Over the holiday season, I think Wii will be the top selling console in all three territories (yes, I think Nintendo is stockpiling right now - the numbers have been steady at 900k to 1.1 million/month).  360 will be very close in the Americas, and may even pull it out.  In Japan it will be last, and in Europe it will be a close third (mainly because this will be the third Christmas/Yule for 360 in Europe, as opposed to the 1st Christmas/Yule for PS3 in Europe).  To me that leaves PS3 a distant 3rd in the Americas, a solid second in Japan, and second in Europe..

My question though is:

Will PS3 sell better in Japan or Europe in Nov-Dec 2007?

Consider that...

It is almost a 2 console market in Japan (360 will likely have under 5% marketshare by the holidays which is my threshold for irrelevancy).

In Japan, PS3 will be in it's second holiday season.

Since launch, the numbers have tailed off in comparable fashion in both regions.  In other words, in terms of time PS3 sales in Europe are about comparable to PS3 sales in Japan in late Feb/early March

Japan is more likely to see big games like Metal Gear Solid 4 actually make it out in 2007.

Europe seems to be Sony's strongest market right now, with the PS2 likely still having another 18 months of strong sales left in it, PSP outsells DS in some markets.

There is no question in my mind that even with under 25% marketshare for PS3 worldwide by the end 2007  (I expect Wii & 360 combined to have over 30 million consoles sold by the end of 2007, meaning PS3 would need to have sold more than 10 million to have over 25% - 6.5 million+ in 6 months starting right now) PS3 sales in the American market will be much higher over the holidays than in Japan or in Europe.

My prediction is that PS3 will sell around 400,000 in Japan this December, and around 520,000 with November included.  For Europe, I expect the sales to be around 600,000 in December, and around 700,000 with November included.

Sales in the USA for the comparable Nov-Dec will be between 1.2 and 1.5 milion I think.

I'm thinking Europe is going to have a better showing than Japan, though that's only my best guess. Europe just seems to be showing more support for the console than Japan at the moment.

Simple... Others!

Surprise ist selling well in europe even with the lack of games right now. I do see the PS EYE, and Singstar having great affect in Europe so I see The a close battle between PS3 and Wii in Europe. In Japan I see Wii toping followed by PS3 then 360. Lastly I see a battle between Wii and 360 in America this Holiday season. My opinion my Janauary 1 2008. Wii=15 million, 360= 12 million, PS3= 7.5-8 million

Your Euro guess is damn low, it is a bigger economy then the US and has a population of 500 million.

PS3 should have no trouble doubling japan sales in "others"

Europe/others.

In Japan, the PS3 has had the advantage of being $450 (ish), been out since November, and had a few major J-titles, yet is being beat rather handily by the more expensive, and more recent European launch. PS3 launched w/ 400-500k first week there, and has done 20k+ every week. PS3 launched w/ ~100k in Japan, and hasn't even hit the million mark.

Therefore, trends show that in Europe/others, PS3 should beat its counterpart in the land of the rising sun by 1.5:1 or even 2:1 if GTAIV does well in Europe on PS3.

X360 has Lost Odyssey for Japan, and imo, that could steal some major thunder from Sony if it was a first-strike vs. MGS4.

my predictions in terms of sales rate during Xmas 2007 :

NA :

Wii = or > Xbox360 > PS3

the big question :
Will PS3 be close from Xbox360/Wii ?
or completely outcompeted by them ?

Europe :

Wii > PS3 > Xbox360

the big question :
Will PS3 have a more significative boost during this period than the 2 others console ?
or the Wii will still sell more than Xbox360/PS3 combined ?

Japan :

Wii > PS3 > Xbox360

the big question : same than for europe in fact :
Will PS3 have a more significative boost during this period than the 2 others console ?
or the Wii will still sell more than Xbox360/PS3 combined ?

Wait & see.

mrstickball said: Europe/others. In Japan, the PS3 has had the advantage of being $450 (ish), been out since November, and had a few major J-titles, yet is being beat rather handily by the more expensive, and more recent European launch. PS3 launched w/ 400-500k first week there, and has done 20k+ every week. PS3 launched w/ ~100k in Japan, and hasn't even hit the million mark. Therefore, trends show that in Europe/others, PS3 should beat its counterpart in the land of the rising sun by 1.5:1 or even 2:1 if GTAIV does well in Europe on PS3. X360 has Lost Odyssey for Japan, and imo, that could steal some major thunder from Sony if it was a first-strike vs. MGS4.

