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Forums - Sales Discussion - Really bad predictions for console sales

Link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/7797504.stm

 

This article was published today. Screen Digest predicts the Wii to sell 42 million by the end of the year, the Xbox 360 to sell 24 million by the end of the year, and the PS3 to sell 19 million by the end of the year. These predictions are so bad that I thought they may have been made a year ago. Nope. The analyst talks about how 2008 has been, so his predictions were made recently and really are that bad.



Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.

Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):

  • DS: 94 million (96.0)
  • Wii: 46 million (44.4)
  • PSP: 45 million (43.6)
  • X360: 27 million (27.3)
  • PS3: 24 million (19.4)
  • PS2: 124 million (123.7)
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Wow.




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PS3 predictions close to the mark. PS3 will finish around 19.5 million. XBox 360 and Wii predictions are well off but within that 10% error rate that is acceptable.



i wished the front page looked like that but there not that far off who nose maybe vgchartz #'s will get adjusted down



                                                             

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How is that "really bad?"



 

 

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It depends when the predictions were made.

If they were made last week then they're terrible.

Made a month or two ago and they're fine



scottie said:
It depends when the predictions were made.

If they were made last week then they're terrible.

Made a month or two ago and they're fine

 

they were made this month, i remember coming across that article thinking its amazing, they dont even check past sales before they right these things, 



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minecraft name: hansrotec

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The xbox hate is strong with this article.



"...You can't kill ideas with a sword, and you can't sink belief structures with a broadside. You defeat them by making them change..."

- From By Schism Rent Asunder

MontanaHatchet said:
How is that "really bad?"

They were made this month. Obviously the PS3 prediction isn't "really bad." I was referring to the Wii and Xbox 360 predictions.

Xbox 360 had already sold 24 million by the beginning of the month. So the prediction is 100% off.

Wii had sold over 39 million and was selling over 1 million a week and the weekly sales were increasing. This implies at least 45 million by the end of the year. So there is at least a 50% error in the prediction.

The PS3 prediction is within the acceptable range, but we can see now that it is low.

Of course, all three predictions would have been acceptable if they were made a few months ago. But they weren't.



Systems owned: Nintendo 64, GameCube, Xbox 360, Atari 7800, Genesis, PlayStation, Dreamcast, Game Boy Advance, Nintendo DS.

Year-end predictions (April 6, 2008):

  • DS: 94 million (96.0)
  • Wii: 46 million (44.4)
  • PSP: 45 million (43.6)
  • X360: 27 million (27.3)
  • PS3: 24 million (19.4)
  • PS2: 124 million (123.7)

Really bad were the predictions made by major analytical and financial firms prior to 2008.


This is well within the accepted Margin Of Error.



The rEVOLution is not being televised