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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD Predictions

fabinou on 10 March 2007

TheSource said: I am resurrecting this thread. One interesting thing to note - when browsing through the million sellers on World Wide software shipments on this website..it said Wii-Play had around 300,000 shipped in North America. That makes me think sales of that game are +/-50k of 300,000. Numbers should be out in exactly six days. Expectations: - Wii sells between 300,000 and 500,000 units. Software drives sales. Wario Ware, Zelda, Wii Play, Rayman, Red Steel, Sonic, SSX Blur, Super Monkey Ball, Madden, Call of Duty 3, Elebits sell over 25,000 units during the month...2-3 of which sell over 100,000...With Wii Play selling around 300,000 - PS3 sells between 150,000 and 225,000 units. This is probably the weakest month of the year in America for PS3. Top software..VF5, Resistance, Madden, the crappy sonic, Call of Duty 3 sell over 25,000 units during the month...1 or 2 sell over 100,000. - 360 sells between 175,000 and 325,000 units. Software drives sales. Lost Planet, Crackdown, Gears of War, Madden, Call of Duty 3, DDR, the crappy sonic, sell over 25,000 units during the month...4 or 5 of which sell over 100,000... - DS faces shortages. Hardware around 300k. Diddy Kong Racing, Nintendogs, New Super Mario Bros sell over 100,000. - PSP sells around 250k. A bunch of software sells over 25,000..but none over 100,000. - PS2 hardware sells between 200,000 and 300,000...people wonder about HD and Blu-ray..but DVD's are still only in 30 million households...PS2 works well as a cheap game machine and DVD player...3 or 4 games sell over 100,000 units because the PS2 base is 40 million in America - Gamecube officially dies, selling under 25,000 units of hardware. Software is all but dead as well except for Twilight Princess which does like 100,000. .
Almost totally agree with you except that I don't think (as I have already said) Nintendo could ship more than 80K a week. So 4*80 = 320000... And Sonic outsells SSX Blur by 100 000...



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TheSource on 11 March 2007

I'd like to keep an eye on marketshare in here as well. Starting with January and working backwards (for Americas - next gen consoles only) Next gen total = 8,199,000 360 - 66.29% Wii - 21.01% PS3 - 12.70% Through December 31: (7,106,250 total) 360 - 71.81% Wii - 17.49% PS3 - 10.70% Through Nov 30: (4,543,500 total) 360 - 83.25% Wii - 11.85% PS3 - 4.9% At January rates 360 would be down to a plurality by the end of June. Unless 360 can outsell PS3 & Wii combined in that time period for at least one month, I suspect no console will have the 'majority' the rest of this generation in North America. Prediction: End Feb: 360 - 61%, Wii 25%, PS3 14% End March: 360 - 57%, Wii 27%, PS3 16% End April: 360 - 53%, Wii 31%, PS3 16% End May: 360 - 51%, Wii 32%, PS3 - 17% End June: 360 48%, Wii 33.5%, 18.5% End July: 360 - 47%, Wii 34%, PS3 19% End Aug: 360 - 46%, Wii 34%, PS3 20% End Sept: 360 - 46%, Wii 35%, PS3 19% End October: 360 - 43%, Wii 37%, PS3 20% End November: 360 - 45%, Wii 36%, PS3 19% End December: 360 46%, Wii 36%, PS3 18% Net 2007 Gains/Losses 360 -20% Wii +15% PS3 +5%



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

TheSource on 12 March 2007

The MIGHTY ONE, Patcher, says that he expects the following sales data for February NPD (Feb 4- March 3) Wii - 350,000* (assumes sales of 87,500/week..same as January..when 435,000 sold) PS3 - 200,000 *(assumes sales of 50,000/week..roughly like January...when 244,000 sold) XBOX 360 - didn't say..but I would guess in the high 200,000's...280,000..70,000/week Christopher G_2...are you Patcher?? Software: The MIGHTY ONE says, 7 title sold over 100,000. Crackdown is mentioned. My hunch is Wii Play and Crackdown are are the highest titles..with Zelda, Gears, Guitar Hero 2, VF5, Resistance are the other titles...unless Diddy Kong Racing or Nintendogs or something snuck in there. I think its also possible Wii Play bombed, because the market the game is aimed at, doesn't do much research on video games..At the same time..its basically a free controller + $10... which is I think it is more like it is number one or number two game of Feb.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

shams on 13 March 2007

Nice predictions everyone - they look really accurate. Just want to chip in and say that I expect Wii Play near the top, along with Crackdown - and the games from Jan (GHII, GOW, Nintendogs, NSMB). Maybe Lost Planet can sell another 100k? Resistance should be up there as (those PS3 units selling need to sell some software!), as may VF5. Wonder how the big PSP titles went? Zelda GC/Wii another 100k? (sold 400k combined in Jan)



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Game Assessment website

Wii code: 2263 4706 2910 1099

Stromprophet on 14 March 2007

When is NPD reporting?



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TheSource on 14 March 2007

Thursday, March 15th after the US Stock Market closes..about 4:30 pm on the East Coast of the USA. It takes a while for data to be leaked though



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu