As someone has already pointed out those numbers appear to be shipped to retail not sold to consumer which is what the VGC 9.5M number represents.  Which number you use is ultimately inconsequential of course, just so long as you compare shipped VS shipped and sold vs sold.

Either way we look at it, shipped or sold, GT4 was utterly slaughtered in the race to 10M by GTA:SA which beat it by probably 52 weeks or more. With a smaller install base it defies common sense to think that GT5 would magically outperform GT4 in sales pace in the dramatic fashion that needs to occur.

Hell, GTA 4 on two platforms took ~56% longer to break 10M than GTA:SA on the larger install base of the PS2.  And GT5 on the PS3 would be lucky to launch with an install base equal to what GTA4 did across both SKUs.

Short of a parting of the oceans (seas are too small) or a big "FREE" sticker on every box its simply not going to break the 9 week record, and frankly I don't think anything else currently announced has a shot at it either.  Folks need to understand there are only like 30 games that have ever even broken 10M units at any point in their life....and GTA:SA is the only one to even crack the top 10 that wasn't made by Nintendo.  Hell the only company in that list that isn't Nintendo, Sony or Rockstar is Maxis with "The Sims".  If you're not a Nintendo game (22 of them), a GTA game (3 of them), or GT (2 of them) you don't even have a chance to break 10M without truly "WoW"ing people. And if you meet one of those criteria you're still far from assured a seat at the 10M club. And if you want to do it in under 9 weeks? Ha! Good one!  For that you pretty much need to be a GTA game...

GT5? are u serious i mean i have 4 but you think that its going to beat GTA SA?
....no no no your telling me that like half the people that own a PS3 will buy GT5? really?

... You aren't very bright, are you?

Wow, this must be the first time I've been discussing with people of both sides, one calling me a disilusional pro Sony, and some calling me hopelessly against Sony.

I'm going to stop quoting people with the feature, as it gets so darn long right now.

"Hey! wake up! GT5 cannot sell 10Mil. Even GTAIV, the most popular franchise, far more popular than GT, didn't sell 5 Mil yet. Why a game less popular can sell 2 times more??? It doesnt make sense and I think everybody who believe it will sell 10 Mil believe also PS3 will sell 100 Mil units and that won't happen. Sorry!"

GTA IV was a multiplatform game. This gen has a lot of Ps3+360 owners, and that surely made the number lower.

I do not believe the Ps3 will sell 100M, but look at Mario Kart. It is going to have sold 10M with an userbase of around 40 million. The Ps3 is obviously going to exceed this number, or at least tie it by GT5's release. 

Now, GT5 is not going to come near the best selling non-bundled console games (MKWii and Wii Fit), but it could make 10M. 8M is a shoe in.

It is not going to do the feat instantly though. It is probably going to do a more SMG or SSBB approach, and I think that in overall sales, it is going to end pretty close to them.

For GT5 to sell 10 mil, first it has to be released.

I just hope it comes out before all the cars in it are considered Antique Classics.

as for it selling to 10 mil faster than GTA:SA, I don't think so.

Of course GT5 is going to be the fastest selling game ever. By the time it releases, the world's population will be in the low trillions and the PS9 will be in a billion homes.

In reality, it's not going to happen. I doubt GT5 will sell 10M. By the time it comes out it'll be, what, 6 years since the last main game in the series, and 4 years since the PS3 released? GT4 did well because GT3 did crazy good, and GT3 did crazy good because it launched with amazing graphics less than a year after PS2 launched.

Even if GTA5 graphics are good, it'll be too little, too late to break the 10 million barrier. Furthermore, by the time it comes out, it won't look spectacular compared to the stuff we'll be seeing from the X-Box 720 and PS4 previews/trailers/screenshots.

I should point out that by GT5 I mean games yet to be released. I don't think anything's going to beat San Andreas anytime soon...

@Kantor: People surely take you seriously right? It may sound like a direct attack towards you, but it had to be done; You expect PS3 to outsell both the 360 and the Wii for the rest of the year?

It's obvious that your opinions are biased towards the PS brand. I myself can't see GT5 as the fastest title to 10 million, there's no way. The userbase will not be big enough and the game should have a ridiculous attach rate to do so.

Some franchises have sold better than they did last gen, likely because of said "wow" factor, most notably DMC and MGS:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Devil+May+Cry+3+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Devil+May+Cry+4+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=Devil+May+Cry+4+-+X360&weeks=100

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Metal+Gear+Solid+3%3A+Snake+Eater+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Metal+Gear+Solid+4%3A+Guns+Of+The+Patriots+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100

BOTH versions of DMC4 are trending above DMC3, and MGS4 is only just now entering into its first holiday season, compared to MGS3 which was released during the holidays in NA and JP.

The "wow" factor has a serious effect on major franchises, and it's why GT3 outsold GT2, why FFX outsold both FFVIII and FFIX, etc. etc., all despite releasing on MUCH smaller userbases than their predecessors.

GT4 shipments are at 10.18M.

Is Polyphony Digital a good enough source?

http://www.polyphony.co.jp/english/list.html

That is "shipments", which is why it's a better number. "Shipments" are often more accurate than "sales" on a long enough timeline. This is because it is easier for one company to track what they've shipped than to add up a bunch of retail sales *estimates* from all sorts of different sources, especially for a game that will sell 100s of Ks in smaller, poorly tracked European markets. Want to subtract 100K for "copies on shelves"? Go ahead. But don't pretend there's almost 700K "copies on shelves."