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Crow? Nah... I want head of John Lucas :-)

Forums - General Discussion - Crow? Nah... I want head of John Lucas :-)


It has already passed the 360...like I said so long ago.

VGChartz will display the results of the July surpassing next week at August 8th.

Mario Strikers Charged in North America will be the title which pushes the extra firepower that make the charts match.

Next bet is when will it pass 360 in North America?

I'll admit that I pushed the superfluous stipulation of July in NA too hard so I admit that error. I threw that in there without any real thought as an added stipulation to my original prediction on Wii Vs. 360 in North America.

Stripping away the added stipulation I always said Wii passes 360 in the summer.

I count official summer as summer which ends September 22. Fall/Autumn begins Sept. 23.

Madden will give 360 tremendous boosts as will Halo 3 but Wii also has a formidable lineup as production buildup starts showing its strength as they prepare for the Holidays.

There's a little under 2 months for calls to be made on this and after that prediction of mine comes true also prepare for the big one.

Year-end sales.

AT LEAST 20 Million Worldwide. Best case scenario: 24 Million Worldwide. For Wii.

For XBox 360- within 13 million range high or low. They will not be able to quite break 14 million before year's end.

For PS3- being VERY generous, just over 7 million at BEST case scenario.

John Lucas

 

This is his prediction. I must say that's pretty good. I'm not sure what the problem is. The only thing wrong is that he over estimated on the Wii, and maybe the PS3 (I see it at 6 million or less, but that's just me).



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Poor old John, leave him alone, he's been offline for awhile now, I only here from him via Wiiconnect24 these days.



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John is a prime target because he had a habbit of telling people what they didn't want to hear and being correct. People are going to want to take this out on him in anyway they can so the second he slips up on any prediction he's going to be in the cross hairs. All part of the game.



“The Hardcore of the Peach is its pits. Try to get the whole fruit!”

- John Lucas

 

“Every industry is filled with the grave stones of companies who kept doing the same thing.”

- Reggie Fils-Aime

 

“You don’t play Graphics, you look at them.”

- Unknown

 

“Casual Gaming = Anything that’s not an FPS”

- Sony Fandom

Sporticus said:
John is a prime target because he had a habbit of telling people what they didn't want to hear and being correct.

Hmm, I think he had a habbit of telling N-fanboys what they want to hear and being incorrect. G... just leave this thread. You've already posted here. Everybody knows your opinion. Thanks for your contribution...



kber81 said:
Sporticus said:
John is a prime target because he had a habbit of telling people what they didn't want to hear and being correct.

Hmm, I think he had a habbit of telling N-fanboys what they want to hear and being incorrect. G... just leave this thread. You've already posted here. Everybody knows your opinion. Thanks for your contribution...


I see no reason to turn this into a matter of Nintendo or Sony fan bashing. It seems pretty clear from the hostility in your response and use the word "fanboy" as a justifier that I was right on the mark to begin with. Even voicing my own opinion contrary to your own is something you can't stand. Guess when it comes down to the nit and gritty you just can't stand people who don't agree with you.

Also, I didn't know there was a one post minimum per thread.



“The Hardcore of the Peach is its pits. Try to get the whole fruit!”

- John Lucas

 

“Every industry is filled with the grave stones of companies who kept doing the same thing.”

- Reggie Fils-Aime

 

“You don’t play Graphics, you look at them.”

- Unknown

 

“Casual Gaming = Anything that’s not an FPS”

- Sony Fandom

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kber81 said:
Sqrl said:
Sporticus/kber81, one of you needs to change avatars cause in the words of Dave Chappel...


I'm the real one so I will stay with my avatar. Gball just borrowed it for a while. Probably till another ban. It won't take long. Believe me.


Changing one's avatar due to another's similarity is infuriating, let me tell ya

<---recent victim

Johnny boy will be close in his prediction indeed, but what's the harm in eating a little crow when you're wrong, even if by a little?



Hello. My name is John Lucas. Yaaaaaay! (been away on family business) 

You want my head, kber81? I didn't say let them eat cake. Please don't Marie Antoinette me. I'm scared of guillotines.

Ya see, there's something people have to understand about me. I don't like to be wishy-washy. I don't change my stance with the way the wind blows. I can take criticism and welcome it. I EXPECT it. And that reason is because I know that when I make my calls they will be long before the time and will go against conventional wisdom.

