Alright, these 4 games seem to be the flagship franchises that will spur on their respective consoles through this holiday season. LBP and F2 are being released in the same week, as are R2 and G2. This competition is very interesting to me, and i think can dictate the tide of how the hardware will do this season.
I will list the pros and cons of each game individually as far as only SALES POTENTIAL is concerned and nothing to do with quality of gameplay, graphics, etc. This is all strictly my opinion.
LBP vs. F2
LittleBigPlanet
(+) Mass marketing. Sony is backing this thing extremely highly, with lots of high budget advertisements scattered everywhere.
(+) Bundling. And not just any ordinary bundle, its very extremely attractive.. like people would be willing to buy the box on Ebay.
(+) Great media. The idea behind LBP being "a limitless world" seems to be hitting a lot of people quite fashionably, especially game reviewers such as IGN. Expect high ratings from this thing (some are even putting 10's already even before the game is released)
(+) Casual + Hardcore satisfied. There's plenty here to do for the hardcore fan with the level creation, and the casual fan won't be left behind either since its a pretty simple platformer with only three buttons to really worry about, not to mention that the main character is rather cute, which will appeal to women and kids (the market that Sony seems unable to get).
(-) It's a new IP. There's always a larger risk of flopping for new IP's.
(-) Lack of information. While Sony has taken giant leaps to educate every gamer out there about the things LBP can do, the mass majority still do not know what this game even is.
(-) Strange concept. People will have a hard time coming to grips with the idea, and may just steer away from it like it were a niche title.
(-) Question whether this game can indeed push hardware. Again, its not an established IP that people have been following and the concept is relatively unknown and strange.
Fable 2
(+) Established IP. It was a pretty successful game in the original Xbox generation (2.6 million sold according to this site).
(+) Quality starved RPG market. There simply aren't that many good RPG's out there at the moment in the next gen consoles.
(+) Lionhead Studios. These guys have been known to produce quality, and a lot of people are going to be driven by the name.
(+) Freedom concept. Molyneaux has had lots of opportunities to market this game as having the ability to be a one player MMO, quite a compelling idea in itself.
(-) Not as much marketing. Compared to the other titles this holiday, this game seems to be suffering from inadequate attention.
(-) Cutting the limited edition. Seriously, I'm sure this pissed off a lot of fans.
(-) Molyneaux' ceaseless rambling. Yes, its a positive thing for him to market the freedom concept. But he keeps going on and on and on about other things unrelated to his game, and recently he even 'requested' that game reviewers 'understand' where the game is coming from before reviewing it. Sounds like he's afraid someone might find something majorly wrong with it
(-) Not Bundled. This game is supposed to, according to Molyneaux, bring the non-gamer into the equation. Why, then, would Microsoft bundle stuff like Kung-Fu Panda in its holiday lineup and not its big exlusive RPG?
Edge: LittleBigPlanet. Simply because of the amount of marketing going behind it. Both titles have the potential to be big hits, but the mother company's backing of LBP, I think, will be the determining factor.
R2 vs. G2
Resistance 2
(+) Very compelling marketing. The whole Project Abraham thing (calling random people about a disaster) along with a whole website featuring a collection of gruesome experiments, coupled with a really complex alternate history thing is a very smart way of going viral.
(+) Large monsters. Ordinary people don't see the fun gameplay to be had in a shooter. They see the enemy design, and that 300-foot tall chimera would've convinced a few onlookers, and might just interest some casual gamers.
(+) Resistance 1 = success. Despite being a launch title and having little more graphics than a PS2 game, and the fact that the PS3 user base was much smaller back then, it went on to sell 3+ million copies. If that's any indication, this game should surpass that if not simply because the PS3 install base now is much bigger.
(-) Its another shooter. PS3 has so many shooters already and more to come.
(-) SOCOM. This might just steal some of the thunder away because of the relatively close release dates.
(-) Gears 1 > Resistance 1. By far, Gears 1 was a better game and a larger success. The chances of their sequels following the same pattern are rather high.
(-) PS3 lack of install base in America. Shooters are typically successful in the USA, but with the PS3 having less than 6 million consumers in its single largest market, install base might just become a hindrance.
Gears of War 2
(+) Heavy marketing budget. Lots of ads circulating everywhere about the action packed sequences (and there are plenty of them).
(+) Gears franchise familiarity. Lots of people already associate Gears as a 'Halo' (flagship) type of game for Microsoft.
(+) 360 install base in America. the USA loves their shooters, and the 360 has a large chunk of consumers in the states.
(-) Gears 1.5. Some people tend to think that this version of Gears is simply an expansion set with few new features. Some reviewers might take this as a point for low scoring.
(-) Multiplayer is overshadowed. Resistance 2 is marketing heavily on its massive multiplayer, which has the potential to eclipse Gears 2's appeal on this aspect simply because of the numbers being thrown, and numbers are the most easily recognizable statistic for a layman. (R2 has 60).
Edge: Gears of War 2. The install base in America, I believe, will dictate how this battle goes. The difference between the 360 and the PS3 in that region that loves its shooters is simply too large.
Discuss :D (all of this is strictly my opinion)
