Okay, this is a very short post, so that people are actually going to read it (unlike my normal threads, this is a bit of a test).

I think it has a shot (bundled game excluded of course).

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2&reg2=All&game2=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg3=All&game3=Pokemon+Gold+%2F+Silver+-+GB&weeks=52

GTA:SA sold 12.15M in its first 12 months. It holds the record as of now.

Mario Kart Wii should be able to have sold 10M by the start of 09 (probably more).

That means that it is going to need ~ 2M sales over 4 months (15 weeks). Then it would need 133K/week sales to make it. A lot, but as it would probably have sold more than 10M by the end of the year.

So, what do you think?

Oh, and Wii Fit has no change. It has 10 weeks to sell 5M (due to the early Japan launch)

When there is no choice people go with what they have available... so Mario Kart and Smash Brothers should sell to infinity and beyond.

Won't GTA4 outsell it tho considering mulitiple platforms?

Mario Kart Wii will be the best selling title this gen, not counting Wii Sports and Wii Play.

No choice? Is that your reasoning behind why Nintendo dominates all the top selling lists?

And no, I don't think GTA4 has a shot, here's why:

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Mario+Kart+Wii+-+Wii&reg2=All&game2=Grand+Theft+Auto+IV+-+PS3&reg3=All&game3=Grand+Theft+Auto+IV+-+X360&weeks=25&weekly=1

GTA4's legs aren't going to be enough - at 35k per week it would need a 1M holiday boost, and that may be too much. I'm sure Mario Kart will pull ahead soon, if it sells consistently above 100k and receives a moderate holiday boost, it'll fly by no problem.

I don't know about the first 12 months, but it will be selling long after 12 months.

Funny, I have lots of choice of games I want to buy but haven't yet (money issue)

Mario Kart sells because it is a damn fine game.

And no GTA4 won't, because it isn't a damn fine game, it sold early on because it was hyped, but it has slowed down significantly... Mario Kart will surpass the combined console sales of GTAIV before the end of January, maybe even before the end of December if the Christmas boosts are significantly in it's favour.


@OP... I think it's a tough call, post-Christmas sales could be similar to what the sales are now if it follws the path of MKDS, in which case I would say yes it will manage it, but it might slow down in 2009.

In all truth though, you need to add some of the Xbox versions sales to the SA total, because the Xbox version released within a year of the PS2 version (about 8 months after it seems) Unfortunately there is no weekly data for the XB version, only a total figure.

How can Wii owners deny that there is a shortage of Wii games this year? It just boggles my mind...

Do you think Mario Kart would sell the same if it was on a console that had GTA4, MGS4, Soul Calibur4, Devil May Cry 4...etc...I decided to stick with 4's :)

We can deny it because it's not true. Just look at the catalog.

Partly because I wasn't just talking about future games, there are a number of games already released (mostly earlier this year, but also 2007) I would like to buy, but that doesn't mean there are no games coming out now and soon I also want (de-blob being the greatest of those, which I believe is out soon, however I won't be buying it until I get some money)

 I do think so. Mario Kart Wii is a game that sells consoles, and has damn fine gameplay.

And I can't think of any audience that has a Wii, but would skip MKWii if the games you mentioned were on the Wii. Expanded audiences won't buy those games, but they would still buy MKWii, Nintendo-fans would still buy MKWii even if they would buy one or more of those games as well, and hardcore snobs don't have a Wii to begin with and would rather play those games on a non-Nintendo console, because Nintendo is ruining the industry and they would help Nintendo to do so by buying their platform.