Paul_Warren said:
dejelek,
Yeah, I have a clue. Gears of War 3 will be the flagship title for the next MS console.
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You concentrate too much on flagship titles. If this generation proves anything it is a problem for exclussive titles.
Multi plattform games reduce the risk for developpers and they can earn even more money, as COD, GTA or Assassin's creed demonstrated. The next move will probably be even more compatibility friendly and allow the support for the old and new plattform. At least for the Xbox720 this probly will not be an unfeasable feature, while I don't have a clue how a PS-4 should emulate the old cell.
Such plattforms would probably have FULL HD capabilities and simpler, earsier to use interfaces, to simplify develoipment on the new plattforms. So you could implement the development environment to allow the compilation for the old and new plattform ahnd you could fine tune from this stage on. This would allow a pretty smooth transition anhd while you put more and more money into the support of the new plattform you could still support the old plattform.
Add some money for timed exclussive releases and you have everything you need.
You can look at it as you like, but the push to multi plattform games shifted a lot of power from the hardware production to the software developers. The hardware only a plattform but for the software producers there are three important values: 1, how much does the development cost on this plattform, how many possible customers do I have on this plattform and how much money can I ask for the game.
The big problem for the PS-3is really that you can't use the count of available consoles as the user base for game developers. I use my PS-3 in most casers for BluRay only. I don't really have so much time for games.
On the other hand are the SPUs a big problem in the development process, because they need a totally different code base and they are integrated in a manner that makes it pretty hard to use them in reactive real time applications. Furthermore the normal system RAM is always a limiting factor Especially the time to market is the week point of this plattform.
The Xbox360 is a bit easier because the three basic cores can use the same code base and load balancing is included for free. And multi cores are standard feature of todays PCs, so the co development for the PC is easier. Its biggest problems are Resource conflicts. Especially the very fast video RAM is to limited.
From a development standpoint I would say the Xbox 360 is in a better position. Even if it would be in third place most games will be mult plattform based (the HD graphics and animations can be used on both plattforms. Furthermore: to use the SPEs effectively you should use the PPU only. This is nearly exactly the same unit as it is used in each of the thrree cores on the Xbox360 (they have each an additional Altivec Unit).). Even if Microsoft would have to switch to Intel or AMD based chips this difference is manageable as Apple demonstrated with its switch to Intel based machines.
It will pürobably achieve a software compatibility for some games, while other games could be recompiled with slight changes and rereleased at cheaper prices with enhanced capabilities. It should be no problem to release such a plattform between 2010-2012, but it would not mean the end of the Xbox360.
But how would you mange a compatible PS-4? IBM and Toshiba switched their chip developments according to their needs. Game development is not on their aggenda. Everything elsse is based on multi cores, while streaming calculations are more and more exported to the GPU. This is a complete switch from the PS-3 and a complete different plattform.
With such a different transition it is pretty easy to guess which plattform would attract more developers.
While the current PS-3 pushes the BluRay market it also strangles the market for BluRay players, which can be a pretty severe problem in the long run. And every price drop will increase this problem. More and more Hardware developers leave this market, because there is nothing to gain for them.