A week ago I read all sorts of reasons why Ps3 wont hit 20 million this year. One reason being Ps3 isn't tracking the same as last year... But I have just found out that last year Black Friday sales were a week earlier. Black friday was on the the 23rd last year. This year they are on the 28th.

Last year last week it sold 229k

This year last week it sold 212k.

Last year during the same week the Ps3 tracked at 246k...

This year it will be around 240k.

It is tracking pretty similar.

Black friday week the ps3 sold 360k...

So how much will it sell this year? I don't have the answer but I'm pretty confident the Ps3 can sell it's 450k a week average from here on out to reach it's 20 mil mark. (This is also assuming ioi doesn't pull a fast one again)

Also last year since it started a week earlier that means this year it will end a week later.

Last year it ended week ending Dec. 28th. This year it will end week ending the 3rd.

So with this discovery... do you guys still think 20 million is impossible still?

(And for those wondering why there is a 17k difference that one week. Dynasty Warriors 6 released in Japan that week. And that game is HUGE over there)

(THIS IS NOT X VERSUS Y THREAD NO WHERE IN MY POST DO I MENTION ANY OTHER SYSTEM. WHILE READING MY POST NO OTHER SYSTEM OR ITS PERFORMANCES SHOULD ENTER YOUR BRAIN!)

I see your logic. And I can give you no answers. Sales speculation is just that, speculation. In any event I want the PS3 to fail because I already own the 360 and Wii and will never buy another system. But I suppose the competition is good for prices.

We will know the sales numbers In the next few weeks. Until then, patience.

Bolded - Good enough for me.

But it's safe to say it will sell more than the 18 million some said it would be lucky to break

I've always been confident! The ps3 can reach the 20M before 2009! But, japan has to follow a little!

Of the big three Japan is the smallest market.  And everyone here seems to be obsessed with the handhelds.  If the PS3 is ever gonna make ground it has to be in America. This upcoming holiday season will give us more insight in to the matter.  But I still expect the Wii and Xbox360 to widen the gap in sales over PS3.

 Yes Ps3 is tracking lower in Japan around the same time BUT...

DW6 released  (November 9th)

Then Winning Eleven  (November 22nd)

Then GT5:P (December 13th)

This year it goes

Winning eleven (Nov 27th and will be the first year without Ps2 version)

Some Gundam game (December 18th)

Then WKC (December 25th)

so last year Japan didn't release anything after GT5P (Which was on the 13th) This year WKC releases on the 25th... (Basically everything started earlier last year and will end later this year)

EDIT: Another interesting discover I found... In Japan the Ps3 was at 17k the week before DW6 was released. This week (The week before PES) it is at 17k....

 This wasn't about X versus Y it's about a milestone people say wont happen at end of year. (Some people even said 18 million is generous)

These games could help.  But not much.  The problem in Japan is that Wii has a stranglehold on the market.  It is ridiculous.  It is still sold out in several stores from time to time. And the Nintendo section always dominates the gaming stores with huge displays and more floor space for their products.  Thats how it works here.  The core Japanese gamer is kids and they play Wii or DS.

As for the HD systems they are left to fight over the scraps. Neither can make much ground while the Wii is around.

Overseas though, the core gamer is a bit older, and are in that odd medium that exists between the HD systems and Nintendo. But even then the Wii has won out because they appeal to wider variety of gamer and had a cheaper product for the majority of their run.

 You live in Japan? You should go to a store and afterwards make a thread telling us how PES does this year. It releases today and for the first time not on the Ps2.... it be interesting to hear about it. I've seen someone with a quote in their sig that said it wont even do 50k week one.

Uh, you mean Winning Eleven right?  Well, I dont see the point to making a thread.  Going to a few stores wont help me to come up with some numbers.  But in time Chartz will have them for you.

I imagine not having it on PS2 will hurt the sales.  Sports games in Japan are not that popular as is.

The PS3 simply is not pushing software that well in Japan.  The biggest sellers are always DS games out here and even they seldom break 100k in a week and there are 24+ million DSs out there. Very few PS3 games could even hope to get half of 100k in a week.