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Forums - Sales Discussion - I believe that one of the "HD twins" are going to crash and burn in sales

dbot said:
@Deeds - PS3 and 360 fans do not view them as the same. Just read any thread on this site. The fact that they both offer HD gaming just means they are competing in the same market. This market is growing, not shrinking as you said. HDTVs have a 30% market penetration in the US and it is increasing quickly. All three systems have weaknesses that they need to overcome but none are in jeopardy of failing.

 

 Not this argument again.  When are people going to get that just because someone buys a HDTV it does not mean they are going to go out and buy a HD console?  I really don't understand where this logic comes from.  In fact most people are simply just buying fancy looking flat screens but no one makes flat screens that are not HD anymore.  So if you upgrade yout TV you get HD whether or not you are interested in HD or even know what it is.



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Deeds said:
ZenfoldorVGI said:
Aj_habfan said:
I don't think it will be that soon, but I agree that we should see some slowing down for them - there is no way the market will go on for another 5 years of 360/PS3 sales as they are.

If I had to put my money on one it would be the 360, because PS3 has classic IP's it can rely on to bring more life from the PS2 audience, while MS may run out of luck with their new IP's.

 

I think MS is going to attempt to steal some Wii audience, in an attempt to stay competitive with the PS3 in sales. I shall dub it Marshall's Folly and the internet shall break with the laughter of a million Nintendo fanboys.

That's not to say that the PS3 is gonna be a record-breaking console either, quite to the contrary, depending on the persepctive from which you view it, the PS3 is a much larger failure than any console to come before it, barring the obvious ones like the Virtual Boy. Under "Drop the ball" in the dictionary, there should be a large picture of the PS3, with a caption of a a Harrison quote, "The touch screen is a gimmick."

I didn't say that the PS3 is going to break any records and I agree that it is a big failure compared to where Sony was last generation, BUT, I dont think that the PS3 is going to collapse in sales anytime soon.

 

 

How is being less than a million units behind the PS2 at the same time from launch a failure?  If anything it proves that the PS3 is doing just fine, if not just a little bit behind the PS2.  Did you expect it to sell 110 millions unit the first year?

 

 

 

 



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Onimusha12 said:
If either the 360 or Ps3 dies, HD gaming dies, the majority of HD games can only turn a profit by being put on both consoles.

Even then, its the appeal of being able to put your game on two consoles that makes HD development so appealing. If you have just one HD console vs the Wii, the Wii will dominate even more.

The 360 and PS3 are not only redundant, but dependent on eachother.

That's a very good point. I think that even if the 360 userbase dwindles and the system drops in popularity, the userbase will still be devoted enough for software sales to stay high (different to a Sega console, for example).

But as Onimusha said, the only reason the HD consoles get as many games as they do is because developers are guaranteed to get enough profit from both consoles to make back their money even if the game doesn't sell all that well. If the 360 or PS3 dropped in sales to the point of a "crash and burn," third parties would ditch the surviving console and both would die.



 

 

 

 

@Zenfoldor said,

"Note: @PS3 fanboys, "...but...but...but Zenfoldor, why's didja pick out PS3 fanboys....?" Well, son, in this case, I chose PS3 fanboys because I was drawing an imaginary line between Montanta's assertion that the 360 ain't gonna make a magical fantasy comeback and own the PS3, to the fact that it is much, much, much, much, much, muuuuuuuuuuch, much, much, much, muchmuchmuchmuchmuch, less likely that the PS3 could make a magical comeback and beat the Wii, which isn't a common assertion of 360 or Wii fanboys, but it is of....you guessed it. That's why you were singled out in this case. I'm sorry."

 

==> Actually, most of the "PS3fanboys" as you call them (let's put everybody supporting PS3 inside) :

- dont consider the PS3 will come back to the 1st place since most of them have releazed that no one can beat the Wii. 

- dont put much in interest in the Wii since they would prefer play SO4/RedAlert3, that are Xbox360 exclusive, more than the next  Animal Crossing.
This is why such thread are created again and again and again  : PS3fans care about PS3-360 war, not about PS3-Wii war.

That also explains why you can find "HD" in the title : the OP is talking about PS3 vs Xbox360 only.

It is also why some "Wii fans" (like you) just love to bring (back) the Wii in the competition.

I guess some may be frustrated by the "no-online hype" generated by the console (line-up) despite the AMAZING hardware/software sales.



Time to Work !

tuoyo said:
dbot said:
@Deeds - PS3 and 360 fans do not view them as the same. Just read any thread on this site. The fact that they both offer HD gaming just means they are competing in the same market. This market is growing, not shrinking as you said. HDTVs have a 30% market penetration in the US and it is increasing quickly. All three systems have weaknesses that they need to overcome but none are in jeopardy of failing.

