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Forums - Sales Discussion - Which game will sell the most this holiday season?

selnor on 29 October 2008
Zucas said:
MontanaHatchet said:
selnor said:

This is a rather easy question. Gears Of War 2 will probably sell about 8 mill LT. I think by Dec 31 it will have sold 6.3 mill. Fable 2 probably 3 mill and 3rdly R2 2 mill. LBP I expect 1.3 mill with 2.5 mill LT.

 

Edited post. Just realised that Halo 2 sold 5 mill in 3 weeks.

Those are some really fanboyish and unrealistic expectations. Gears of War 2 will sell 6.3 million by the end of the year? 8 million lifetime? Are you sure you're not thinking of Halo 3? And your Resistance 2 prediction is laughably low compared to the predictions you made for the other games. LBP is tough to say, but I can't really yell at you for your prediction since your range is so broad and its sales are unpredictable.

Anyways, I'm going to guess Wii Fit, but it really depends on how broad your definition of "holiday season" is.

Haha ya think which is why I usually ignore them to give them as little credibility as possible.  I mean that's suggestive of GTA: San Andreas like openers which is just silly.  NOt to mention that low of number for Resistance 2 and LBP and not even a mention of Animal Crossing just makes ya want to laugh at humanity and its flaws.  And of course no mention of Wii Fit or MK Wii but oh well haha.  I don't think he meant it to be a respectable prediction because if he did it wouldn't be anywhere near these numbers.

I'll make it easier to understand what I meant. Halo 2 sold 5 mill in 3 weeks worldwide. Gears 1 sold 5 mill when 360 had 8 mill consoles in the market. I have no problem in thinking that Gears 2 could sell 6.3 mill in nearly 8 weeks on over double the userbase it's predecessor had. In regards to R2 I meant 2 mill by December 31st. Probably some good legs and bundles will get it to about 4 mill LT. LBP I feel will probably only do 1.3 mill by Dec 31st. I still feel it's a niche market and only forum hyped. As anyone I talk to who I know has a PS3 has no intention of purchase.

As for Wii games. Yeah I missed those. Probably Wii music will be ther quite high, And depending on advertising Lips (if advertised showing MP3 connection) could sell well to. My Gears 2 prediction isnt as silly as it seems.

 



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ganondorf7799 on 29 October 2008

1. Wii Sports
2. Wii Fit
3. Wii Music
4. Wii Play
5. MKWii



selnor on 29 October 2008
vlad321 said:
selnor said:
shio said:
Wrath of the Lich King will probably sell 3 millions in the 24 hours, and another 2 millions until December 31st. I expect it to reach 10 millions lifetime, since World of Warcraft will keep running for YEARS.

Since Warhammer Online released the active userbase of WOW dropped by 7 million. Over the next 12 months Warhammer is the new WOW. Everyone that I know who has played it says it's a far better game. As long as Warhammer release expansions quickly they will dominate. So I predict WOTLK wont do as well as previous WOW expansions.

 

 

That's interesting, I've heard the exact opposite. Everyone I talk to prefers WoW to WAR. Also are you saying that before WAR WoW had 18 million active users? Because I'm sure Blizzard would have announced it to us. You obviously are clueless as to the workings of MMOs so please stop trolling and at least post something on topic.

Actually those are the figures my mate constructively told me after playing for over 8 months game time in WOW(not how long he has owned it, actual in game time added up). His guild is a very well thought of highly rated guild. He wouldnt lie about those figures. Blizzard only release active subscription figures. He uses a company that shows active numbers on average for every 2 weeks. I'll ask him when he finishes work and let you know. He's said various reasons of why War his so much better.

 



megaman2 on 29 October 2008
Ail said:
twesterm said:
1. Wii Fit
2. Gears of War 2
3. Wii Music

I'm not counting WotLK because I don't care and I just don't want to.

 

then you're not answering the question, make your own thread!


owned!

vlad321 on 29 October 2008
selnor said:
vlad321 said:
selnor said:
shio said:
Wrath of the Lich King will probably sell 3 millions in the 24 hours, and another 2 millions until December 31st. I expect it to reach 10 millions lifetime, since World of Warcraft will keep running for YEARS.

Since Warhammer Online released the active userbase of WOW dropped by 7 million. Over the next 12 months Warhammer is the new WOW. Everyone that I know who has played it says it's a far better game. As long as Warhammer release expansions quickly they will dominate. So I predict WOTLK wont do as well as previous WOW expansions.

 

 

That's interesting, I've heard the exact opposite. Everyone I talk to prefers WoW to WAR. Also are you saying that before WAR WoW had 18 million active users? Because I'm sure Blizzard would have announced it to us. You obviously are clueless as to the workings of MMOs so please stop trolling and at least post something on topic.

Actually those are the figures my mate constructively told me after playing for over 8 months game time in WOW(not how long he has owned it, actual in game time added up). His guild is a very well thought of highly rated guild. He wouldnt lie about those figures. Blizzard only release active subscription figures. He uses a company that shows active numbers on average for every 2 weeks. I'll ask him when he finishes work and let you know. He's said various reasons of why War his so much better.

 

Yeah... I have more /played than even him, and by your standard I have more authority and credibility than he does, why are you not listening to me then? Also you said that WAR drew 8 million active uesers away from WoW. That implies 2 things, 1) War has 8 million people playing which is utterly false, hasn't even broken 1 mil yet and 2) WoW had 7 million active users on top of the 11 million just announced, so 18, which is also utterly false.

 



Tag(thx fkusumot) - "Yet again I completely fail to see your point..."

