Don't get me wrong, I think there are good analysts. I just think they work in private for hedge funds. The ones who have to make public statements are somewhat sketchy IMO.

Yeah. The best analyst is the one who does not announce anything early on, but says he was correct at the end of the race.

The two best predictions on the market I have ever seen came from two sources:

Source one was the old magazine Next Generation (in the USA).  In June of 1996 (right at the N64 Japanese launch), they predicted that despite the innovations to follow from Super Mario 64, PS1 would win the generation because it offered a better business model to consumers and developers.  They predicted that regardless of how great Super Mario 64 turned out, Japan would fall to Sony, and the rest of the world would follow.

Sony took Japan, then the world even as Mario 64 ended up among the top selling games of the generation.

I still have the magazine in my room..

Another take was in EGM on the Xbox vs. Gamecube.  EGM said that Xbox had a better launch lineup.  Fresh off Sega leaving the hardware market, EGM wondered if Gamecube would be Nintendo's last console would be Gamecube if it floundered in the face of deeper pocketed competition.

Although it was close, it looks like Xbox will end up beating GC by ~ 2 million units.

I think PS3 will come in second.

Xbox is attempting to try and cater to casual gamers now; Do you think a casual gamer is fine with having to buy multiple extended warranties and deal with a console that fails on regular basis?

I think 360's Achilles' heel is their terrible failure rate. MS isn't fixing the design flaw, and I think in the long run the masses will quickly get tired of faulty hardware.

On a related note, yet ultimately frivolous, I know a girl who was debating on a Wii and a 360 for her and her boyfriend. She really was excited about the 360 and the games coming for it, but ultimately the failure rates made her change her mind on purchasing the system.

Naw, the best analysts are able to make huge returns. They don't announce anything, they work quietly making lots of money for themselves and a few select clients. Unfortunately, those funds are out of reach for the majority of people.

I was being funny.

The Source FTW!

Funny, but sometimes true

The biggest problem with being an analyst isn't that they've been around for so long, it's that they need to make bold claims to get attention.

Look at the Source's posts: they're full of data, come to min/max conclusions about the optimal/minimal possibilities for each console, and effectively conclude that each console has a shot to do well in this generation, with the most likely winner being the Wii.

That's all true, but it's not going to grab any press releases. Saying something like "X Console will win," is the way to grab headlines -- spoken in absolutes, with little or no data to support it, because data is boring to most people. Better yet, saying "The PS3 will win" not only speaks in absolutes, but suggests such a radical turnaround of the current environment that people post and comment about it.

The problem isn't that analysts have been around for too long, it's that these particular analysts (especially Pachter) are shooting for attention, and you need to be extreme to get attention.

There's two ways to look at the winners and losers.

If you are talking total sales, I think it too soon to put firm money down on any one system. The real tell will, I think, be this holiday season, with some big franchises rolling out along with the first round of price cuts. It is possible (though I think unlikely) that Sony will reverse its fortunes, just as it is possible (and even less likely) that WiiFever will start to decline. About the only certainty is that the 360 will not sell in Japan, even if bundled with $400 cash.

On the other hand, if you look at market share, it seems very likely at this point that both Nintendo and Microsoft will make huge advances this generation, and Sony will drop back to the pack (if it wins total sales, it likely won't be by much). This can only be seen as a blow to Sony's long term strategy to corner the market, and that will make them, in this case, the losers.

It is all about Perspective.