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Forums - Sales Discussion - Poll: Who will win the Console Wars?

WiteoutKing said:
senatorpjt: I uh... play my Wii on an HDTV. Having HD had/has no impact on my choice in console purchase.

 I too play my wii on an HDTV, but HD has had an impact on my console consideration.  I would not even consider getting a PS3/360 if I didn't have an HDTV. As it stands I am still unsure which I am going to get but I know for sure I would want the HDTV before the HD console.



To Each Man, Responsibility
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1. Wii: 156,453,343
2. Xbox 360: 27,543,232
3. Playstation 3: 8,343,211


4. Nintendo DS: 166,343,235
5. Playstation Portable: 28,343,213
6. iRiver G10: 549,342

7. Playstation 2: 133,342,231


Considering where the PSP is right now, that's an... awful low expectation of the system from here on out, alex... The DS figures are a bit shocking too. Reachable, but very optimistic.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

If Sony will support PlayStation 3 ten years to 2016/2017,
like they have said they would, then it could end like this:

1. PS3
2. Wii
3. 360

Otherwise:

1. Wii
2. PS3
3. 360

Till now PS3 has been in the bottom due to lack of games and its high price. But I believe from the
bottom there's only one way and it's up. Like in the two previous generations Sony will have the best
first party lineup, plus plenty of AAA games that are coming only to PS3 and 360. We already know some
of the upcoming killer games that have been announced at E3 and earlier, but PS3 will probably have
sequels to such a big names as God of War etc too. Not to forget other adventure games and RPG genre.
Bluray and backwards compatibility will help PS3 also in the future. Bluray especially if it wins the HD
format war. The biggest thing holding PS3 back is the swinish price tag. But the price will go down and
there will surely be also games to casual gamers like PS2 has (Eye Toy, SingStar, Dance Dance Revolution, Buzz, platformers and so on).

360 has too similar games to a PC, for example lots of FPS games. And many of the 360 exclusive games
are coming PC too like Lost Planet (already out), Gears of War... It's just like with the older Xbox. We
have seen Jade Empire, Halo 1 & 2 etc. on PC. And I would rather play Alan Wake, Bioshock, Splinter Cell and others with PC than 360.

Wii is a another story. It sells with a cheap price and controller hype. Everybody wants to try the new
controller and the new way of playing games. Some have buy it just to experience the new thing, some for
a party machine etc. If Wii would sell lets say for example 100m, it would not happen because of Mario and other traditional Nintendo games, that didn't lead Gamecube to the success, but Wiimote.

I don't think Wii is a fad and it's going to go strong for years. Still it was already outdated when it came out and I don't believe it's going to last till 2017 with the older hardware. PS3 instead is a better investment for the longer future, because of the strongest hardware. And while PS3 has the best future capable hardware of the three consoles, it's not just about the hardware. The games are what matters in these "console wars" and Sony/PS3 will have most appealing games like PS1 and PS2 did have. So later you will leave buying (cheaper) PS3 only, if you don't want to play the best console games that are coming in following years.

That said, I don't own any of the current generation consoles. I play mostly with my PC, but I probably get later PS3 (and might get Wii too) when the prices will drop (much more). I know that plenty of my friends are also just waiting bigger price drops for the PS3 until they are getting the machine. 500-1000$ is just too much for it.



RolStoppable said:

That's not really an answer to my post. You said, I repeat:

Nintendo managed to pull in so much hype with their talk about changing gaming and a secret controller they had everyone exicited.

So if they were going to win this gen (or at least be competitive with hardware sales) coupled with the clearly lower development costs for Wii games compared to 360 and PS3 games, why didn't 3rd parties give the Wii more support (because according to you they were excited about the Wii, everyone includes 3rd parties)? Most of the 3rd party games so far were (rubbish) ports.