 
I agree, Europe is their only real strong market anymore.  I don't expect the PS3 to do well in Japan at all during the holidays.  They couldn't get sales up during Golden Week so I doubt Xmas will be a whole lot better.  Really I'd say if the holidays go well for the Wii BOTH the 360 and PS3 can be written off as irrelevant in Japan at least till FFXIII, and even assuming that will necessarily pull them out of a sales dive is asking a lot.  Remember Metal Gear Solid is popular in Japan, but hardly a system seller.  Not a single MGS game has broke 1 million sold in Japan.  The PS3 just doesn't seem to hold the interest of the current Japanese market. 

I think the PS3 holds intrest in the market, just not a big interest.

Ultimately, MGS4 will help the PS3 out, but of course, it's like saying Zelda: OoT helped out the N64. It was too little too late. The market had already shifted stronly to the PS1, so despite such an uber-blockbuster (which OoT was a far bigger system seller than MGS4 is), it failed to re-ignite anything major.

This is in strong comparison to the 360, and it's lineup. The 360 hit rock bottom last year in Japan (at 1100 units at worst), and has only gone up since then. It's already had a proven track record (despite still having tepid sales), that a good game increases the market sales incredibly strongly (think, AC4 for the 360 moved more hardware, both percentage and unit wise than NGS did, despite NGS selling equal on it's second week as AC4 did on it's first week). Therefore, games like Lost Odyssey are targeting a far more purchase-friendly market (the rabid otaku JRPG market) than MGS4 is. This means that even if the PS3 sells better (which it will in Japan), it's selling only at equal, or slightly better than the PS3 did last year, whereas Lost Odyssey increases sales YOY by 50, or even 100% already on an ultra-succuesfull (by comparison) last year holiday sales on the 360.

Therefore, we can ask, what's really doing better, a system that during it's first full holiday, that does 0-10% better YOY than launch, or a system that although selling less, does 50-100% better than last year's campaign (which was the most succuessful year that the company had been in Japan for 5 years), whereas the PS3's second year could shape up and be the worst-selling (or 2nd worst selling) year in that company's 12+ year history in the market.

mrstickball said: I think the PS3 holds intrest in the market, just not a big interest. Ultimately, MGS4 will help the PS3 out, but of course, it's like saying Zelda: OoT helped out the N64. It was too little too late. The market had already shifted stronly to the PS1, so despite such an uber-blockbuster (which OoT was a far bigger system seller than MGS4 is), it failed to re-ignite anything major. This is in strong comparison to the 360, and it's lineup. The 360 hit rock bottom last year in Japan (at 1100 units at worst), and has only gone up since then. It's already had a proven track record (despite still having tepid sales), that a good game increases the market sales incredibly strongly (think, AC4 for the 360 moved more hardware, both percentage and unit wise than NGS did, despite NGS selling equal on it's second week as AC4 did on it's first week). Therefore, games like Lost Odyssey are targeting a far more purchase-friendly market (the rabid otaku JRPG market) than MGS4 is. This means that even if the PS3 sells better (which it will in Japan), it's selling only at equal, or slightly better than the PS3 did last year, whereas Lost Odyssey increases sales YOY by 50, or even 100% already on an ultra-succuesfull (by comparison) last year holiday sales on the 360. Therefore, we can ask, what's really doing better, a system that during it's first full holiday, that does 0-10% better YOY than launch, or a system that although selling less, does 50-100% better than last year's campaign (which was the most succuessful year that the company had been in Japan for 5 years), whereas the PS3's second year could shape up and be the worst-selling (or 2nd worst selling) year in that company's 12+ year history in the market.

If you are judging based on comparison, I completely agree.  The problem is comparisons don't equal profit.  Unless you are willing to abuse your parent company's deep profits like Microsoft (a game Sony cannot afford to beat them at) you can't keep showing much support for a region that doesn't support you back.  Microsoft has enough money that they can keep paying for these JRPGs that will slowly raise their sales in Japan, even if they don't ever become anything close to profitable.  Microsoft though has the Xbox 360 down to a range where they aren't paying for hardware losses.  Sony on the other hand is still experiencing massive losses, and is going to need to focus development on the markets where software sales can help balance those losses out.  Japan should be the least of their concerns right now.  Truthfully, this situation considered, the 360 is doing better than the PS3 is in Japan, and, depending on how long SE delays release of FFXIII, could POTENTIALLY outsell the PS3 some weeks (even if not likely catching up in the long run).  Still, when comparing either system to the Wii, it's clear that the Japanese market has shifted focus at an even greater level than they did during the N64 and PSone era.