It's a nice dream, unfortunately - that's not how sales of game consoles have ever worked - they peak and they decline, hoping that sales are going to be the very same for 4 years in a row is a pipe dream.

One thing is for sure - the face that Sony system sales have declined from last year to this one isn't a good omen (what was the number for holiday sales so far? 20% less?)

CrazzyMan said: numonex, what the point to list developers, wich support with CRAPPY games?? I don`t see. GTA 4 - multiplatform game, multiplatform games don`t push sales by a LOT, like MGS4 did. Like KZ2 will, Like FFXIII will, like GT5 will and etc. BTW: Crazzyman you listed Eternal Sonata is CRAPPY? LOL.

Wow, I just see I have to double-react. Very well... here first:

We ask for devs because it undermines your point. You ask for support, they do support. True, quality and quantity are two different things but your first statement was:

"PS360 3rd party support >>> Wii support."

We just show you that the support is there thus tackling your point here.

I also like to mention that "beauty is still in the eye of the beholder". Really, give me one colourfull Super mario Galaxy over three gray-brownish KZ2's and Res2's any day.

And why are we no longer discussing the fact that the PS3 will not (or highly unlikely, will) sell 100mln by the end of 2012? 

CrazzyMan said: 1) PS3 behind of x360 by merely 7 mln. according to VG estimates. 2) PS360 3rd party support >>> Wii support. 3) PS3 is STILL most expensive console. 4) PS3 is YET to get BIG BRAND guns like FFXIII, GT5, KZ2. This year BIG BRAND games was only MGS4, which helped to sell A LOT PS3. 5) PS3 STILL get 3rd party Japan support. You people are delusional haters, which expect PS3 at 199$ sell less then Wii. Which BELIEVE, that AA games don`t matter to gamers.

These are always good for a post or two just for amusement...

1) Merely?  Perhaps you should say the PS3 is "merely" sitting at its biggest deficit to the 360 since the console launched?  Or that that deficit is merely growing at the fastest sustained rate it ever has?

Oh and you low balled the deficit by more than 500k units =P

2) Tell me, how do you think the PS360 third party support is working out for the PS3?  Because from what I saw this last year with projects moving to the 360 exclusively or going multiplat like FFXIII did...that kind of thing tells me 3rd parties aren't exactly excited or enthusiastic about spending a bunch of money or taking a risk on the PS3.  That's why you brought up the PS360 comparison, because the PS3 really needs the 360 as a crutch on this one.

3) And it always has been, and always will be.  And in case you weren't aware Sony recently fired some 16,000 people as they began looking for ways to cut costs due to the economic issues they're dealing with.  So what makes you think they want to lower the PS3's price right now and lower their revenue even more?  I'd say you'd have to be a bit delusional to think a company that is strapped for cash and cutting fat anywhere it can would be looking to cut its own revenue stream voluntarily with no immediate or even short term gain.

4) Well FFXIII is going to be diluted due to the multiplat issue, and GT5 and KZ2 are not going to save the console...sorry they simply aren't going to do much of anything.  KZ2 and GT5 would be doing very well if they managed to have the same impact combined as Halo 3 did alone.  Of course with FFXIII hitting JP late in '09 at the earliest and even longer for NA & EU (and on two consoles instead of one), and GT5 headed for 2010 in all regions it's pretty clear that neither of these are going to be helping out much, if at all, in 2009...and maybe not even 2010. KZ2 will hit in '09 though and it will give a small and short lived burst in hardware sales...but not much else.

5) Have you looked at the JP announced/release date list recently?  The Wii is dominating JP 3rd party support right now.  There have been very few PS3 games, let alone exclusives announced recently because the Wii has been sucking up all of the support thanks to its much larger installed base, much lower cost to develop for, and a risk-averse market.

 

Well, I'm not delusional since everyone seems to agree on what the sales numbers are and I'm certainly not a hater given I was accused of being overly optimistic for the PS3 this holiday (and it has been made painfully obvious that I in fact was far too optimistic). 

The PS3 won't be at $199 for at least another 18-24 months at the absolute earliest so it's pretty moot to bring it up. But when it does hit that price point (more likely in 30 to 36 months) the Wii will easily outsell it and probably still by a multiple of 2 or more.

As for AA games not mattering to gamers?  Of course they matter to gamers....but gamers are getting those games on the 360 and the Wii as well as the PS3...unfortunately for Sony gamers are getting those games in much larger numbers on the Wii (and to a lesser extent the 360).  And that's the bottom line, people vote with their wallets in this industry and the software sales say the PS3 is sucking wind on the revenue charts...that's just a fact. 

So either you're saying PS3 gamers don't like games, or those gamers are finding their games in other places. You pick which, neither bodes well for your prediction though.

"PS360 3rd party GOOD GAMES support >>> Wii support."
Fixed. Now, how you will spin it out?LittleBigPlanet and Valkyria Chronicles over Super Mario Galaxy any day. So. WHY you think, that 299$ or 199$ PS3 will sell worse, then Wii ?

Good thing people are not like me. If everyone was like me, there would be no feeding of the troll. But since people are not like me, some will actually argue with him and it's giving me some entertainment so far.

LOL at this thread.

Once the ps3 supply problems are sorted it will be saved.
Once the firmware update is released the ps3 will be saved.
Once Lair is released the ps3 will be saved.
2008 will be the year of the ps3
Once Heavenly Sword is released the ps3 will be saved.
Once Drakes Fortune is released the ps3 will be saved.
Once MGS4 is released the ps3 will be saved.
Once Haze is released the ps3 will be saved.
Once LBP is released the ps3 will be saved.
Once Home is released the ps3 will be saved.
2009 will be the year of the ps3.

