We know that December's totals are usually around 2x November's.  Taking into consideration that December will be a 5 week period this year, can the Wii truly reach 4 million units sold?

My prediction: I doubt it.  The current record in December is 2.7 million sold in 2002 (PS2).  The Wii will certainly beat that record.  But I'm not too sure Nintendo has that much supply shipped into the market place, even with retailers like Walmart rumored to be releasing huge stockpiles soon.  The biggest reason why I can't see the Wii selling so much in December is because, honestly, it's just so hard for me to fathom.  4 million units!?  That is just INSANE.

So, how about some predicitions people...  How many units will the Wii sell in December of 2008 in the U.S.?

My estimate:  3 - 3.3 million (+50% of Novembers numbers)

have you noticed the front page? the wii is currently selling over 1M a week. historically there is a huge sales spike the last weekend before xmas. 4 million isn't a possibility, it is the lower limit.

edit: wait...did you mean us only?  i take back my previous statement.

I think it will. The little guy's selling like Tea and Cookies.

Worldwide they'll sell 7-8 million during December (according to Nintendo's shipment forecasts), perhaps even slightly more depending on how big that recent production boost was.

Can around half come from USA? I'd say it's possible but not certain.

EDIT- Actually I was thinking of the whole Americas region, not USA. For USA alone it's unlikely unless that unknown production boost was big.

Reggie keeps saying "we have 50% more supply for Oct-Dec 2008". October was up 53% over October 2007...but November is up over 100% in sell through (less than 1m vs over 2m) so clearly some retailers were hoarding as Nintendo isn't going to allow more Wiis to be sold in November than December.

Nintendo shipped 3.39m Wiis in the Americas from Oct-Dec 2007. If you multiply 3.39m by 1.5 you get 5.1m roughly.

So...800k USA October. 2.04m USA November. Another 420,000 for Canada, Mexico and the the smaller markets in Latin America roughly. Add it all up...you get 3.25m so far. That means there will be at least 1.85m Wiis sold in December (since demand isn't about to let up) plus whatever is still on shelves from Black Friday/November/earlier and whatever allocation retail has been hoarding. December is a five week month...so 4m does look unlikely for the USA at the moment.

My suspicion is they have closer to 6m Wiis for the Americas in this quarter (Iwata did say they raised production slightly in November and then again in December) in which case they should have 2.8m-3.5m consoles for the USA in December if the retailers saved some of their horde.

4 million Wiis to be sold in USA alone during December 2008.

I think the December = 2X November is for worldwide sale. The US got Black Friday which probably make November comparativly bigger there than in the rest of the world, thus the 2X thing may not apply.

Anyway, I agree that there is no way the Wii will move 4 millions unit in the US during December, if because of supply constraint if anything else.

3.5 max

3.2 millions is my estimate. It'll beat the Ps2 record, but there is not enough supply to keep the november x 2 prediction.

Some of you guys can be so quick to be rude before reading the entire OP sometimes.

4 million does seem a bit overkill. Over 3, yes. 3.5 maybe. But 4 million is overkill.