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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD Predictions

I would like to set up another anticipatory thread for next (February) data. Obviously, I don't have data like Bunkum does, but I do have a good eye for media accounts (see my news items) I would like to clear up a couple things right away: 1) What length of time is covered for February (I assume it is 4 weeks - February 3 until Mar 3)? 2) If that is the case, does that mean the data will be released March 15? Here is what I think can be expected for February: Wii sales remain strong and nearly steady at 350k-500k. Sonic has been fairly well recieved by traditional gamers (I have not beaten it yet, but so far I'd give it around an 8, however, I have not run into control issues yet). Wii Play and Warioware continue to sell well to casuals. SSX does fairly well, but comes out too late in the month to be a big player (i.e. Wii top 10, not multi top 10) PS3 sales stay about the same - 250k +/- 50k despite the shorter time frame. This is due to VF5, an excellent fighter by all accounts (have not played it yet, plan to tommorow). Resistance will keep selling well. 360 has Gears, and Lost Planet to keep hardware sales up. I think they will outsell Sony again, but still pale in comparison to Wii. DDR could actually do pretty well when it comes out...but like SSX it is probably releasing too late in the month. Top 25 Software estimates.. 1) Gears of War (360) 270,000 2) Lost Planet (360) 258,000 3) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii) 195,000 4) Wii Play (Wii) 177,000 5) Diddy Kong Racing DS (DS) 171,000 6) Guitar Hero 2 (PS2) 155,000 7) Warioware Smooth Moves 139,000 8) Resistance: Fall of Man (PS3) 136,000 9) Nintendogs(DS) 125,000 10) Sonic & The Secret Rings (Wii) 122,000 11) New Super Mario Brothers (DS) 116,000 12) Brain Age (DS) 104,000 13) Madden 2007 (360) 100,000 14) SSX Blur (Wii) 98,000 15) Madden NFL 2007 (PS2) 91,000 16) Madden NFL 2007 (PS3) 85,000 17) Virtual Fighter 5 (PS3) 82,500 18) Yoshi's Island DS (DS) 75,000 19) Madden NFL 2007 (Wii) 70,000 20) Rayman Ravid Rabbits (Wii) 64,000 21) DDR Universe (360) 60,000 22) The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (GC) 55,000 23) Call of Duty 3 (360) 50,000 24) Halo 2 (Xbox) 44,000 25) Mario Kart DS (DS) 41,000 Hardware: (With top 25 game sales) Wii 450,000 (Zelda, Wii Play, Sonic, SSX Blur, Madden, Raving Rabbits) 6 DS 350,000 (DKR,Nintendogs, NSMB, Brain Age, Yoshi's Island DS, Mario Kart DS) 6 PS2 325,000 (Guitar Hero 2, Madden 2007) 2 360 289,000 (Gears of War, Lost Planet, Madden 2007, DDR, Call of Duty 3) 5 PSP 267,000 (-) GBA 232,000 (-) PS3 225,000 (Resistance, Madden 2007, Virtual Fighter 5) 3 GC 18,000 (Zelda) 1 XBOX 500 (Halo 2) 1 Comments? Criticisms? Suggestions?



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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your hardware numbers seem a tad too high considering most february's a short month (made even shorter b/c the NPD included a week of Feb. in the January data). Wii: 380,000 DS: 300,000 PS2: 220,000 360: 240,000 PS3: 200,000 PSP: 185,000 GBA: 140,000 GC: 15,000 XBOX: Unlisted



My Top 5:

Shadow of the Colossus, Metal Gear Solid 3, Shenmue, Skies of Arcadia, Chrono Trigger

My 2 nex-gen systems: PS3 and Wii

Prediction Aug '08: We see the PSP2 released fall '09. Graphically, it's basically the same as the current system. UMD drive ditched and replaced by 4-8gb on board flash memory. Other upgrades: 2nd analog nub, touchscreen, blutooth, motion sensor. Design: Flip-style or slider. Size: Think Iphone. Cost: $199. Will be profitable on day 1.

do u think x360 would beat ps3 in february? after VF5 which is making shockwaves already . my top 5 would be 1) VF5 (ps3) 300k 2)Lost planet 200k 3) legend of ZELDA 180+k 4) Wii Play 170k 5) Gears of War 150k Hardware: Wii 400,000 PS2 325,000 ps3 300,000 DS 280,000 PSP 260,000 x360 240,000 GC 10,000 (Zelda) 1 XBOX 0 null what made you think VF 5 would perform poorly in NA in FEB. ofcourse ps3 kills any competition come march.....i think although Wii would remain but x360 could be completely gone by march. The madness starts with motorstorm



