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PS3 will reach 30 million install base before the X360

Forums - Sales Discussion - PS3 will reach 30 million install base before the X360

psrock said:
when is the ps3 going to start that great run? when?

 

 Well... I have keep hearing "just wait until..." since 2006.



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kn said:
I don't know how you arrive at these numbers, but I tend to look at historical sales as a predictor of future sales. If you take all of 2K8 and average by week (according to VGC), the PS3 has outsold the 360 by 50K or so on average. That still leaves a margin of 5.54 million units. (That's actually UP from about 5.45 a month ago). 5,540,000/50K = 110+ weeks or over two years. Even if the PS3 triples that delta on a worldwide basis for NOV-DEC 2008 and we call that period 8 weeks, That's 800K more sold over the period and shaves that number somwhat. It still pushes us into 2010. The current 360 surge isn't helping matters.

 

I agree. The 360 won't just STOP selling next year, numbers might even go up. My assertion is that the PS3 will likey start closing that gap at a faster pace, if you factor in a number of key things going against the 360 and going for the PS3.



trestres said:
Could be possible, depends on how well 360 sales sustain, and how well the 80GB model is received.

@*bleu-ocelot*: So you say that FFXIII will change the tides in favour of the PS3, when it's a ctaully a multiplatform title that may as well be delayed into 2010?

Come on try another one.

 

It's exclusive in Japan--where it matters.



It's the difference between amateur and professional predictions. One predicts based on existing data and other out of their behind. You decide.

See my sig for an example of amateur.



*bleu-ocelot* said:
trestres said:
Could be possible, depends on how well 360 sales sustain, and how well the 80GB model is received.

@*bleu-ocelot*: So you say that FFXIII will change the tides in favour of the PS3, when it's a ctaully a multiplatform title that may as well be delayed into 2010?

Come on try another one.

 

It's exclusive in Japan--where it matters.

 

 Well... if Final Fantasy XII and Monster Hunter PSP are an indication, there is a big chance that Monster Hunter 3 would sell more than Final Fantasy XIII in Japan (where it matters), specially considering the Wii install base advantage.



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Well I've said many times 2009 is a possibility. But, to be sure I would have to see the outcome of this holiday season.

IF 360 does their rumored price cut next month and Sony doesn't do one until mid next year then no it won't happen.

IF sony matches or if neither company does a price cut, then Sony has a good possibility of catching by end of 2009 given certain games come out next year as rumored, i.e. GT and FF.



Galaki said:
It's the difference between amateur and professional predictions. One predicts based on existing data and other out of their behind. You decide.

Yeah, but there are many things going for the PS3 in the future. Things such as Blu-Ray uptake, software, price cuts, etc.

 



Hopefully its possible but logically I think it will not outsell 360 unless a big price cut happens, but then it may also draw with 360.



I thought the PS3 would be doing a lot better this year (see my sig).
I have gradually come to the realization that there will not be a "breakthrough" in sales until the price gets below $300. No single game can help its cause right now.

I think my 360 and Wii predictions are almost on track, though...



My End of 2008 Hardware Predictions (console only):

Wii : 50 million

360: 28 million

PS3: 24 million

These predictions were made on January 3rd and won't be revised

LINK

*bleu-ocelot* said:
Galaki said:
It's the difference between amateur and professional predictions. One predicts based on existing data and other out of their behind. You decide.

Yeah, but there are many things going for the PS3 in the future. Things such as Blu-Ray uptake, software, price cuts, etc.

 

 

Yeah, only PS3 will progress. While the Xbox 360 will just freeze in time.