Furthermore the development times and expenses are dropping rapidly, 36 months becomes 30 and 30 becomes 24 as the generation progresses.

 

Everything you say appears to be things you wish were true, but I see no evidence in the market showing so.

I am not denying that there are not good sellers on any platform, but as time goes by, the market for the Wii is growing so much larger that only a fanboy would ignore it.  Add to that the lowered development costs for the platform.

What are things we have actually seen in 2008:

 - many titles going multi-platform (shows the individual platforms aren't big enough)

 - high profile disappointments (HAZE, TOO HUMAN) that may cost companies their existance.

 - downsizing of the development studio's in many companies.  One merely can't say this is due to the recession.  It is occurring because these comapnies are going in the red.   Not all companies are downsizing right now; the wellaimed companies are doing very well.

 

Businesses can't ignore lower cost, lower risk, and larger market when planning to sell products.  You can, but you are a consumer, not a business.

 

 

 Look at games like CoD:WaW and the sales of the Wii version compared to the 360/PS3/PC versions.  It doesn't matter how big the Wii userbase grows if the majority of people that buy certain games in certain genres are on other systems.  How big would the Wii userbase have to be before a Madden Wii game outsold that of the HD consoles?  At the end of the day there are simply some genres that sell better on HD consoles and no amount of advertising or whatever excuse some people come up with for the Wii sales of such games is going to change that. 



Legend11 said:
montrealsoon said:
Squilliam said:
 

 

 

 

 Look at games like CoD:WaW and the sales of the Wii version compared to the 360/PS3/PC versions.  It doesn't matter how big the Wii userbase grows if the majority of people that buy certain games in certain genres are on other systems.  How big would the Wii userbase have to be before a Madden Wii game outsold that of the HD consoles?  At the end of the day there are simply some genres that sell better on HD consoles and no amount of advertising or whatever excuse some people come up with for the Wii sales of such games is going to change that. 

 

 exactly



BenVTrigger said:
Legend11 said:
montrealsoon said:
Squilliam said:

 

 

 

 Look at games like CoD:WaW and the sales of the Wii version compared to the 360/PS3/PC versions.  It doesn't matter how big the Wii userbase grows if the majority of people that buy certain games in certain genres are on other systems.  How big would the Wii userbase have to be before a Madden Wii game outsold that of the HD consoles?  At the end of the day there are simply some genres that sell better on HD consoles and no amount of advertising or whatever excuse some people come up with for the Wii sales of such games is going to change that. 

 

 exactly

How does a lack of the shooter demographic automatically mean that the Wii can't sell games as well?

Do you know what console shooter fans buy? This is not a good metric.



LOL, well done Smashchu2, you're a living trap, you made them all come out in this thread.
Well, I'm completely with you on the OP.
I'm not surprised by the reactions though, people have lived in denial since the start of this generation.
Some are still living in denial, using wishful thinking as facts to accomodate their cognitive dissonance.

PR from manufacturers have worked very well too, with this nonsensical floating rumour that japanese devs are now irrelevant, and that western ones caught up. I'm thinking exactly the contrary, and we can't both (me and the rumour) be right.
I see japanese devs the first to support the leading consoles, and the others supposedly better western devs all on the losers. Western devs which already are in a debacle, while japanese ones put out the best selling games of the generation (mostly thanks to Nintendo). To me, the outcome is obvious already.

It's funny that people talk about 3rd parties and their poor sales on the Wii. This is precisely the point. They didn't want to support it at first, and some never will, and they're left in the dust. This generation also clearly shows that they have no power, at all. To think that Nintendo, a single company dwarfed by the others, SINGLE HANDEDLY pushed its 2 consoles sales, the DS and Wii, for at least 2 years for each. If it wasn't for their 1st party games, both consoles would be dead by now.
That's a juggernaut already, better not even think of when the ball starts rolling. BTW, DQ X is already being developped. When the ball starts rolling, is when we will see those that didn't support the leading consoles getting crushed.



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Words Of Wisdom said:
bigjon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.

The only thing that could save the PS3 at this point is a time machine. 

The only "killer app" I see in this generation is Wii Sports (well, maybe Nintendogs too).

And I'm not an "HD fanboy" either.

Might you add BRAIN TRAINING?

 



montrealsoon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
bigjon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.

The only thing that could save the PS3 at this point is a time machine. 

The only "killer app" I see in this generation is Wii Sports (well, maybe Nintendogs too).

And I'm not an "HD fanboy" either.

Might you add BRAIN TRAINING?

Good point.  That's definitely up there.



montrealsoon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
bigjon said:
Words Of Wisdom said:
I think most of us realize that DQ10 isn't a real "killer app."

This is just another "The Wii will get serious 3rd party support when XYZ comes/happens" thread.

 I am sure you would be hail it as PS3 savior no. 67 if it were coming out on the PS3.

The West Still follows the east, especially the core gaming community.

HD fanboys down playing this are just in denial.

The only thing that could save the PS3 at this point is a time machine.

The only "killer app" I see in this generation is Wii Sports (well, maybe Nintendogs too).

And I'm not an "HD fanboy" either.

Might you add BRAIN TRAINING?

 

Add Wii Fit first then...

 



This entire argument affects Japan only. Moreso because the big franchises: Tales of 10, Monster Hunter 3, DQX will all be HUGE in Japan but not really all that big elsewhere.

So in Japan, yes, the WII is becoming THE system to own.

Anywhere else it still depends on the type of gamer you are. Generally both a Wii and one of the HD systems would be desired.



 

Legend11 said:

Look at games like CoD:WaW and the sales of the Wii version compared to the 360/PS3/PC versions. It doesn't matter how big the Wii userbase grows if the majority of people that buy certain games in certain genres are on other systems. How big would the Wii userbase have to be before a Madden Wii game outsold that of the HD consoles? At the end of the day there are simply some genres that sell better on HD consoles and no amount of advertising or whatever excuse some people come up with for the Wii sales of such games is going to change that.

Call of Duty has one major thing going against it: Call of Duty 4.  When Activision and Infinity Ward released CoD4 on the HD consoles, almost every fan of the game migrated to one of the HD systems to get it, and as long as CoD games keep appearing on the HD consoles, there is no reason for those dedicated fans to move to the Wii and play the Wii version; the only people who are left to buy the Wii version are people who have no strong opinion of the game.  It's not that the Wii fanbase is biased against the game, it's that the HD fanbase is biased in favour of it, because the developer's actions shaped the market that way.

If a company takes its big franchise to the Wii instead of the HD consoles, then the fanbase will buy a Wii, and then the situation is reversed; it's the Wii fanbase that becomes biased in favour of a game, and the HD fanbase holds no strong opinion.  This is why Nintendo does so well on its own systems; Nintendo fans know that their games (barring weird legal wrangling like what happened with the CDi) will never appear on another console, so they migrate to Nintendo's consoles.



Veder Juda is hand crafted from EPIC FAIL, and is a 96% certified Looney; the other 4% is a work in progress.