CrazzyMan said: @shams, it will be around 3 mln. by the end of January 2009 in Japan. Japanese Christmas boost end later then in west. And come on, BIGGEST PS3 game in Japan - FFXIII is only to be released in 2009. AND PRICE, PS3 hasn`t reached even 29k yen price in Japan, that will help a LOT, same for SLIM version. As i said - on AVERAGE, that means it can sell 3 mln. in 2009, and 5 mln. in 2010. PS3 is ONLY HD console in Japan, Wii and PS3 CAN co-exist. :)

Crazzy,

Your past history with various posts and threads makes it 'pointless' to attempt to have a proper discussion with you. That said, I'll answer this:

The PS3 has *already* had around 80% of the "megahits" released on it, that matched the top sellers from the PS2 generation in Japan. People love to ignore the already released titles - I have compiled a list before, and it is *very* significant. The main games missing are FF & GT - and Prologue has already been released (so most GT fans will already own it and a PS3). Many of the other games simple will NOT come to the PS3 - anytime soon anyway, or in an "exclusive" form that the PS2 was so priviliaged to get (i.e. DQ, RE, ... even FFXIII!).

The PS3 has proven beyond a doubt, to be the most *expensive* console to develop for - meaning a lot of software units need to be sold to break even. Only 1 title has broken 500k, 4 titles in Japan has broken 300k, and only a handful have broken 200k. I estimate 80%-90% of PS3 titles (based on Japan sales) to have NOT broken even yet.

...

We all know Sony is in a difficult position regarding losing money - and that the PS3 is still being produced at a loss. The chances of Sony further cutting the PS3 price are very, very slim (instead you'll see more complex bundles, at increased prices). And the faster they cut prices, the shorter the effective lifespan of the device on the market.

In Japan, the PS3 has been around for something like 110 weeks - giving it *average* sales of around 30k/week since launch.

Next year is going to be a difficult one for Sony (and Japan in general) - its going to be tough to maintain the "current" sales, let alone boost them further. Expect sales to hover in the 10k-20k mark for much of the year, as it did in 2008.

...

The PS3 will be doing REALLY well to sell 2m - which is an *average* of 40k/week.

In '08, the PS3 only broke 40k/week a few times during the entire year (was trying to find out exact numbers, but the site is too slow...). Even the week of 20th Dec didn't break it.

The PS3 is relatively cheap is Japan - there have already been price cuts, lots of models released, heaps of big name software, bundles... and so on. And it still can't break 40k/week over XMAS - let alone *average* this, which only gives it 2m sales for the year.

At the start of '08 the PS3 had sold 1.8m in Japan - now, 12 months later - its sold 2.6m (ok, add an extra 150k for the last 2 weeks in Dec). That still brings the YEARLY sales for '08 to UNDER ONE MILLION.

...

Unless Sony can really pull something amazing out - maybe a slimline PS3, which is a LOT cheaper combined with some killer software - sales for '09 will mirror '08 (if not struggle to match them). If they manage 1.5m in Japan for '09, they are doing well - if they manage 2m, I'll be amazed.

As for what happens in 4 years time (2012) - who knows? Anyone can make arbitrary, baseless predictions - and if things don't work out next week, next month or next year - just fall back onto the "oh, next year will be better".

All I know, is that based on fact there is a greater chance that SCEE will fall over by 2012 than the PS3 selling 100m. And none of us want that to happen.

...

Without trying to be mean, too many "hardcore" Sony fans like yourself still remind me of the old Sony mentality that got them in this position to start with. Start by looking at reality - real facts, figures, trends, reports... rather than just "hoping" (or even worse - "expecting") things to just magically get better.

You know what the best thing is about Crazzy? The message never changes, he just swaps in new games every six months or so:

Crazzyman post from April 25, 2007 (http://vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=2333). About half these games have since come out, and several were canceled entirely. Needless to say, the mythical sales surge did not happen...

The thread I linked to is actually fun reading. Most of the pro-Sony posters insisted that PS3 sales would take off once the price was cut to $400 and Grand Theft Auto/Metal Gear Solid came out. Those who are clamoring for a $300 pricetag and Killzone/God of War might want to keep that in mind.

Sqrl,

1) This are ESTIMATES, till we get shipped numbers for all consoles.
2) 7-8 mln. in 140-160 mln. LTD PS3 sales - 5%.
5% - is merely.x360 barely has any 3rd party exclusives.
JAPAN FTW!

Yakuza 3
Quantum Theory
Demon`s Soul
New CyberConnect game
+Many to be announcedTHIS won`t matter, after PS3 reach 199-299$ price.
SEE PS2/GC/xbox PRICE WARS.JAPAN matters.Some people were expecting 2 mln. LTD sales for MGS4? Or something like that.
There are also MANY SOLID games like GoW3, Uncharted, Infamous, Heavy Rain, Ico 3 to be relased in 2009. With WHAT?
All i see MH3 and DQX, what i missed???Crisis worked BAD for PS3 with it`s 400$ price. That price will be reduced in 2009.Sony released 400$ costing PS3 after 1 years since lauch, when PS3 cost 600$.
HOW much Sony is making on PSN/Home? How MUCH Sony gets from BLU-RAY?So far, PS3 has MORE(atleast equally) potentially good announced exclusive games for 2009, then Wii+x360 combined.LBP, R2, M:PR every game already sold over 1 mln., and will have GOOD legs(just like Uncharted), because these games are GREAT.

CrazzyMan said: Really, give me one colourfull Super mario Galaxy over three gray-brownish KZ2's and Res2's any day. LittleBigPlanet and Valkyria Chronicles over Super Mario Galaxy any day.

 

Personal tastes notwithstanding, I think it's pretty clear what the General Public prefers...

Unless you're positive that the 7.73 million proud Super Mario Galaxy owners are just unenlightened, meaningless nobodies that is.