3363 posts since 31/07/07
Dodece on 16 September 2007
What is interesting is the margin between the two systems. Based on last weeks sales the Xbox 360 managed around 115,000 sales world wide last week. The Wii managed around 245,000. Sorry no calculator handy so my math may be a bit rough. That means the 360 is selling around forty percent of the total Wii sales. Thats not a great statistic for the 360 however it is a far better situation then when this thread was made.
Since that time the 360 has increased its sales by roughly 35,000 units world wide. Which is almost a fifty percent increase. Mostly off of a fifty dollar price cut. While strangely the Wii has stayed consistent. Effectively the 360 has decreased the gap between the two consoles. The sales have improved while the Wii sales have remained the same. Just comparing the two relevant weeks. The last week of July and the first week of September.
Anyway with that kind of change over time I am curious if anyone has developed doubts about their marginal predictions. A price cut generated a nearly fifty percent boost in hardware sales. So perhaps the demand is not as soft as they believed. The only logic so far I have found severely flawed is the thought that all the Halophiles have bought the machine. To which I ask the question why if they are Halophiles they had no need to replace their old machine. Which is true I have ran into a few of these characters. All of which are desperately trying to scrounge up money to buy a 360. They know in two weeks the party will be over. They have had no stress to force them to adopt up until this point. This is not the Wii after all they know it will be on the shelf when they are ready.
The same logic is routinely applied to PS2 owners they will switch when the PS3 drops in price, but why is the same logic not being applied to the halo junkies. Why should they have blown their money in early adoption for a franchise. When a price drop was far more likely, and they could hold onto their money longer. The logic seems very flawed. Why does it apply for one and yet not the other?
Anyway I think the higher predictions are looking better right now, and lower predictions are looking quite unlikely as in impossible. For instance the top four predictions are beaten on a weekly basis without Halo 3 present, and Nintendo has not manifested that kind of shipping capacity. Granted one is just idiotic, but the other three seemed somewhat realistic at the time, but are no longer so.
Just some food for thought.