I think a couple of factors will come into play.
A) Whether or not MS can improve their current image. Its pretty well known that the 360 has unacceptable reliability. If the can get the new 360 out the door and fix that image it will help them a lot.
B) Another price drop. I assume they are waiting for A) before they do B) since selling the current 360 will only amount to financial loses. If they drop the price another $50 with the release of the new 360 then even I might get 1 even though I dont care for Halo.
If the above happens:
+/- 0 (it will be even with the Wii for about a month)
If the above doesnt happen:
- 100k (sales will double to around 100-120k per week but will not catch the Wii)