I'm pretty confident it will significantly pass 20 Million. Possibly 21 Million.

over 20 million

16m

21mil...

I don't see how it couldn't at least sell 20 million with the year it is having so far, and it is only going to get better starting in a couple more months with the releases of some highly anticipated games. I am finally starting to not regret my purchase of a launch week PS3. Thank you Sony, I have another reason to boot up my PS3 besides just watching Blu-Ray movies.

Doing my standard calculations without a price drop it will sell less than or equal to about 19 million. The problem you run into is unlike last year Sony will probably not be able to drop the price like they did by $100 last year. The $399 price point helped the sales a bit last year, but if you add in everything we have seen and heard from Sony thus far this year a price drop is probably not in the cards. My best bet is a pack-in and without that kind of price drop like last year you may very well see sales at about what we saw last year. One also needs to take into account how long before Sony actually gets the new 80GB SKUs to the channel because if it is going to be Sept or late August they will lose some serious sales in the time being.

Also of note, they sold ~4.9 million last year at this time to the end of the year. Factoring this with no price drop unlike last year with shortages I stick to about ~19 million sold by year end.

21-22 million

*looks at sig*

Though I was a bit conservative at the beginning of the year, and looking at figures now, I probably lowballed the ps3 by 1-2 million.

I'd hope for 20m, the 80GB is a nice step to help with this. Now if they announced a price drop at TGS even buy £25 ($50), to come into effect in November, that would make a difference. (unlikely i know).

I originally stated at the start of the year that the PS3 would sell around 11m units this year making a total of 19.5m worldwide by the end of this year.  So far, the PS3 has sold around 5m units since the start of the year, so in short, the sales are on track to meet my original guess.

Although it could very easily be significantly more.

As you will see with my predictions below (in sig), the 360 will have 23.3m units worldwide in total.  They had sold 16m by the end of last year and have sold now 4m this year so far.  I may have been slightly off, but I certainly do feel that sales of the 360 will slow down later in the year.

In short, the PS3 will IMHO sell at least 19.5m units worldwide in total by the end of this year, but don't be surprised to see this number creeping up to 21-22m, but I now think that 360 numbers will be closer to 25m