I think 2009 might be PS3's last year. That would mean PS3 was on the market from

2006-2009

2006 was an incomplete launch and didn't include Europe. 2007 was a pretty good year for PS3 and did pretty well during the holiday, but everyone was saying "wait for 2008, it will be the year of the PS3!" This year, 2008, is PS3's first full holiday season. Holiday sales are flat or stagnent YoY and even worse, Sony is itself is plummeting and cannot afford a price cut. The press has also turned against PS3:

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/siliconalley/personal-tech/2008_12_sonys_ps3_a_sinking_ship_sales_plummet_sne.html

Sega Saturn was on the market from

1994-1998

In 1995, Sega Saturn launched in America and thus 1995 was its first full Holdiay season, very similar to PS3 in 2007. In 1996, Sega Saturn sales were drastically up YoY, and the press was still supportive of Sega:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_1997_Jan_13/ai_19014339

Essentailly, 1996 is the same as 2008. Nintedo 64 launched, but Nintendo was very late to the party and that should have only hurt the Saturn anyway. In terms of press and sales growth, Saturn did better than PS3 for their respective full 2nd holiday.

This bodes very poorly for PS3. Sales are falt of stagnating. PS3 does not have the strong foothold in Japan that Saturn had, (relatie to market share) and PS3's stronghold (EU) has been wrest from it by Wii and now Xbox 360 has been accpeted and is fast stealing PS3 market share. PS3 will get 2nd in Japan, but the HD market is quite small (Wii+ portables get everything it seems) and 360 is fighting PS3 tooth and nail in Japan as well. NA is almost a lost cause for PS3 at this pint as well; 360 is the "gamers" console in Na, and Wii is for everyone. Some people will still buy Ps3's and killzone 2 should cause a spike, but they will come in last in NA as well.

This leaves PS3 with 3rd in NA, 2nd in Japan, and 3rd/remote chance of 2nd in EU. Combined with a poor economy where people will continue to get squeezed for cash and Sony is bleeding, I think there will be no choice but to discontinue the PS3. Sony will liekly finsih all their porjects and have a good showing in 2009, and then wihtin 3 months of 2010 we will start to see the channel of PS3's go dry as Sony announces they are disoncinutting the PS3.

If this happens, PS2 and PSP will lose creidiblity and might sink as well. At that point I don't think it will matter though. PS2 is in tiwlight at this point, and PSP is struggling every where but in Japan. I don't think they will disonciunte PSP as well, but it will take a big hit and they are likely to phase it out.

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i agree with the original post...

It will be longer on the market than that, but I do agree that 2007-2008 is the peak of the PS3.

The console itself will still be sold in 2010 but it will probably be only half alive by then.

this does it, we have beaten 2007, the ps3 is going to be discontinued in 2009= This amazing thread.

So when the console gets cheaper, and the games begin fully utilising the machines capabilities, it will sell LESS?

Right

You know, people were saying the same about 360. Then you know what happened? It got a price cut and came right back.

Why you people think the PS3 can't rebound like the 360 is beyond me.

Because they hate the ps3, they had a PS2, they loved it, but now HATE the ps3 for watever reason.

I don't necessarily agree with the OP, but Leo-j is awfully arrogant to criticize since he has predicted doom for the Wii so many times.

You beat me to it.

@OP: Sony's hurting but not nearly bad enough to discontinue the PS3, which would be basically throwing the entire Playstation brand under the bus.