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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS3 will sell 100 mln. by the end of 2012

HappySqurriel said:
MikeB said:
Linkzmax said:
Great thread! I think it's time for a PS3 2009 VS PS2 2002 thread as well.

IMO in terms of console specs, the PS3 is ahead of its time. From a console tech perspective the PS3 would have been more suited to release by christmas 2009, compared to historical specs (but with bigger harddrive and slimline components).

I view the tech as such, so from that perspective the PS3 will have more than a 2 years headstart to allow developers to adapt and mature their game engines, increase install base and mature the services.

IMO the PS2 was a rather normal specced console in 2000.

So if the PS3 should have been released in 2009 because it was so advanced, what does that tell you about the XBox 360 that was released a year before the PS3 and has similar performance to it?

The engineering behind the PS3 is (sort of) like a chef who chooses to put as many of the most exotic spices into a dish as possible regardless of how these spices taste together ... The PS3 is not "Ahead of its time" as much as it was unnecessarily complicated and poorly thought out.

 

Regarding CPU peformance and general design the 360 is not similar in terms of actual potential performance. And there are other factors with regard to being more advanced, like having a high capacity Blu-Ray drive. PCs came with DVD drives well before the PS2 launched, in this sense the PS3 is actually ahead of standard PC technology.

It's a bit like an Atari ST vs Amiga thing, where early Atari ST to Amiga ports were better on the less advanced but simpler Atari ST. But the Amiga far outshined the Atari ST regarding exclusive games a couple of years further along.

Don't get me wrong the 360 was well specced for a 2005 console, it would have been a solid specced console if it didn't have such a failure prone design (and should have had a default harddrive, like the original XBox). Gears of War 2 looks good, even a launch title like Kameo still looks good. I would rather have had Microsoft waited till 2006 to iron out all the fundamental design "mistakes".



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I want to know too, Crazzy, if the PS3 will sell 100mil. in the next 4 years, how much the Wii will sell in this same time frame??



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theRepublic said:
321tttrini4everz said:
LOL.....alot of ppl here on this site are full of hate towards SONY

i totally agree with crazzyman.....by the end of 2012 the PS3 will be around 100million

i believe SONY would push the PS3 for 10+ years and refresh the hardware model more than 2 times to keep it on par with the rival consoles (xbox720 & wii-too)

So you think that the PS3 is going to start to sell 20 million units a year for the next 4 years?  Keep in mind that the only console to average that much in a year is the Wii.

hey it should be around there,if not 20million per year it should be 16million(which isnt bad) at least

 

hey but to be honest, i really think the PS3 wouldnt take off in 2009...

i believe 2010 is the year the PS3 should perform very well



To sum up this thread:

CrazzyMan predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 20 million units for the next 4 years.

For comparison: The Wii is currently selling at roughly 20 million units a year.

321tttrini4everz predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 16 to 20 million units for the next 4 years.

Alby_da_Wolf predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 16 million units for the next 5 years.

MikeB predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 15 million units for the next 8 years.

For comparison: The PS2 sold at about 16 million units a year during its generation.



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MikeB said:

@ Darc Requiem

You just predicited a 140 million unit life time sales for PS3. That is not a sane prediction.


Can be less and IMO can also be well more, depending on unknown factors neither you nor I have any real influence on. IMO nothing to become upset about, my prediction (actually "expectation" would be the better word here) stands.

Some reasons (amongst many others):
- Little room to drop the 360 entry pricing below 119 Euro or 199 Dollar. I think the PS3 will drop more regarding entry pricing the upcoming years.
- The most anticipated PS3 games are still under development, all well sold XBox games already saw 360 sequels and there's nothing really major or spectacular on the radar.
- The PS3 is very well specced for a long term future, the 360 will not see major technical gains from here on, unless Microsoft decides to screw arcade customers and allow for future games to require a harddrive.

Agree with them or not, it doesn't matter enough to get upset.

 

Unfortunately reasons are superseded by known factors. Casual consumers by the most hardware. These consumers are also the least likely to purchase more than one console. These are the consumers that propelled the PS1 and PS2 to sales of over 100 million consoles each. Nintendo has been garnering these consumers, in addition to new consumers, since the Wii launched. With the introduction of the $199 Arcade unit MS has made its bid for those consumer dollars. Sony is still well out of their price range and by the time they do reach such a price point Nintendo and MS will have have already tapped that market.

If even these supposed technological gains exist, they will come too late to make a difference. Perception is reality. The perception is that the PS3 isn't more power than the 360. To give you an idea of how strong perception can be, there are still people that believe that the PS2 is more powerful than the Gamecube over seven years after the consoles release. Not only that, you are ignoring one of the most well known quirks of the home console market. The most technology isn't a favorable factor in home console sales. In fact, the more advanced console hasn't never been market leader.

Hardware power means nothing if the majority of developers cannot access it. AM2 could do things on the Saturn that weren't possible on the PS1, but they were the only ones. No other developer thought the time needed to perform such feats was worth it when the could so easily access the power of the PS1 chipset.  Why spend all that time developing for a 9 processor nightmare when you could save money by developing for the 3 processor PS1? They didn't care that Shenmue (Saturn) and Virtua Fighter 3 (Saturn) blew away anything they could done on Playstation 1.

