Saying the PS3 is unlikely to finish in 3rd place is the same as saying that the 360 will likely finish in 3rd place, since we all know who will be in 1st place at the end... I would love to see some decent reasoning behind such a claim, since I consider Microsoft has all the cards they need in place to win against the PS3...

ssj12 said: robjoh said: mrstickball said: PS3 sales constantly go down, but the are bottoming out. It's held steady at 20k/wk in the US, and is around the same in Europe/Others. Japan? It's unsure of right now. It seems though, that the PS3 bottomed out around 8,500 units, but has gone up a bit since then (but no one knows if it'll plummet past the 8.5k mark). What matters is the game release schedule for Sony in Japan. It'll do well in the US/EUR regardless. However, with a major title like MGS4, it could do quite well. Not Wii-levels, but it could pull ~750k in 2 months or so in Japan. The game might pull 750 k, but I doubt that it will sell another 650k PS3:s. Looking at past performance for MGS makes me doubt that it will sell to many systems. We have to count that a lot of the sales will go to the existing PS3 crowd. Name Console Publisher Japan America Others Total Metal Gear Solid Konami 0.78 2.81 2.00 5.59 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty Konami 0.85 2.29 2.42 5.56 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater Konami 0.86 1.42 1.68 3.96 I mean MGS has never sold more than 1 million consols, the game might move another 200 k consols, but a 750k? No way. The hard and bitter truth is that Wii Sport will probarbly sell more than both MGS (that one is quit clear) and Final Fantasy in Japan. I actualy think sony is in the same situation that the Gamecube was in last time, doing better than the xbox in japan, but not enough to pass the xboxs strong sales in USA. Of course Europe might help PS3 something that GameCube failed to do. I know about 30 guys who dont own a PS3 that all said they are buying a PS3 for MGS so I think it will sell a ton of consoles.

 Are you from Japan? Because my whole statemant was about Japan, were I belive that it wont be that big as people seems to belive. (and 200k PS3 is a lot of systems)

Xyrax said: You know, I just dont feel MS get the respect they deserve in these articles.

That's because Microsoft hasn't earned respect. Nintendo and Sony have proven themselves powerhouses with multiple hugely successful worldwide phenomenons (PS1 and PS2 for Sony and NES, SNES, GameBoy and GBA, and DS for Nintendo). Microsoft still just has one system that sold 25 million world wide, and a modern one that while is currently leading this generation is selling far more slowly than the PS2 was at this time last generation. Microsoft is failing at attracting anyone who's not a hardcore male older gamer, is an utter failure in Japan, and has never done better than mediocre in Europe. Even in the US, the 360's best market, it's still getting outsold by the PS2.

Microsoft won't get the respect until they earn it. Really it's just the fanboys that see the significance of the 360 hitting 10 million. The analysts, and I have to agree with then, don't look at that aspect as very singificant at all. Right now what the 360 can't do is more significant than what it can. When it comes to brand name Microsoft is still third. For the price and game advantages the 360 has over the PS3 for it to only be doing slightly better than the PS3 world wide on a weekly basis is not exactly an amazing accomplishment.

 

 

Microsoft may not have yet earn respect but Sony is quickly losing its, wonder if one bleed into the other?

"Microsoft has all the cards they need in place to win against the PS3..."

All the Card to win agaisnt PS3 ? If u say.
I Just want to show u the ESSENTIAL card they still DONT have :

- Japanese Card ==> a card that allow u to be considered on the japanese market
Even with good game, the Xbox360 sales are very bad. The PS3 doesn't sell very well too but there is still no game on PS3 ...(opposed to good targetted game on Xbox360 EternalSonata and TrustyBell (1 week Xbox360 sales boost))

- European Card ==> same type of card but for the european market
European people get the PS3 AFTER all the others (too bad), the console is very expensive (600euros), the european PSN is late, game release is late, their still not a lot of good game (motorstorm/RFM at the launch ...)
AND, even with all these bad point, Xbox360 is not outselling PS3 ...
Rate PS3 = Rate Xbox360

- Stable Console ==> a card that make ur console UNbreakable even when the console is "on" (rofl)
Just consider the many thread that show that Xbox360 is not stable : I think the failure rate is about +30% that is huge

I m pretty sure the NA market will stay on M$ possession
But I don't see this happen on the Japanese market or the European market
and I even think that European people and Japanese people DONT LIKE MICROSOFT (even HATE them), it is why the console doesn't sell very well except in NA.
Of course, I don't have any numbers about this.
But Am I the only one to see that except on UK (USA's best friend, to not say USA's dog), PS3 sell better than Xbox360 in all the european countries ?
So strange ...