I did answer your question. The answer is because there's money to made on other consoles. The Wii is not the PS2, and it should not be treated as such. I was trying to explain how Sony and Nintendo consoles are very different in the way their fanbases react towards games, and how it shows up in software sales, thus the lack of third party support for the Wii and gamecube. Lets compare the xbox with the Gamecube, for example. Both consoles pretty much sold the same amount of units, 22.50 for Gamescube and 24m for the Xbox. For the Gamecube, out of 41 millon sellers only 16 of them are from 3rd parties, with SA2B being the highest seller at 2.4m Now, 32 of the Xbox's millon sellers are from 3rd parties, with the highest one being Tom Clancy Splinter Cell at 2.93m.

With that said, even if a console has an equal user base of another it doesn't mean 3rd party sales are gonna as good as the other consoles. Lets not forget that the 360 launched first; and with it's high attach rate along with solid 3rd party sales; plus MS and their game funding habits, the 360 had to be a a very apealing option for 3rd parties. And with the success 3rd parties like SE or Konami have had with Sony, you have to figure they wanted to stick with the PS3.

It isn't hard to see why the Wii isn't a 3rd party beast. Lets also not forget about Nintendo's some what questionable relationship with 3rd parties. Put all this together and there's your answer.

 



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Soulreaver said:

If Sony will support PlayStation 3 ten years to 2016/2017,
like they have said they would, then it could end like this:

1. PS3
2. Wii
3. 360

Otherwise:

1. Wii
2. PS3
3. 360

Till now PS3 has been in the bottom due to lack of games and its high price. But I believe from the
bottom there's only one way and it's up. Like in the two previous generations Sony will have the best
first party lineup
, plus plenty of AAA games that are coming only to PS3 and 360. We already know some
of the upcoming killer games that have been announced at E3 and earlier, but PS3 will probably have
sequels to such a big names as God of War etc too. Not to forget other adventure games and RPG genre.
Bluray and backwards compatibility will help PS3 also in the future. Bluray especially if it wins the HD
format war. The biggest thing holding PS3 back is the swinish price tag. But the price will go down and
there will surely be also games to casual gamers like PS2 has (Eye Toy, SingStar, Dance Dance Revolution, Buzz, platformers and so on).

360 has too similar games to a PC, for example lots of FPS games. And many of the 360 exclusive games
are coming PC too like Lost Planet (already out), Gears of War... It's just like with the older Xbox. We
have seen Jade Empire, Halo 1 & 2 etc. on PC. And I would rather play Alan Wake, Bioshock, Call of Juarez and others with PC than 360.

Wii is a another story. It sells with a cheap price and controller hype. Everybody wants to try the new
controller and the new way of playing games. Some have buy it just to experience the new thing, some for
a party machine etc. If Wii would sell lets say for example 100m, it would not happen because of Mario and other traditional Nintendo games, that didn't lead Gamecube to the success, but Wiimote.

I don't think Wii is a fad and it's going to go strong for years. Still it was already outdated when it came out and I don't believe it's going to last till 2017 with the older hardware. PS3 instead is a better investment for the longer future, because of the strongest hardware. And while PS3 has the best future capable hardware of the three consoles, it's not just about the hardware. The games are what matters in these "console wars" and Sony/PS3 will have most appealing games like PS1 and PS2 did have. So later you will leave buying (cheaper) PS3 only, if you don't want to play the best console games that are coming in following years.

That said, I don't own any of the current generation consoles. I play mostly with my PC, but I probably get later PS3 (and might get Wii too) when the prices will drop (much more). I know that plenty of my friends are also just waiting bigger price drops for the PS3 until they are getting the machine. 500-1000$ is just too much for it.


The first party line-up arguments are highly subjective ... In 7+ with the PS2 years Sony was able to produce a similar number of high quality games that had similar sales numbers to what Nintendo was able to do in 5 on the Gamecube; some people are likely to prefer Nintendo's first party developers over Sony's first party developers but that doesn't mean that any company is dramatically better.



RolStoppable said:
HappySqurriel said:

The first party line-up arguments are highly subjective ... In 7+ with the PS2 years Sony was able to produce a similar number of high quality games that had similar sales numbers to what Nintendo was able to do in 5 on the Gamecube; some people are likely to prefer Nintendo's first party developers over Sony's first party developers but that doesn't mean that any company is dramatically better.