When has a significant portion of third party developers supported a last place console beyond the introduction of next gen hardware? If the PS3 is to make to ten years, it will have be almost solely on the backs of Sony internal development studios. Third parties just don't continue to develop trailing hardware platforms without some sort of extenuating circumstance. The reason third party support was so much heavier on X-box and than Gamecube was because MS was willing to provide financial incentive. Sony isn't in a position to do so with the PS3.



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MikeB said:
HappySqurriel said:
MikeB said:
Linkzmax said:
Great thread! I think it's time for a PS3 2009 VS PS2 2002 thread as well.

IMO in terms of console specs, the PS3 is ahead of its time. From a console tech perspective the PS3 would have been more suited to release by christmas 2009, compared to historical specs (but with bigger harddrive and slimline components).

I view the tech as such, so from that perspective the PS3 will have more than a 2 years headstart to allow developers to adapt and mature their game engines, increase install base and mature the services.

IMO the PS2 was a rather normal specced console in 2000.

So if the PS3 should have been released in 2009 because it was so advanced, what does that tell you about the XBox 360 that was released a year before the PS3 and has similar performance to it?

The engineering behind the PS3 is (sort of) like a chef who chooses to put as many of the most exotic spices into a dish as possible regardless of how these spices taste together ... The PS3 is not "Ahead of its time" as much as it was unnecessarily complicated and poorly thought out.

 

Regarding CPU peformance and general design the 360 is not similar in terms of actual potential performance. And there are other factors with regard to being more advanced, like having a high capacity Blu-Ray drive. PCs came with DVD drives well before the PS2 launched, in this sense the PS3 is actually ahead of standard PC technology.

It's a bit like an Atari ST vs Amiga thing, where early Atari ST to Amiga ports were better on the less advanced but simpler Atari ST. But the Amiga far outshined the Atari ST regarding exclusive games a couple of years further along.

Don't get me wrong the 360 was well specced for a 2005 console, it would have been a solid specced console if it didn't have such a failure prone design (and should have had a default harddrive, like the original XBox). Gears of War 2 looks good, even a launch title like Kameo still looks good. I would rather have had Microsoft waited till 2006 to iron out all the fundamental design "mistakes".

 

Well, the Blu-Ray drive is only ahead of PC techology if Blu-Ray becomes a standard addition to most PCs ...

There are two technologies which have a much stronger foothold and may prevent this from happening, external hard-drives and flash memory. We really aren't that far off from having external disc drives that offer 100 times the storage of a Blu-Ray disc which are sold for $100, and USB keys which offer similar storage to a Blu-Ray disc for $10.

Now, the reason why I would say the Cell is over complicated is that Sony could have choosen a less expensive processor that had lower power requirements that achieved the same real world performance as the Cell ... As nice as theoritical performance is, it is entirely meaningless unless it translates to real world performance (which doesn't happen with the cell).



mikeb:

Don't get me wrong the 360 was well specced for a 2005 console, it would have been a solid specced console if it didn't have such a failure prone design (and should have had a default harddrive, like the original XBox). Gears of War 2 looks good, even a launch title like Kameo still looks good. I would rather have had Microsoft waited till 2006 to iron out all the fundamental design "mistakes".



And if they had taken your advice they wouldnt be in anywhere near as good a position as they are now..... getting it out early was absolutely critical.



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theRepublic said:

To sum up this thread:

CrazzyMan predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 20 million units for the next 4 years.

For comparison: The Wii is currently selling at roughly 20 million units a year.

321tttrini4everz predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 16 to 20 million units for the next 4 years.

Alby_da_Wolf predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 16 million units for the next 5 years.

MikeB predicts that the PS3 will average sales of 15 million units for the next 8 years.

For comparison: The PS2 sold at about 16 million units a year during its generation.

---> Only if it does the right moves each time (IIRC I wrote it), otherwise, doing mainly good moves, but also some mistakes or moves not so goog  Edit: good (a lapsus, I was perhaps inconsciously thinking about a company doing very few mistakes ), like is normal and human, I'd add at least one more Xmas.

 



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What I don't get is how 'ahead of it's time' is the Playstation 3 vs. the Xbox 360 when the PS3 came out a year later and cost $200 more for the base price....What could the 360 of had with such a high price tag?



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@ Darc Requiem

The most technology isn't a favorable factor in home console sales. In fact, the more advanced console hasn't never been market leader.


I guess you are referring to 3D0 and the Neo Geo, in some regards they were ahead of their time and priced highly for a console.

I agree early success for a console can be crucial, but the PS3 is already pretty successful in terms of install base compared to those consoles. Actually if Sony would have sold much more they could have lost billions of extra dollars on hardware investments.

The main difference is IMO having Sony as a crucial factor. They have the worldwide entertainment and industry muscle and expertise to weather through the ordeals of releasing an ahead of its time innovative hardware architecture.

After the period of adaptation, it will get easier like was the case with regard to the Amiga. Adapted game engines are already adapted, to stay on par with or go ahead of the Atari ST's capabilities requires not much additional R&D from then on. Additional R&D only adds more options to compete with exclusive Amiga games.



Naughty Dog: "At Naughty Dog, we're pretty sure we should be able to see leaps between games on the PS3 that are even bigger than they were on the PS2."

PS3 vs 360 sales