First, I want to brag about my 41,000 PS3 prediction for the prediction league (ioi's actual was 41,005, making me 99.99% accurate! :D).

But more to the point, I wondered what people expect with regard to PS3 sales over the rest of the summer, given that there are plenty of PS3s to be had at $499 at this point.  Will they stay at an elevated level or gradually/immediately decline?

Looking at the release calendar at ign.com, we have:

August 14 Lair

August 14 Madden 2008

August 21 GRAW 2

August 28 Warhawk

September 4 Heavenly Sword

So we have a few weeks until the one-two of Lair and Madden on the 14th.

Personally, I'd predict that we see a slow decline as those who want the PS3 at $500 snap them up, then less of them the next week, and less the week after.  Maybe something like 41,000-->35,000-->28,000-->23,000, then when Madden hits back to 40,000 or even 45,000 for a week or two.  I don't think any of the other games will have a huge impact.

Opinions? 

based on this weeks numbers id say an average of less than 30k a week from here o out would be incredibly dissappointing.

What is encouraging is that the sales more than doubled, which means unless sony is trying to end themselves they will HAVE to keep the price point at the most $500 from here on out, which is good with the rumors going around so if they do keep the $500 ceiling i think an avg of 30k is reasonable, but id hope with Lair and HS we will see it bump to close to 40k after the software is reviewed and out there.

This is exaxtly how it was with the ps2 in the same time period. They need to cut the price everywhere and cut it again in the U.S by the holidays if they want to conquer the market.

Um well after this week I think we'll see the sales cut at a 1.5 ration. Putting sales at about 30,000. And then they'll slowly keep going down until of course Madden 08 releases and then drop again til Heavenly Sword releases. And then once again slowly go down until other big releases and then of course Holiday season.

Heavenly Sword is slated for September 28 I believe.

I think sales will stay above 30k a week from here on out.

I expect they will be holding around 35,000-45,000 range, and when lair is released and the other Huge games I expect it to rise to the 40,000-60,000 range, and the holidays at the 80,000-100,000 range thats "if" the roumered $399.99 ps3 isnt released. Note: those are weekly sales.

 maybe its just me. but none of these ps3 games caught my interest. in my opinion they're rather weak.  i dont think the ps3 is worth $499 yet. I'll wait for metal gear solid 4, then ill buy a ps3.

I actually personally expected a bigger boost for the PS3 this week, followed by a steeper-than-expected decline. I suppose I will stick to my guns and say that I expect a drop to 35k - 30k - 28k before the big games hit, then I would need to re evaluate.

Was there a sharp drop off in sales after the 20gb PS3 at $499 was discontinued? If so, I would expect sales to continue to be at increased levels.. If not, then I would expect the numbers to decrease again after another week or so. I'm guessing that the majority of the surge we saw this week was from people who were already considering buying a PS3 jumping on a perceived bargain, not because it is truly at an attractive price point now.

$500 is still a good deal of money, personally I can't yet justify spending that much on a console any more than I could $600.