Oyvoyvoyv said: No way. Year 2-3 is usually the time when titles have their top launches. After that, there are simply too many games to compete with, so launces become smaller. |
From what I gather, the biggest launches in the past gens have been at year 4 or longer.
PS2: GTA San Andreas. PS2 age: 4yrs
Region | Japan | America | Others | Total |
Total Sales | 0.41m | 8.73m | 8.27m | 17.41m |
Week 1 | 220,123 | 2,252,004 | 1,513,978 | 3,986,105 |
PS1: FF8? PS1 age: 4yrs + 9months
Region | Japan | America | Others | Total |
Total Sales | 3.64m | 2.34m | 1.88m | 7.86m |
Week 1 | 2,592,405 | n/a | n/a | 2,592,405 |
SNES: DQVI? SNES age: 5yrs
Region | Japan | America | Others | Total |
Total Sales | 3.19m | 0.00m | 0.00m | 3.19m |
Week 1 | 1,529,679 | n/a | n/a | 1,529,679 |
OT: Of course, I doubt there will be a game quite that big. Nintendo has few games that carry lots of hype, and they've already passed (Zelda, Mario, SSBB, Kart). Neither Zelda nor Brawl are big enough to manage 4mil in one week, and Mario's debuts aren't that big. Besides, Japan isn't into 3D Mario.
Its only real advantage is it has Japan on its side, and (shown above) they have proven they can move insane amounts of software, considering the size of the market. Unfortunately, this mainly applies to FF and DQ, and DQ isn't big enough outside of Japan. It's also highly doubtful a main FF will hit the Wii.
So, the only thing left really is the Wii Series. Wii Fit debuted at 1.6mil, as it was severely constrained by supply. If Nintendo hyped Wii Sports Resort enough, it may have a respectable launch (maybe around Wii Fit level). That's the only game I can see launching very high in the future. They still do have 2-3 years for a bigger Wii Series game launch, though.