Virtual Fighter 5 has four things against it. 1) It is not a killer app based on recent trends in N.A. 2) When the older versions have sold on PS1 and PS2, they had a much larger user base to sell to (millions vs. under 1.15-1.3 million which is where PS3 will end up at the end of February unless something catastrophic happens) 3) It came out late in February (20th), so even if sells better then any other version, the data will cover only 8 days. Selling over 300k would mean 30%+ of PS3 owners bought the game. Not likely. It takes a series like Zelda, FF, Mario, GTA, etc, to get that kind of attach rate in North America. Wii or 360 games are at the point already where a game that sells to 10% of the userbase is going to break even. 4) Also, those who bought the PS3 at launch are hardcore Sony gamers. They will wait for the more substantial March software, instead of buying VF5 in February.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

A few ideas on Febuary - VF5 won't get huge sales, due it only having a few days to garner sales. I'd expect around 130k units this month, and maybe 150k next month....Regardless if you like it or not. H/W, expect the Wii to continue excellent sales, even into mid or all of March. I doubt the PS3 is going to see any sort of increased sales. "No one" wants a PS3 at that price. And by no one, I mean the 230k that will buy it this month. S/W, mostly holdovers for the major titles minus VF5. When did Wii Play launch this month? My pre-eliminary predictions, subject to massive change. NPD Numbers, not VG numbers Wii - 385,000 NDS - 305,000 360 - 268k (first month above PS2) PS2 - 265k PS3 - 235k PSP - 175k S/W GoW - 145k LP - 160k LoZ:TP Wii = 135k Wii Play - 110k Guitar Hero 2 - 160k Sonic & Secret Rings - 75k Slightly subdued charts from last month - 20% downturn for all the systems (due to 1 less week). No truely big story other than "OmG, Wii continues to dominate" A few notes - LoZ will continue to decline in tier ratio. I was VERY suprised with the numbers - Both totally screwed over my Jan predictions (if I would of had both even at 50%, I would of won the month). Between this and Wario increasing in sales, we can see that the purchasers of the Wii are becoming more and more casual, and they will start driving sales of Wii software and Wii hardware. March will be the true test of each system - lots of games. I predict a 360 upset in March, not in H/W but in S/W domination.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Hardware: DS- 300,000(more supply coming in) Wii - 300,000(supply constraints PS2 - 190,000 360 - 180,000 PSP - 178,000 PS3 - 160,000 Software top ten: GOW: 190,000 Guitar Hero II: 175,000 Nintendogs: 170,000 LOZ: TP Wii: 150,000 Wii Play: 150,000 Madden: 140,000 Sonic: 135,000 Virtua Fighter PS3: 130,000 Resistance: 115,000 Tom Clancy: 90,000



Ranzchic : Your predictions seems good to me : february is a short month and, in my opinion, Nintendo is not able to ship more than 80 000 wiis a week for NA (until april)... so 4*80000=320000. That's all for Wii. NOT more (I'd really like but...). I agree with your sofware numbers, particulary about VF5, Sonic, but not for Wii play (this last is number one in best-selling-amazon.com since a few days (it might be a strong and long selling game as in japan). (And Sonic is number 3 on amazon.com charts (behind FF12 and crackdown) since 2 days.)



I think you're all underestimating Wii Play, remember this thing almost sold a million in Japan, and I can't find it anywhere alot of the stores tell me it sold out day one. Remember it's a cheap game that comes with a wiimote that's also in high demand, not to mention it promises to expend on the gameplay in Wii Sports, granted it had poor reviews, but that doesn't seem to be slowing it down in other countries, and besides nongamers who are interested in it really don't care about reviews, never had. Look at games like Myst. So unless Wii Play didn't ship in large numbers I'm betting it's number one.(I'll be surprised if it didn't ship in large numbers only because it saw a few delays, since the game was finished I imagine it was all about building up stock.)



Well Virtua Fighter 5 will do good but it isnt a hardware mover ....february is a short month I expect lower sales . Something like Wii 360 K PS2 250 K X360 220 K PS3 200 K DS 250K PSP 175K Wii Play is a shit ,it is only selling because it comes with a Wiimote attached ....instead of buying the Wiimote people buy the game with the Wiimote for about the same price .



fabinou said: Ranzchic : Your predictions seems good to me : february is a short month and, in my opinion, Nintendo is not able to ship more than 80 000 wiis a week for NA (until april)... so 4*80000=320000. That's all for Wii. NOT more (I'd really like but...). I agree with your sofware numbers, particulary about VF5, Sonic, but not for Wii play (this last is number one in best-selling-amazon.com since a few days (it might be a strong and long selling game as in japan). (And Sonic is number 3 on amazon.com charts (behind FF12 and crackdown) since 2 days.)
Right. The only way that I see Nintendo shipping more Wii units to America is if the demand for the Wii slows down in other territories, allowing them to ship more to us. I don't see that happening anytime soon. The Wii is selling phenominally.