Hello. My name is John Lucas. Yaaaaaay! (been away on family business)
You want my head, kber81? I didn't say let them eat cake. Please don't Marie Antoinette me. I'm scared of guillotines.
Ya see, there's something people have to understand about me. I don't like to be wishy-washy. I don't change my stance with the way the wind blows. I can take criticism and welcome it. I EXPECT it. And that reason is because I know that when I make my calls they will be long before the time and will go against conventional wisdom.
But no matter how much the slings and arrows go, I will not change. If your words mean nothing, then why say them? If you make a prediction and change it every few weeks it's meaningless. You have to stand by your words because it is a reflection of your character. Be prepared to be wrong and consider all possibilities before making a call to reduce your chances of being wrong. But once all that is done and all sides are checked, make a stand...and STAND.
That's how I do business.
I admitted my error in the added stipulation I added in along the way about Wii beating XBox 360 in the Americas within July. I admitted this error to RolStoppable in PM months ago saying that it was the only one I made off the seat of my pants, in the heat of the moment. I really didn't think it through and just blurted it for the record.
And it was wrong and I admitted as much.
BUT my original prediction was ALWAYS that Wii passes XBox 360 in Americas before end of summer.
Will that one prove to be wrong? We'll see. But I won't change because it is popular to do so. I LOVE to take the unpopular stance.
But I DID think it through before blurting it out like I do for most of my predictions.
I know VGChartz isn't perfect also though they do a damn fine job in my opinion. I believe Wii has already passed 360 worldwide based on Nintendo's report from 1st Qtr. results (banned topic ). While in Europe Nintendo may have some markets where it struggles it still sells strongly. This is the region that is hardest to account for on VGCharts and other sales tracker companies historically. I believe that market could be responsible for the lapse in figures but it's no big deal.
Thank you to the posters who congratulated my stance and findings. Yes I made predictions long ago in 2005 before the 7th gen started about how the market would end up. One oversight was about company self-sabotage so I couldn't figure in Sony being so weak this gen. I knew Wii would win but I thought it would struggle against the momentum of the PlayStations at first. I learn as I go. I learn new lessons every gen which is why I make strong predictions. A lot of this I've seen before. Now I know to account for company self-sabotage in my future predictions. A new lesson learned.
My balls to the wall approach is based on like my profile says nearly 30 years of watching the videogame industry develop as a gameplayer. You can learn from all parts of the chain from producer to user. I also formulate my approach based on knowledge of economic background and basic business principles thinking of customer first. I also use some amateur sociology to understand the mindsets of differing groups. I have some skill at it because I've recounted experiences of others in forums based on the knowledge I picked up in my research. It's really just basic empathy and the whole mile in moccassins routine.
All of this goes into my predictions and I make them firmly while also backing my claims up which is most important. To be able to see all sides of the story and then put it all together, that's why I try to do.
Superchunk I commend YOU for sticking to YOUR guns. This week's results are not finished and VGChartz's version of the tale will be told soon.
NOTHING is more sure to me than the end-year prediction. I made this in my very first posts as well and that will make 9 months foresight when those come true. Nintendo is preparing to unleash major product soon. From September to December will be a flood on the markets as the factories finally come into line. Nintendo will NOT miss this opportunity to make bank. Christmas season 2007 is crucial and it will be a bigger year for Wii than 2006 was.
End year predictions:
Wii - AT LEAST 20 million worldwide. Best case: 24 million. Will not budge an ounce on this.
XBox 360 - Within 13 million range high or low. Will not quite break the 14 million barrier.
PS3 - Being VERY generous a 'skosh' over 7 million at VERY BEST case scenario.
DS - 60 million.
PSP - I think I said 25 million. gotta check my records.
We'll see if I'm a 'head' above the rest.
John Lucas "Official VGChartz Idiot"