HD vs Wii, PC vs HD: http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=93374

Why Regenerating Health is a crap game mechanic: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=3986420

gamrReview's broken review scores: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4170835

 

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selnor on 29 October 2008
vlad321 said:
selnor said:
vlad321 said:
selnor said:
shio said:
Wrath of the Lich King will probably sell 3 millions in the 24 hours, and another 2 millions until December 31st. I expect it to reach 10 millions lifetime, since World of Warcraft will keep running for YEARS.

Since Warhammer Online released the active userbase of WOW dropped by 7 million. Over the next 12 months Warhammer is the new WOW. Everyone that I know who has played it says it's a far better game. As long as Warhammer release expansions quickly they will dominate. So I predict WOTLK wont do as well as previous WOW expansions.

 

 

That's interesting, I've heard the exact opposite. Everyone I talk to prefers WoW to WAR. Also are you saying that before WAR WoW had 18 million active users? Because I'm sure Blizzard would have announced it to us. You obviously are clueless as to the workings of MMOs so please stop trolling and at least post something on topic.

Actually those are the figures my mate constructively told me after playing for over 8 months game time in WOW(not how long he has owned it, actual in game time added up). His guild is a very well thought of highly rated guild. He wouldnt lie about those figures. Blizzard only release active subscription figures. He uses a company that shows active numbers on average for every 2 weeks. I'll ask him when he finishes work and let you know. He's said various reasons of why War his so much better.

 

Yeah... I have more /played than even him, and by your standard I have more authority and credibility than he does, why are you not listening to me then? Also you said that WAR drew 8 million active uesers away from WoW. That implies 2 things, 1) War has 8 million people playing which is utterly false, hasn't even broken 1 mil yet and 2) WoW had 7 million active users on top of the 11 million just announced, so 18, which is also utterly false.

 

 

 I have not stated any figures for War. Also I never said they all migrated did I? I also said NOT active subscriptions that went down. It's the monitoring of actively logged in players that have dropped significantly. My mates whole guild has been inactive for about a month on WOW. I also never said he was better than you did I?. But you can tsay someone that has played that length of time does not know MMO's. Jeez come down from your horse a minute.



Solid on 29 October 2008

Wii fit first, and I think CODWAW got good chances too. COD4 is played a lot and WAW looks like the same with some additionnal content.. and the beta is great :D



perpride on 29 October 2008

I thought Wrath of the Lich King was just an expansion?

Gears of War 2.



Ail on 29 October 2008
selnor said:
vlad321 said:
selnor said:
vlad321 said:
selnor said:
shio said:
Wrath of the Lich King will probably sell 3 millions in the 24 hours, and another 2 millions until December 31st. I expect it to reach 10 millions lifetime, since World of Warcraft will keep running for YEARS.

Since Warhammer Online released the active userbase of WOW dropped by 7 million. Over the next 12 months Warhammer is the new WOW. Everyone that I know who has played it says it's a far better game. As long as Warhammer release expansions quickly they will dominate. So I predict WOTLK wont do as well as previous WOW expansions.

 

 

That's interesting, I've heard the exact opposite. Everyone I talk to prefers WoW to WAR. Also are you saying that before WAR WoW had 18 million active users? Because I'm sure Blizzard would have announced it to us. You obviously are clueless as to the workings of MMOs so please stop trolling and at least post something on topic.

Actually those are the figures my mate constructively told me after playing for over 8 months game time in WOW(not how long he has owned it, actual in game time added up). His guild is a very well thought of highly rated guild. He wouldnt lie about those figures. Blizzard only release active subscription figures. He uses a company that shows active numbers on average for every 2 weeks. I'll ask him when he finishes work and let you know. He's said various reasons of why War his so much better.

 

Yeah... I have more /played than even him, and by your standard I have more authority and credibility than he does, why are you not listening to me then? Also you said that WAR drew 8 million active uesers away from WoW. That implies 2 things, 1) War has 8 million people playing which is utterly false, hasn't even broken 1 mil yet and 2) WoW had 7 million active users on top of the 11 million just announced, so 18, which is also utterly false.

 

 

 I have not stated any figures for War. Also I never said they all migrated did I? I also said NOT active subscriptions that went down. It's the monitoring of actively logged in players that have dropped significantly. My mates whole guild has been inactive for about a month on WOW. I also never said he was better than you did I?. But you can tsay someone that has played that length of time does not know MMO's. Jeez come down from your horse a minute.

Can't argue with the famous ' my mate says'.

 

I have over 200 played days combining both my chars so by your definition I am more trustworthy and your mate is a noob, hate to tell you that...

Your mate might want to go to the server selection pannel though and see that the servers have never been so packed as they are right now.

The only folks taking time off Wow right now are the high end raiding guilds not bothering with achievements and waiting for the next raids to come live with the expansion....

My guild is ranked in the top 200 for the US, raiding is slow right now and we at most spend 2 nights on it but people have been logging on for achievements ( I'm the exception I prefer PS3 trophies so I play wow like 8-9 h/week instead of 20 or so a few weeks ago, my play time will raise with WOTLK though).

 

 



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !

xman on 29 October 2008
Khuutra said:
Chrizum said:
Either Gears of War 2, Wii Music or Wii Fit.

 

Hell, this works. Wii Fit outselling Gears 2 would be hysterical, but I'll put money on it being one of them.

 

There simply wont be enough WII fits to outsell gears 2



PS3, WII and 360 all great systems depends on what type of console player you are.

Currently playing Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2, Fallout 3, Halo ODST and Dragon Age Origins is next game

Xbox live:mywiferocks