 

 Not this argument again.  When are people going to get that just because someone buys a HDTV it does not mean they are going to go out and buy a HD console?  I really don't understand where this logic comes from.  In fact most people are simply just buying fancy looking flat screens but no one makes flat screens that are not HD anymore.  So if you upgrade yout TV you get HD whether or not you are interested in HD or even know what it is.

I was responding to his argument that the HD gaming market was shrinking.  Clearly this is not the case.  Also, it is obvious that the HD gaming market is dependent upon the market penetration of HD displays.  It is undeniable that HD is the future of television.  In the US all over the air broadcasts will be in HD beginning Feb. 2009. 

 



Thanks for the input, Jeff.

 

 

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MontanaHatchet said:
Onimusha12 said:
If either the 360 or Ps3 dies, HD gaming dies, the majority of HD games can only turn a profit by being put on both consoles.

Even then, its the appeal of being able to put your game on two consoles that makes HD development so appealing. If you have just one HD console vs the Wii, the Wii will dominate even more.

The 360 and PS3 are not only redundant, but dependent on eachother.

That's a very good point. I think that even if the 360 userbase dwindles and the system drops in popularity, the userbase will still be devoted enough for software sales to stay high (different to a Sega console, for example).

But as Onimusha said, the only reason the HD consoles get as many games as they do is because developers are guaranteed to get enough profit from both consoles to make back their money even if the game doesn't sell all that well. If the 360 or PS3 dropped in sales to the point of a "crash and burn," third parties would ditch the surviving console and both would die.

 

It will not happen.

I dont see how PS3 or Xbox360 would really "die" ...

Even if this happens (PS3 OR Xbox360 WW harware weekly sales below 10k) people will still buy games for their console that will allow publishers/developpers  to continue to make lot of money on the PS3 AND Xbox360.



Time to Work !

A system like ps3 that sells so well with a price of 399$ wont die so quickly.When costs come down and ps3 meets with its true price (something between 200-300) will sell like hot cakes. XBOX360 has no luck in Europe against ps3,since it is already half the price of ps3 ,and well in japan it never had any luck.So the remaining market that xbox360 will sell and it sells will be America,and i dont think sales will be so big to save it hold against ps3....only time will tell of course



Deeds said:

This is just a theory, but I believe that one of the "HD twins" are going to die off very quickly. Both consoles are redundant and are being marketed to the same shrinking audience, so a crash in one of them is coming. The Wii has locked up the "expanded audience" so tightly that Microsoft and Sony can't touch them, and the Nintendo core audience for the most part is disinterested in the HD twins.

I predict that the HD twin that will die will be the Xbox 360 mainly because of RROD. Sony at least has a huge brand awareness remaining due to their domination of the previous generation, so the possibility that the PS3 will die off quickly is unlikely IMO (but it can happen). Only time will tell if I'm right.

nice little fanboy post. and your words are proof that you are not a gamer you are just a fanboy.

ps360 games are better than wii games, apart from a small handfull of titles that are worth buying on wii. wii has nothing on ps360 in terms of games. all of the biggest games will be on ps360.

if wii is selling more consoles due to a family/child mainly audience, that doesnt make the console better or have better game or have better online. ask people who have had great gametime on games like cod4 online, this level of gaming cannot be achieved on wii and never wii do.

ps360 will not drop off the map!

i

 



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i dont think so becasue there both still being marketed



Wow, such bad analysis. Let's take our gaming hats off, and just look at this from a sales perspective.

The 360 and the PS3 cater to the same audience. The 360+PS3 sales are higher then the PS2+x-box sales. This indicates that the market is not "shrinking", the 360 is just taking a lot more of the growing market from the PS3 then x-box did from the PS2.

Both consoles are up in sales this year, the PS3 is up more, but the 360 is still selling more this year then it did last. That means they are growing, not dying off.

Both the above facts means they are in a market that can sustain multiple consoles. Both will continue to sell, and both will do well.

The Wii so far, is either 1, a non factor as sales are better this gen for the HD consoles they there collective sales last gen, or 2, the market has grown a lot, and only a little of it is going to HD consoles because of the Wii. Either way, all consoles are succeeding.

The only thing I see being interesting going forward, is the impact the Wii will have when the HD consoles drop in price to a point where casual game players would buy it. Most of the PS2 sales came at under $200. This market might be gone due to the Wii. Will will see when the HD consoles get to that price point.