It only seems this way because you left out (on purpose?) that the PS2 sold about 6 times more hardware units than the GC, which is obviously made it easier for Sony to get that many millionselling software titles.


I was trying not to get into an unnecessary argument



i think a lot of people in Japan and other countries will not buy the 360 because of bias towards their own companies... even in american how often do you see an asian driving something other that a japanese car? i own a wii and a 360 and see them as completely different machines. Most people i know that play games own a wii (but don't have that many games) and Either the 360 or the ps3 (and buy the majority of the games for the 360 or ps3)
I own a ds lite but i can't help but wonder when they will make really good games for it... so far i am dissapointed at the crappy games fo the system



Some well thought out arguements here, but don't forget people, the Wii is vastly broadening the market.  It's almost irrelavent what the hard-core market does, they are a minority of purchasers.

Just this week one guy from my office played Wii for the first time, going to get one.  Two of my sons friends' played our Wii, one has one now, they other is getting one.  That's 3 new Wii owner, who BTW only 1 owned a game system previously.  And that's this week, I am seeing this all over the place.  Irregardless of what 3rd party games come out, and whatnot.  A LOT of people will buy Wii for WiiSports and a couple of Nintendo titles ALONE. Especially when it starts dropping in price.

Wii >> 175m

PS3 > 60m

360 - 45m



 

So basically your answer is based around the "3rd party games don't sell well on Nintendo systems" myth (and apparently 3rd parties in general believed in this myth as well). If a system doesn't sell well and is carried by 1st party games and the majority of 3rd party games are clearly lacking quality why should 3rd party games sell well?

The reason 3rd parties believe this so called "myth" is because the the numbers show it's some what true. You can not deny that fact that in the last few years 3rd parties have not seen the success on Nintendo consoles that they see in others. 3rd parties are going to look at the facts and numbers; they're not going to go support a system when facts are telling you not to. The Gamecube, in my opinion, had solid 3rd party games on it. but I guess I was different from most other Nintendo fans considering I don't consider Zelda to be god of games. (Thats Mario's job)

You know how Nintendo fans react to 3rd party games?

Yes, actually I do.

I can play Nintendo games on my system, I expect 3rd parties to make games on the same level of quality. I am not wasting my money on ports or games that fail to make good use of the hardware (controller, graphics).

Exactly, and this shows up in software sales. Trying to compete with Nintendo on their console is instant failure. Lets say a developer wants to make a action adventure game. With the type of mentality Nintedo fans have, they will simply decide to wait on Zelda. They will get to thinking, "Zelda's going to be alot better than this. Why not save my money for Zelda?". Considering that almost every highest rated game for eatch generation is made by Nintendo, I think that hold 3rd parties to those standards is a bit stupid. If your expecting 3rd parties to make a platformer thats equal to Mario in quality, you will always be upset. With those type of expectation 3rd parties will never have a chance. You can't expect every good 3rd party game to be one of the highest reveiwed games of it's gen and go on to be a classic. You're missing out on so many good games with those type of high expectations.

Furthermore, the weakness of 3rd party sales on the GC compared to the Xbox just shows the strength of Nintendo's own games once more. 3rd party games can sell well on any successful system, even if it is a Nintendo system, most recent example: the DS (in the past the NES, SNES, GB, GBA).

Could you give some numbers on these systems and compare them to other consoles?

And usually 3rd party games don't sell well on a failing system (including the PS3), except on Microsoft consoles it seems. However, this can be explained by the weakness of Microsoft's 1st party, they lack quality and quantity.

We clearly have different views on what a failing system is...

But anyway, in the end it would have been much easier for you to just admit that you missed a few words in your original statement:

Nintendo managed to pull in so much hype with their talk about changing gaming and a secret controller they had everyone, except 3rd parties, exicited.

I wan't even talking about 3rs parties, to be honest. I was talking more about gamers. The people that buy the consols...