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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which game will sell the most this holiday season?

Sullla on 29 October 2008

It's funny how most people's minds work. Whenever these topics asking for top sellers appear, most everyone focuses on exclusives and ignores multi-platform releases. It's as though they ignore these games because they can't brag about them appearing only on their console of choice. Strange.

Anyway, not a single person seems to agree with me that the new Guitar Hero will be the top seller. Awesome! I get to look like a genius if I'm right. It's worth noting, however, that our front page has Guitar Hero World Tour selling 1m in its first week - in America alone. And we all know that Guitar Hero tends not to be particularly front-loaded in sales...



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

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CaptDS9E on 29 October 2008

People also forget cod which is on many platforms. It will sell very well. Maybe not cod4 numbers, but even half is a big number



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Hyruken on 29 October 2008

As others have said if were talking multi-platform then i would have to say COD4.5 would be a contender as would Guitar Hero World Tour just because of the amount of platforms it is on.

BUT if were talking exclusives and console specific then i think it is pretty obvious Gears 2 will win hands down. The thing has not even started to get the publicity it will and is everywhere already. Even if the game is a flop review wise i can still see it doing mad sales. Not Halo 3 mad but deffinatly around the 4m mark by the end of the year. On the PS3 i just cannot see anything exclusive getting near those numbers. If LBP was a Wii game then i bet that would but because it is a PS3 game i can't see it selling more then say 2m max by the end of the year. People have to remember Gears 1 won game of the year for 2006 and 2007. I would not be surprised to see it win 2008 as well. It is not some average run of the mill game, it is a jugernaut of a title that will shift units like no tommorow. Sony has nothing coming that can do that right now.



Veggie on 29 October 2008
Sullla said:
It's funny how most people's minds work. Whenever these topics asking for top sellers appear, most everyone focuses on exclusives and ignores multi-platform releases. It's as though they ignore these games because they can't brag about them appearing only on their console of choice. Strange.

Anyway, not a single person seems to agree with me that the new Guitar Hero will be the top seller. Awesome! I get to look like a genius if I'm right. It's worth noting, however, that our front page has Guitar Hero World Tour selling 1m in its first week - in America alone. And we all know that Guitar Hero tends not to be particularly front-loaded in sales...

I tend to ignore them because comparing a game on 3 systems (GH:WT) to a game on one system (LBP) is a big difference, and exclusives and multi-platform games shouldn't be on the same "What will sell the most" lists. That is unless you rank a multi-platform game per console.



Fernando on 29 October 2008

Animal Crossing, mostly because the WiiSpeak bundle.

=p



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scottie on 29 October 2008

Wii Sports



MasterZack on 29 October 2008

a easy one: Wii Music.



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Zucas on 29 October 2008
selnor said:
Zucas said:
MontanaHatchet said:
selnor said:

This is a rather easy question. Gears Of War 2 will probably sell about 8 mill LT. I think by Dec 31 it will have sold 6.3 mill. Fable 2 probably 3 mill and 3rdly R2 2 mill. LBP I expect 1.3 mill with 2.5 mill LT.

 

Edited post. Just realised that Halo 2 sold 5 mill in 3 weeks.

Those are some really fanboyish and unrealistic expectations. Gears of War 2 will sell 6.3 million by the end of the year? 8 million lifetime? Are you sure you're not thinking of Halo 3? And your Resistance 2 prediction is laughably low compared to the predictions you made for the other games. LBP is tough to say, but I can't really yell at you for your prediction since your range is so broad and its sales are unpredictable.

Anyways, I'm going to guess Wii Fit, but it really depends on how broad your definition of "holiday season" is.

Haha ya think which is why I usually ignore them to give them as little credibility as possible. I mean that's suggestive of GTA: San Andreas like openers which is just silly. NOt to mention that low of number for Resistance 2 and LBP and not even a mention of Animal Crossing just makes ya want to laugh at humanity and its flaws. And of course no mention of Wii Fit or MK Wii but oh well haha. I don't think he meant it to be a respectable prediction because if he did it wouldn't be anywhere near these numbers.

I'll make it easier to understand what I meant. Halo 2 sold 5 mill in 3 weeks worldwide. Gears 1 sold 5 mill when 360 had 8 mill consoles in the market. I have no problem in thinking that Gears 2 could sell 6.3 mill in nearly 8 weeks on over double the userbase it's predecessor had. In regards to R2 I meant 2 mill by December 31st. Probably some good legs and bundles will get it to about 4 mill LT. LBP I feel will probably only do 1.3 mill by Dec 31st. I still feel it's a niche market and only forum hyped. As anyone I talk to who I know has a PS3 has no intention of purchase.

As for Wii games. Yeah I missed those. Probably Wii music will be ther quite high, And depending on advertising Lips (if advertised showing MP3 connection) could sell well to. My Gears 2 prediction isnt as silly as it seems.

 

 

In normal cirumstances they are absolutely silly but given the market increaes lately it is still somewhat probable.  Now I don't say that to give you hope but rethinking it there is a slight glimmer of chance below that of the 1 percentile.  More realistically though 3 million at Gears 2 lowest and 5 million at it's highest in that timeframe.  I cut that tolerance in half but I think I might want to adjust to more around 4-4.5 million for my prediction.



Zucas on 29 October 2008
Sullla said:
It's funny how most people's minds work. Whenever these topics asking for top sellers appear, most everyone focuses on exclusives and ignores multi-platform releases. It's as though they ignore these games because they can't brag about them appearing only on their console of choice. Strange.

Anyway, not a single person seems to agree with me that the new Guitar Hero will be the top seller. Awesome! I get to look like a genius if I'm right. It's worth noting, however, that our front page has Guitar Hero World Tour selling 1m in its first week - in America alone. And we all know that Guitar Hero tends not to be particularly front-loaded in sales...

You are also the only one combining versions.  Maybe that says something about you.

 



Sullla on 29 October 2008

If you want to make it about exclusives, say so in the title.

Or do you think it's a coincidence that virtuall all of the posters picked games that were exclusive to their console of choice to be the top holiday seller?



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)