But no matter how much the slings and arrows go, I will not change. If your words mean nothing, then why say them? If you make a prediction and change it every few weeks it's meaningless. You have to stand by your words because it is a reflection of your character. Be prepared to be wrong and consider all possibilities before making a call to reduce your chances of being wrong. But once all that is done and all sides are checked, make a stand...and STAND.

That's how I do business.

I admitted my error in the added stipulation I added in along the way about Wii beating XBox 360 in the Americas within July. I admitted this error to RolStoppable in PM months ago saying that it was the only one I made off the seat of my pants, in the heat of the moment. I really didn't think it through and just blurted it for the record.

And it was wrong and I admitted as much.

BUT my original prediction was ALWAYS that Wii passes XBox 360 in Americas before end of summer.

Will that one prove to be wrong? We'll see. But I won't change because it is popular to do so. I LOVE to take the unpopular stance.

But I DID think it through before blurting it out like I do for most of my predictions.

I know VGChartz isn't perfect also though they do a damn fine job in my opinion. I believe Wii has already passed 360 worldwide based on Nintendo's report from 1st Qtr. results (banned topic ). While in Europe Nintendo may have some markets where it struggles it still sells strongly. This is the region that is hardest to account for on VGCharts and other sales tracker companies historically. I believe that market could be responsible for the lapse in figures but it's no big deal.

Thank you to the posters who congratulated my stance and findings. Yes I made predictions long ago in 2005 before the 7th gen started about how the market would end up. One oversight was about company self-sabotage so I couldn't figure in Sony being so weak this gen. I knew Wii would win but I thought it would struggle against the momentum of the PlayStations at first. I learn as I go. I learn new lessons every gen which is why I make strong predictions. A lot of this I've seen before. Now I know to account for company self-sabotage in my future predictions. A new lesson learned.

My balls to the wall approach is based on like my profile says nearly 30 years of watching the videogame industry develop as a gameplayer. You can learn from all parts of the chain from producer to user. I also formulate my approach based on knowledge of economic background and basic business principles thinking of customer first. I also use some amateur sociology to understand the mindsets of differing groups. I have some skill at it because I've recounted experiences of others in forums based on the knowledge I picked up in my research. It's really just basic empathy and the whole mile in moccassins routine.

All of this goes into my predictions and I make them firmly while also backing my claims up which is most important. To be able to see all sides of the story and then put it all together, that's why I try to do.

Superchunk I commend YOU for sticking to YOUR guns. This week's results are not finished and VGChartz's version of the tale will be told soon.

NOTHING is more sure to me than the end-year prediction. I made this in my very first posts as well and that will make 9 months foresight when those come true. Nintendo is preparing to unleash major product soon. From September to December will be a flood on the markets as the factories finally come into line. Nintendo will NOT miss this opportunity to make bank. Christmas season 2007 is crucial and it will be a bigger year for Wii than 2006 was.

End year predictions:

Wii - AT LEAST 20 million worldwide. Best case: 24 million. Will not budge an ounce on this.

XBox 360 - Within 13 million range high or low. Will not quite break the 14 million barrier.

PS3 - Being  VERY generous a 'skosh' over 7 million at VERY BEST case scenario.

DS - 60 million.

PSP - I think I said 25 million. gotta check my records.

We'll see if I'm a 'head' above the rest.

John Lucas "Official VGChartz Idiot" 



Words from the Official VGChartz Idiot

WE ARE THE NATION...OF DOMINATION!

 

The wise one has spoken.



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ArtofAngels said:
The wise one has spoken.

that he has.  wtg johnlucas.



WiiFit will be 2008 #1 selling game in NORTH AMERICA!  
End of '08 Predictions: Wii - 48m X360 - 25m  PS3 - 19m
Wii monthly NA sales will top 400k every month in '08. *Jan sales ruined it. Grrrr!*
WiiFit will top 1m in sales in its first month of release in North America.
MGS4 will NOT be released in '08. *Darn it!* FF13 will NOT be released in '08.
Rockband Wii will top 600k in first month sales in North America.
WiiFit will pass the PS3 WW sales by Xmas '09.

Psh! I have been away for a while as well. But I also must commend John's predictions. Because he was so forceful I tended to write of what he said as lunacy :P but I guess this world is a crazy place after all. But lucas..... I still think your prediction about MGS4 is still insane and I will eat crow if it does come to pass.



Games make me happy! PSN ID: Staticneuron Gamertag: Staticneuron Wii Code: Static Wii - 3055 0871 5802 1723