I think this far into the console race the market share picture has been more or less painted.  The Wii is the clear winner with the PS3 and the XBOX360 battling it out for 2nd place.  Obviously there is a lot that can change from now until the next gen, but I don't see any major shifts happening.  The question is what have the respective companies learned from this round and how to you expect them respond in the next?

PS4: I think Sony thought with the immense strength of the playstation brand coupled with arguably the most powerful hardware they could retain if not increase upon the PS2 fanbase.  I also think they are seriously factoring in Blu-ray and controlling the format into the equation, which is worth a lot of money.  So I think whilst we generally see the PS3 as a big disappointment in moving from the biggest market share by far to heading for a battle for 2nd, owning the next generation DVD format if successful could turn out in the end to be a greatly profitable move.  Regardless of this though I think it can't be doubted that Sony made a number of mistakes including overestimating the hardcore market and its influence and underestimating the casuals.

I expect the PS4 to again play the powerful console card.  However, I expect Sony to largely diversify.  I think they will still have the hardcore focus, but similar to Nintendo will expand out most likely with assorted controllers that can be bought.  This way the hardcore gamers don't have to buy the SonyMote and vice versa.  I expect the PS4's online capabilities to be vastly better to rival xbox live.  Generally I expect Sony to stay the course and cater to the hardcore but absorb nintendo's casual gamer focus and xbox's online focus.

XBOX3:  I think generally Microsoft's plan worked well.  They, like almost everyone else, were beaten but the unexpected change in the market to accommodate such a unique device as the Wii.  Otherwise though they have successfully increased the quality of their product and their market share nicely.  I expect them to stay the course for the XBOX3 but like Sony attempt to expand into the casual gamer market.  I think they will also do they alternate controller thing.

Wii2:  I expect Nintendo to go crazy.  Before this generation they were trying a new concept in uncertain conditions.  Now that the concept has been validated I expect them to go all out with the Wii2.  Expect all kinds of family and non-traditional games.  I think they will try and continue to expand the market and make Nintendo synonymous with games with all these new first time gamers they are getting.  They won't abandon their marios and so forth, in fact I expect them to expand upon them with newer franchises.  Also now that they are looking in a very good position I think they will invest in a awesome and huge online network with Wii2.  I expect the online nature to be highly integrated into the console simply because this is awesome, nintendo is acting very smart these days and they pretty much have the guaranteed market share for the Wii2 to make such an investment worth while.

honestly i think there wont change much. the xbox and ps will battle for the graphics again. and since hd gaming starts to work now it has no use for them to bring out 5000p or what ever games since we cant play it anyway in full glory. so i think there wont be a new one for 8 years unless the tv market starts booming into higher high def gaming. aswell i think it would be nice if all the 3 game companies are creating software and hardware working with the new wow-v thing wich can create 3d tv without the 3d glasses. then shooters would be kick ass. philips has one already but they only cost 15000 euro, wich is not somehting i have on my bank account, and i guess most gamers havent.

but maybe in 8 years they are like 1500 then it would be cool if the game industry gets into it aswell.

i predict box will release its console again as 1st since it helped them alot.
but i think ps and nintendo release quick afer it instead of a year maybe 3 months.

also i predict nintendo and most likely the others uses the wiimote based of thing.

nintendo goes to 1080i-1080p graphics, still not the power the others have but some improvement.

depending on the blue ray hdddvd battle i think ps have a blueray and xbox also or maybe not. would be nice if they have both compatible drives.

since i don't expect to see anything until ~2011 i'm not worried about it.

however the trends are a known quantity now and what I see is more AFFORDABLE game consoles sold for a profit, if it is the one thing that nintendo has shown this go round with the DS and now the Wii, people want fun games, however they want it at a price that is affordable- ie under 299.


i see next generation to be THE hugest "battle" for marketshare.

all 3 will have comparable graphics, storage, and capabilities.

all three will have comparable price.

then it'll come down to...The Games.

lol... 90 to 100 million units by 2011/2012...

I can't see it going to 90 million too IMO.

Anyway, it should be called the Super Wii. There is a pattern! (not really though >_>)

NES, SNES, N64, Nintendo GameCube......then it repeats:

Wii, Super Wii, N1024 >.>, Nintendo Rectangular Prism >.>.......

???

Chubear: You state that thermal must be too young to remember videogame history, but I don't really see how your analysis is based in console history at all.

At what point in history did a console ever sell as well as the Wii only to completely collapse two or three years later? This isn't anything like the Dreamcast, Gamecube or N64. 10 Months later the Wii is still blazing, with the major games not even out yet. And Nintendo's console history does nothing to suggest a "Wii lite"

Your Xbox statements start out right. In that the 360's hardware malfunction rate is a trainwreck, and it's seriously hurt the brand and it's sales numbers. But why would Microsoft leave hardware for Software when Hardware is the whole point of the venture? Also, how would making false announcements about an Xbox 3 be a good thing? Has any gaming company ever lied about making new consoles when they're on their last one? I don't think there was ever announcements of an Atari Jaguar 2, Neo Geo 2, Sega Dreamcast 2 or the like.

Back to Wii - How has Nintendo's strategy just been to stay alive with low processing power? The Wii is the first Nintendo console ever to not compete on a graphics level. And It's easy to understand why they did it this time around. But they'll enter the next gen with a strong brandname and a lot of cash. Everything would point to another system that can compete in the graphics arena just like the NES, SNES, N64 and Gamecube.

And Finally, the PS3. I can think of a lot of reasons that the PS3 won't hit the 100 Million range. But the biggest reason is the competition. The 360 will finish this gen in considerably better shape than the original Xbox, and the Wii is selling at a phenomonally higher rate than the Cube or N64. That's got to eat Somebodies market share!

heh. I was going to post a reply to Chubear but postman stof took the words right out of my mouth.

so I will just mark your words down and unfortunately you will be long gone by 2012 when it seems obvious that the PS3 isn't going to meet your expectations and the Wii will exceed them. However, I would implore you to at least stay until the end of next year when the Wii blows past your upper limit of 40 Million, and the PS3 is still struggling below half of that.

Well I think Nintendo might make the three, simply because they will be the first console to regain the lead after losing it. They have been around five generations now and they know exactly what makes a console successful. I'm by no means saying it's a sure thing (hell predicting this generation is hard enough let alone 2 from now) but I think nin has the best chance

Simply look to the handheld. Sony leveraged the most successful gaming brand in history and still couldn't dethrone Nintendo from taking three in a row.