I still consider that a "brand name" is very important and the Microsoft brand name is nothing more than shit ... (just see Vista).
Just exchange the console brand name(Sony ==> Microsoft), and u will see PS3 outselling Xbox360 in NA, having extremely bad sales in europe and go down the 2000 unit weekly in japan ...

NOTE that all of this was in the context of the PS3/Xbox360 war, it is why I dont have mention the Wii that is making pretty well, everywhere.

ssj12 said: a.l.e.x59 said: ssj12 said: heres my predictions: - If uncharted sucks - PS3 will be in 3rd - if uncharted rules - PS3 will be in 1st - if killzone 2 doesnt match the trailer - Sony will be laughed at - if killzone 2 matches the trailer - everyone is who doubted it will have brown marks in their pants can I be an analyst now getting 6 figure salaries doing nothing but making things up lol. If Uncharted sucks, nothing will happen. If Uncharted rules, nothing will happen. Uncharted is a brand new franchise, so why all the hype on a franchise, nobody has played? It's like watching a movie you have never watched. You have no idea if it will be good or not. How does one game, decide the future of an entire console? It's all of the games, as a whole, that decides the future of an entire console. There are a handful of good Playstation 3 games, and none of them alone, never-the-less, together, are creating success for the Playstation 3. As for Killzone 2, Killzone 1 got okay reviews (around 70%), so don't expect much from Killzone 2. It's no Halo, it will simply exist as a typical FPS. And don't write "LOL," at the end of your post, because it's not a period, and it doesn't make sense. From what reviews and my fellow journalists at PSU has stated that game is amazing. New franchises have been known to be successful. Look at Tomb Raider and Halo. Remember all the original Xbox had was Halo and Halo 2 as its main selling point. It had a few other games but really everyone wanted Halo so dont feed me a load of crap that 1 game has never been the main selling point of a console before. I'm expecting KillZone 2 to be great because it has to. It would be huge negative PR due to how hyped the original trialer was.

 

I know a lot of people who bought the original Xbox for Shenmue, I was one of them. I didn't really start playing Halo until a few months before the 2nd one came out. I could never understand how people think The majority of the people that had an Xbox were only interested in Halo. 

 

libellule said: "Microsoft has all the cards they need in place to win against the PS3..." All the Card to win agaisnt PS3 ? If u say. I Just want to show u the ESSENTIAL card they still DONT have : - Japanese Card ==> a card that allow u to be considered on the japanese market Even with good game, the Xbox360 sales are very bad. The PS3 doesn't sell very well too but there is still no game on PS3 ...(opposed to good targetted game on Xbox360 EternalSonata and TrustyBell (1 week Xbox360 sales boost)) - European Card ==> same type of card but for the european market European people get the PS3 AFTER all the others (too bad), the console is very expensive (600euros), the european PSN is late, game release is late, their still not a lot of good game (motorstorm/RFM at the launch ...) AND, even with all these bad point, Xbox360 is not outselling PS3 ... Rate PS3 = Rate Xbox360 - Stable Console ==> a card that make ur console UNbreakable even when the console is "on" (rofl) Just consider the many thread that show that Xbox360 is not stable : I think the failure rate is about +30% that is huge I m pretty sure the NA market will stay on M$ possession But I don't see this happen on the Japanese market or the European market and I even think that European people and Japanese people DONT LIKE MICROSOFT (even HATE them), it is why the console doesn't sell very well except in NA. Of course, I don't have any numbers about this. But Am I the only one to see that except on UK (USA's best friend, to not say USA's dog), PS3 sell better than Xbox360 in all the european countries ? So strange ... I still consider that a "brand name" is very important and the Microsoft brand name is nothing more than shit ... (just see Vista). Just exchange the console brand name(Sony ==> Microsoft), and u will see PS3 outselling Xbox360 in NA, having extremely bad sales in europe and go down the 2000 unit weekly in japan ... NOTE that all of this was in the context of the PS3/Xbox360 war, it is why I dont have mention the Wii that is making pretty well, everywhere.

