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Forums - Sales Discussion - The 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror

One of the best indicators for the health of any gaming platform is the level of 3rd party support for it. A sinking platform will attract less 3rd party titles, reducing the title library for the platform and accelerating its death spiral.

We would like to assess the health balance of the two platform that rely the most on third party support - the 360 and the PS3. The result should be a table that will track the exclusive 3rd party support for each of the platforms. See the rules and resoning under the list. Please don't post criticism without reading through the reasoning first.

Current list stands on: 

360 3rd Party Exclusives:

  1. Age of Conan: Hyborian Adventures
  2. Age of Pirates: Captain Blood
  3. Battlestations: Pacific
  4. Blood Bowl
  5. Brave: A Warrior’s Tale Total
  6. Champions Online
  7. Command & Conquer: Red Alert 3
  8. Crash Bandicoot: Mind Over Mutant
  9. Crusaders: Invasion of Constantinople
  10. Dance Dance Revolution Universe 3
  11. Darksiders: Wrath of War
  12. Dead Island
  13. Deer Hunter Tournament
  14. Demons of Mercy
  15. Destroy All Humans! Path of the Furon
  16. Divinity 2: Ego Draconis
  17. Dog Tag
  18. Dungeon Explorer
  19. Dungeon Hero
  20. Galactic Command - Excalibur
  21. Guilty Gear 2: Overture
  22. High School Musical 3: Senior Year Dance!
  23. Huxley
  24. Indianapolis 500 Evolution
  25. Left 4 Dead
  26. NARUTO: THE BROKEN BOND
  27. NecroVisioN
  28. Onechanbara: Bikini Samurai Squad
  29. Owlboy
  30. PDC World Championship Darts 2008
  31. Possession
  32. Puzzle Quest: Galactrix
  33. RACE Pro
  34. Raven Squad: Operation Hidden Dagger
  35. R-Type Dimensions
  36. Secret Service
  37. Shadow Harvest
  38. Star Ocean: The Last Hope
  39. Stoked
  40. The King of Fighters: Maximum Impact 2.5
  41. The last Remnant
  42. The Maw
  43. The Outsider
  44. The Precursors
  45. The Shadow of Aten
  46. The Tale of Despereaux
  47. Theseis
  48. Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Conviction
  49. Two days to Vegas
  50. Underwater Wars
  51. Urban Mysteries
  52. Velvet Assassin
  53. Venetica
  54. Warhound
  55. Winter Sports 2: The Next Challenge

 

PS3 3rd Party Exclusives

  1. Final Fantasy Versus XIII
  2. Heat
  3. Naruto: Ultimate Ninja Storm
  4. Soldner-X: Himmelssturmer
  5. Valkyria Chronicles
  6. Quantum Theory
  7. X Edge
  8. WarDevil: Enigma
  9. Tears To Tiara: Earth's Wreath
  10. Bumpy Trot 2

 The Rules

1.    We’ll evaluated only 3rd party titles. Titles developed OR published by Microsoft and Sony are not included. I.e. Halo is not counted (1st party), Gears is not Counted (2nd Party). KZ2 is not counted (2nd party).

2.    Staggered release (i.e. time exclusives) are counted as exclusive platform support as history shows that a late release of a title performs much poorly than the early release. We will count time exclusivity of 1 month and above as exclusive support for a platform. We don't care about the motivation for the exclusivity - yes, Microsoft or Sony may have paid for that. It does not matter.

3.    We’ll count only broad releases only – releases that cover at least the two large markets of Americas and Others. Japan-only releases are not counted in any form.

4.    We’ll consider a release as being exclusive to the platform if it does not show-up on the other platform within the one month time window. The exclusive title is still considered exclusive even if it also shows up on a PC, Wii or PS2.

5.    Only major titles are counted in, and the threshold is going to be a $40 retail price. Exclusive DLC is not counted, XBLA is not counted.

6.    We will look at the present and at the future. Starting from titles released in October 2008.

7.    We’ll only accept information based on official company announcements. Rumors are not accepted.

Again, the end result of the data collection should be a table that list the exclusive 3rd party support for the 360 and for the PS3. Tracking the table over time should allow us to detect quantitative trends on the 3rd party support level for each of the platforms.

Just to be clear - this is not a fanboy thread. This is not about who is doomed and it is not about price cuts and it is not about which platform is better and which is doomed. This thread about objective data collection and assessment.

So let’s start building the 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror!

Reasoning and Clarifications (based on thread comments)

 

A lot of questions on: Why not count 1st and 2nd party games? Isn't ignoring it misses a critical part of the picture? How can you determine the "winner and loser" without taking those into account?

 

So let me be crystal clear about what this thread is and what it is not about.

This thread does not attempt to evaluate the overall winner between the 360 and the PS3. It does not try to evaluate the quality of their respective lineups. It does not try to predict the success of the titles in the market.

This thread also does not claim that 1st and 2nd party titles are not critical to the success of the platform. Of course they are critical. It would be silly to suggest otherwise.

What this thread IS trying to do is to evaluate only one aspect of the competition between the 360 and the PS3: 3rd party support.

I am not claiming in this thread that 3 party support over-shadows other elements of the competition like 1st and 2nd party titles, price, HW quality, brand name and other goodies. These are all very important in the competitive landscape. But so is 3rd party support. 

A gaming platform may win with poor 3rd party support. Just look at the Wii - took the market by storm upon introduction on the sole strength of its 1st party titles.  So yes, you can win with those alone.

