I predicted M&S (Wii + DS) would outsell GTA IV (Ps3 + X360) a few months ago (around GTA IV launch?), but it doesn't look like that will happen.
It won't be a lot behind, but it probably won't make it.
M&S Wii total = 9920K
GTA IV total: 11557K
Gap: 1637K
M&S Wii + DS last week = 232K
GTA IV (Ps3 + X360) last week: 141K
Gap: 91K
But of course, we're in the holidays - the gap usually isn't that big.
Estimated gap by the end of the year: 1400K
What can we expect the difference to be after on? Well, let's take the 2 months ending start of October (no holiday boost at all).
GTA IV total: 447K
Mario & Sonic total: 789K
Difference: 342K
Hmm... That's ~ 40K weekly. If it can maintain 25K weekly next year (which would be likely), it should be within 400K by the start of Q4.
Hot diggity! It has a chance! Heck, I'd say it should do it pretty easily, as M&S could easily sell more than 25K more (I find 35K more a lot more likely, which would mean it would be dead on equal to GTA IV by the end of Q3.
Yes, I'll say it. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii + DS) will outsell Grand Theft Auto IV (Ps3 + X360) by the end of 2009.
Wait... Could that mean it would take the throne as the best selling 3rd party game this gen (multiplats included).
It does! Only real contestant is GH3 which is at 9.3M, and CoD 4 at 10.5M, but M&S will beat those.
CoD: WaW has a slight chance, but it is unlikely.