 Well the Japanese card is only working if it makes the combo of Japan + EU + USA > EU + USA. This could also be seen in the old fight GameCube vs Xbox. For the moment that isn't the case. xbox360 (Japan + USA)  weekly sales > PS3 (Japan + USA).

Of course this might change after price drops and so on. 

About my MGS4 comment in Japan:

I didn't say that MGS would move 750k systems (after all, like you said, MGS3 only moved ~700k units in Japan). But merely, such a title would help be a deciding factor in giving the PS3 a major, noticable boost to get it upto such sales numbers, in the same way Blue Dragon helped move alot of systems for the 360 in December last year there.

IMO, the PS3 is in the same boat as the 360 in Japan. Neither have great games, and an obstructive price. Once the PS3 has good games, it'll, on average, start moving more and more units, and late-year titles like MGS4 and others will help. Does that mean the PS3 will magically steal thunder from the Wii there? Absolutely not, but it might get a few PS2 owners enough reasons to finally take the plunge and make that Salary Man buy a PS3.

MGS4 could move 100-200k units by itself but again, thats ontop of whatever Nov-Dec would be without MGS4, which would be around 400-550k for 2 months.

Analysis business models: about the comment of the Wii's "revolutionary gaming" abilities with the Wiimote. I agree it has such that are evolutionary to the video game market. However, I think the issue is with the Wii just randomly scoring 100m+ sales this gen, is the fact of competition. If the Wii was facing an already-weak Sony (and not a falling giant), and a Microsoft that never made inroads vs. the PS3, it'd easily kill everything and stay ontop till a succuessor releases. However, this has to be the most heavily invested in generation (both innovation and cash wise), not only by Nintendo, but MS/Sony. The X360 isn't the newcomer Xbox trying to carve out a market. It's already been around, and increasing its total market share from last gen, and is doing a bit better. The PS3 isn't the gamecube, and has no 3rd party support whatsoever.

Remember the Blue Ocean Nintendo is going for. If indeed the Wii is tapping into the DS-Generational gamers, and is getting a new target audience, then it has swam into the Blue Ocean. The Blue Ocean is big, and the Wii is selling to it. However, this doesn't invalidate the fact that the Red ocean is very very large, and although the PS3/360 are fighting over it, there are still probably 100m consoles to be sold merely by former owners that'll probably purchase a console by one of those 2 companies. If that's truely the case, there is certainly alot to fight over. Not only this, it hinders the Wii's ability to achieve strategic dominance, as any system that can sell 40m+ units is certainly a threat to market dominance.

NJ5 said: Saying the PS3 is unlikely to finish in 3rd place is the same as saying that the 360 will likely finish in 3rd place, since we all know who will be in 1st place at the end... I would love to see some decent reasoning behind such a claim, since I consider Microsoft has all the cards they need in place to win against the PS3...

It had them, but looks like it's losing them. 360 had a good start, it had supply issues and after that the issues have been about quality. M$ also made a stupid statement about 360 being later updated with HD-DVD, right after launch, and it slowed down the sales. Elite was the latest stupidity they made, when looking at sales strategy, they should have had dropped prices from core and premium (although they had the price advantage already), to get more people to buy 360 and fix the quality issues. They had a good chance to make Sony play their game with their rules, but instead they are going to play Sonys game with Sonys rules. Problem with Micro$oft is that they don't have a clue about what they are doing with 360.

TheSource said: Sony has historically been slow out of the gates with their video game hardware systems, but their slow and steady pace has served them well in the long term.

One thing I hear a lot is that the PS2 started off slow just like the PS3. At this point in time in the PS2's release it had sold about equal to the PS3.

While this is true it kind of neglects two things:

1) The PS2 had not been through a holiday season

2) The PS2 was only out in Japan

The PS2 was hard to find in the U.S. and Japan until March from what I've heard from forums so it could not have sold any better than it did. Let's see how well the PS2 sold when it was available everywhere worldwide.

http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php?date=36951&sort=0

http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php?date=37316&sort=0

It sold 18 million. I don't call that a slow start. If you look from March 00 to March 01 it sold 10.61 million, this is despite the fact that 3/4s of the time it was only out in Japan and it was sold out in other countries at launch so the sales could not be any higher than they were. I say if the PS2 was released at exactly the same time as the PS3 and it was findable in stores at the same time the PS3 was then it would have sold 15-20 million in the first year. The PS3 has sold 3.5 million in its first 7 months.