By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Poll: Who will win the Console Wars?

grandmaster192 on 25 July 2007

Even before the Wii launched and was still called the rev I knew it was gonna win. Console wars are won before launch. Nintendo managed to pull in so much hype with their talk about changing gaming and a secret controller they had everyone exicited. Add that with the price and you got a winner. What gamers don't understand is that having the games isn't enough. Just watch what I mean. When Halo 3 comes out the Wii is gonna trash the 360 in sales for that month.



Around the Network
Christopher_G2 on 25 July 2007

Well if it's buy hardware sales the chance of it being anything except the Wii are extremely small. At the very least it would take 6 or 7 year lifespans for the PS3 or 360 to probably even have a shot at that regard.

However software sales could be another situation. The PS3 and 360 will get hardcore gamers who buy games on a regular basis. How many games will casual/non gaming Wii base be buying a year from now or two years from now? The Wii will be the second console for many hardcore gamers, but most of those hardcore gamers will be buying many more games for their primary system, whethter it be the 360 or PS3. Remember for the PS3 and 360 they really depend up software sales, first party sales plus liscensing fees of third party games, for themselves to become profitable down the road.



Sqrl on 25 July 2007
RolStoppable said:

"Who will win the Console Wars?"

I would say the 360. Microsoft can easily outspend Sony if they are willing to do so. Multiplatform games help the 360 more than the PS3. Microsoft really has to completely mess it up to lose against Sony, the 360 has a 6m+ lead over the PS3 after all and sales of the consoles were about even for most of the time.

However, they are only fighting for #2 in this generation.

The Wii isn't participating in a "console war", Nintendo doesn't sell hardware at a loss, they don't buy exclusives (at least it doesn't look like this to me), they just sell the most hardware and software this generation. "Crazy" prediction to conclude this post: The Wii will sell at least 100m more units than the number 2 console this generation.


 Oh ho ho, i see what you're doing...you're trying to steal my signature!!! But it won't work! 

Mostly because its likely my prediction will require your prediction to be true =P Sad isn't it? Thats why they are the crazy predictions though. 
To Each Man, Responsibility
grandmaster192 on 25 July 2007
RolStoppable said:

Except 3rd party publishers, eh?


Well, to be fair there's money to be made on other systems this gen. Nintendo systems are just different then Sony systems. They both have different trends and fan reactions. Nintendo fans will give you game and talk about how it's gonna be the greatest game in history, and that it gonna move units like crazy! Sony fans, however, will give you a list of solid games and talk alot of bull about how they have the most exlusives or good games... You know what I mean. It actually shows up in software sales.



Sqrl on 25 July 2007
RolStoppable said:
Sqrl said:

Oh ho ho, i see what you're doing...you're trying to steal my signature!!! But it won't work!

Mostly because its likely my prediction will require your prediction to be true =P Sad isn't it? Thats why they are the crazy predictions though.


My prediction isn't outlandish at all, I am going with a safe bet, that's why I wrote "crazy" instead of crazy.

I think you are not aware of John Lucas' prediction: The Wii will sell at least DOUBLE the numbers of the PS2 (i.e. 240-250m) and possibly up to 500m, if I remember right.


 You are correct, I was unaware of that, could you provide a link possibly?



To Each Man, Responsibility
Around the Network
retroking1981 on 25 July 2007
GF said:
retroking1981 said:

i predict:

  1. 360
  2. wii
  3. ps3

 Do you really believe the 360 will make up on the rest of regions all the units it's not selling in Japan?

 Anyways, my take on this moment:

 Wii

PS3

360 


Fair point, i think ive been a bit rash with my prediction. im gonna break it down into territories to give a more precise picture.

The 360 is doomed in japan and nintendo seems to have won back the hearts of the Japanese gamer. plus the fact that the japanese market isn't traditionally split as much as the us & europe which would suggest the wii will have about 20m compared to ps3 5m and 360s 1m.

 In america i think the 360 will be the market leader because they seem to have more 'core' gamers than elsewhere, but like i said the us market is a lot more evenly split. ill go for 360 40m, ps3 35m, wii 25m.