But 3rd party support can be a significant influencer on buying decisions and the “abundance of titles” on one of the platforms can create a perception of a “winner” (and vice versa – consistant lack of titles may cause “loser” perception).

So this thread tries to measure only this aspect. The conclusions of this thread will help us assess if one of the platform is differentiating itself from the other platform through this level of support. Will one of the platforms get week after week more titles released on it? Is one of the platform going to get the perception of “this is the console that has all the titles”?

So this is what it is about. I hope this answers some of the issues.

Why do we ignore Japan exclusivity?

With 5% share of the Wii sales (38K/784K), 7% share of the PS3 sales and 3% of the 360 sales Japan is simply too small of a market to affect anyhting globally. Do the math - Japan currently has just about 4% of the global market for for consoles (including the Wii). With such a small market share any Japan only exclusivity is not going to change anything in the overall picture.

Why not include the Wii?

For all those clamoring to add the Wii to the list - I understand the request. I have no doubt that the Wii list will be long and impressive. But the goal of the thread is not a pissing match between the platfroms. The goal of the thread is to detect if one of the lagging platfroms (lagging after the Wii that is) is in danger of losing 3rd party support and to detect the formation of a death spiral for the lagging platforms.



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

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amirnetz said:

One of the best indicators for the health of any gaming platform is the level of 3rd party support for it. A sinking platform will attract less 3rd party titles, reducing the title library for the platform and accelerating its death spiral.

We would like to assess the health balance of the two platform that rely the most on third party support - the 360 and the PS3. The result should be a table that will track the exclusive 3rd party support for each of the platforms.

The rules:

1.    We’ll evaluated only 3rd party titles. Titles developed OR published by Microsoft and Sony are not included. I.e. Halo is not counted (1st party), Gears is not Counted (2nd Party). KZ2 is not counted (2nd party).

2.    Staggered release (i.e. time exclusives) are counted as exclusive platform support as history shows that a late release of a title performs much poorly than the early release. We will count time exclusivity of 1 month and above as exclusive support for a platform. We don't care about the motivation for the exclusivity - yes, Microsoft or Sony may have paid for that. It does not matter.

3.    We’ll count only broad releases only – releases that cover at least the two large markets of Americas and Others. Japan-only releases are not counted in any form.

4.    We’ll consider a release as being exclusive to the platform if it does not show-up on the other platform within the one month time window. The exclusive title is still considered exclusive even if it also shows up on a PC, Wii or PS2.

5.    Only major titles are counted in, and the threshold is going to be a $40 retail price. Exclusive DLC is not counted, XBLA is not counted.

6.    We will look at the present and at the future. Starting from titles released in October 2008.

7.    We’ll only accept information based on official company announcements. Rumors are not accepted.

Again, the end result of the data collection should be a table that list the exclusive 3rd party support for the 360 and for the PS3. Tracking the table over time should allow us to detect quantitative trends on the 3rd party support level for each of the platforms.

Just to be clear - this is not a fanboy thread. This is not about who is doomed and it is not about price cuts and it is not about which platform is better and which is doomed. This thread about objective data collection and assessment.

So let’s start building the 3rd Party Balance Sheet of Terror!

This could be a short list as most 3rd party devs are going multi-platform.

 



So lets start:

360 3rd Party Exclusives:
Start Ocean 4
The Last Remnant
Kill All Humans
Left 4 Dead
Sonic Unleased
C&C Red Alert

PS3 3rd Party Exclsuive
Valkyria Chronicals




Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

whatever said:

This could be a short list as most 3rd party devs are going multi-platform. 

Many are, some are not. Let's not argue on the expected length of the list. It will certainly become longer over time. I would love to see you help build it.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

360 3rd Party Exclusives:
Start Ocean 4
The Last Remnant
Kill All Humans
Left 4 Dead
Sonic Unleased
C&C Red Alert

PS3 3rd Party Exclsuive
Valkyria Chronicals
FF XIII - Japan
FF XIII VS.
MGS 4



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You know that Wii has the largest list here right... I mean, the amount of exclusive 3rd party crap on the wii is rediculous.

I know you said PS3 and 360 but...Wii should count as well.



Current list stands on: 360 3rd Party Exclusives:

  1. Start Ocean 4
  2. The Last Remnant
  3. Kill All Humans
  4. Left 4 Dead
  5. Sonic Unleased
  6. C&C Red Alert

PS3 3rd Party Exclsuive:

  1. Valkyria Chronicals
  2. FF XIII VS.

 

Response to previous posts: MGS4 was released in May, FF XIII Japan - is Japan only. We do not count the Wii because the Wii really does not need 3rd party support to be successful.

 

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

You can add Splinter Cell conviction to 360. Also, sonic Unleashed will be release don ps3 in 2 weeks



Current list stands on: 360 3rd Party Exclusives:

  1. Start Ocean 4
  2. The Last Remnant
  3. Kill All Humans
  4. Left 4 Dead
  5. Sonic Unleased
  6. C&C Red Alert
  7. Splinter cell conviction.

PS3 3rd Party Exclsuive:

  1. Valkyria Chronicals
  2. FF XIII VS.

 

Response to previous posts: MGS4 was released in May, FF XIII Japan - is Japan only. We do not count the Wii because the Wii really does not need 3rd party support to be successful. Sonic unleased - I think there was a month between the 360 and PS3 release. If it is less than a month, I will remove it.

 



Prediction made on 11/1/2008:

Q4 2008: 27M xbox LTD, 20M PS3 LTD . 2009 sales: 11M xbox,  9M PS3

Why are we excluding Japan? Especially FFXIII, where it will sell 1-2 million units in week 1.