Other territories i think is the most difficult to predict. We (im from England) seem to share the same love for 'non-gamer' games like brain age a bit more than america so this would suggest that the wii should be strong. however, at the same time the european market only really exploded in the mid 90's with the ps1 and that 'core gamer' market is still what i believe to be the largest. also the ps brand is huge here, the ps3 is outselling the 360 here with no real decent games and with no price drop. Nintendo have traditionally been the complete opposite, the megadrive outsold the snes and when i was a kid everyone had a master system not a nes, (i wish vgchartz had the ms sales figures). It all depend on whether or not the wii sustains its early momentum. Im gonna go for ps3 35m, wii 20m, 360 15m.

so in total thats:

ps3: 75m

wii: 65m

360: 56m 

Just a bit different from my original predictions, lol.

Anyone agree/disagree?



Astrodust on 25 July 2007

It is definately too early to call. I've always said that all 3 systems will be successful this generation. The problem is that if Microsoft and Sony start concentrating their attack on the Wii they will lose their focus on each other. The Wii just isn't their direct competition anymore. The Wii needs to keep trying to appeal to everyone and hope that hardcore gamers see it as a secondary console.
The BestBuy by my work now have Wii's in stock. They got a shipment of 200 in last Friday and it's still there. I do expect the Wii to be scarce come late September and sales to slow by March of next year, though Wiifit may boost sales again at that time. But Nintendo is surging to that magic number. I expect them to be the first to hit 40 million.



 

 

Sqrl on 25 July 2007
Astrodust said:
It is definately too early to call. I've always said that all 3 systems will be successful this generation. The problem is that if Microsoft and Sony start concentrating their attack on the Wii they will lose their focus on each other. The Wii just isn't their direct competition anymore. The Wii needs to keep trying to appeal to everyone and hope that hardcore gamers see it as a secondary console.
The BestBuy by my work now have Wii's in stock. They got a shipment of 200 in last Friday and it's still there. I do expect the Wii to be scarce come late September and sales to slow by March of next year, though Wiifit may boost sales again at that time. But Nintendo is surging to that magic number. I expect them to be the first to hit 40 million.

Holy crap 200 Wiis for one store??? thats crazy, even at the rate the wii sells those might actually be in stock for a whole week.

 

As for expecting the Wii to cross 40 million first. I expect them to cross 40 million before anybody else crosses 30 million, possibly before anyone crosses 20 million depending on how things play out.

 Edit: @retroking,

What makes you think if that if the Wii sales start to drop nintendo won't drop price also?  Nintendo is not a motionless target they have things they can do to. They just haven't needed to yet. 
To Each Man, Responsibility
Astrodust on 25 July 2007
Sqrl said:
Astrodust said:
It is definately too early to call. I've always said that all 3 systems will be successful this generation. The problem is that if Microsoft and Sony start concentrating their attack on the Wii they will lose their focus on each other. The Wii just isn't their direct competition anymore. The Wii needs to keep trying to appeal to everyone and hope that hardcore gamers see it as a secondary console.
The BestBuy by my work now have Wii's in stock. They got a shipment of 200 in last Friday and it's still there. I do expect the Wii to be scarce come late September and sales to slow by March of next year, though Wiifit may boost sales again at that time. But Nintendo is surging to that magic number. I expect them to be the first to hit 40 million.

 Holy crap 200 Wiis for one store??? thats crazy, even at the rate the wii sells those might actually be in stock for a whole week.

 

As for expecting the Wii to cross 40 million first.  I expect them to cross 40 million before anybody else crosses 30 million, possibly before anyone crosses 20 million depending on how things play out. 

 


Ya 200 is what the lady said. Nintendo knows Canada loves Wii's. The DS does well here too, so I guess Canada loves Nintendo in general.



 

 

Rath on 25 July 2007

Mii.

I would say the wii - that is an obvious answer looking at the current sales trends - but a whole lot can happen in the 4 or 5 remaining years of this gen.