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famousringo on 03 July 2008
cookingyourmama said:

I posted this in another thread not so long ago:

 

Their is a big difference between vgchartz american numbers and npd's for the wii and 360 but not for the ps3. Now i'm not saying who is right and who is wrong i'm just stating the facts that the two sets of numbers are very different.

As of the end of may 2008 npd total ltd's are this:

PS3 - 4,450,000
Wii - 10,180,000
360 - 10,270,000

When you add in canada's numbers which is a combination of reported numbers and % estimates based on previous american numbers compared to the same month of canadian numbers you get:

PS3 - 4,911,806
Wii - 11,121,396
360 - 11,111,757

Now comparing that to vgchartz numbers for the same time you get:

npd+canada  4,911,806 - vgc  4,943,560 - +31,754
npd+canada 11,121,396 - vgc 11,891,587 - +770,191
npd+canada 11,111,757 - vgc 11,599,497 - +487,740

The ps3 numbers are almost identical with vgchartz being +31,754 higher

The wii ltd number is vastly above npd's ltd number at +770,191 higher. Anybody who thinks being over three quaters of a million isn't a significantly higher number needs their head checked.

The 360's number is again well above npd's ltd number at +487,740 higher. That's almost half a million.

Now if all 3 consoles were roughly the same when it came to being higher or lower to npd's numbers i wouldn't say anything but the fact their is such a huge difference is something that can't be ignored.

I would say that somebody who thinks that two estimates disagreeing by less than 7% is significant has unrealistic expectations.

Also, keep in mind that VGChartz includes the rest of the hemisphere in their "America" numbers.



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NJ5 on 03 July 2008

Adding all the NPD numbers will probably give you some error due to adjustments that you don't get.

That is, unless each of the figures they release already carries the adjustment for previous errors... The problem with NPD data is that (as far as I know) none of those things is transparent.

In other words... either the totals will be wrong, or individual months will be wrong (or both).

 



My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957

ymeaga1n on 03 July 2008
Psycho1984 said:
kowenicki said:

Well for a start NPD is only America.

 

NPD is only USA, not America.  The continent doesn't belong to the US citizens ;)  I'M from Canada and I'm as American as you are:D  In fact, in french, US citizen should be called "États-Uniens"....................it's really ugly, but it is the good name :D


Have you ever heard a US citizen say that the continent belongs to them? If not, then please do us all a favor and shut your mouth with your comments against us




mike_intellivision on 03 July 2008

NJ5 makes a great point. We all see when VGC makes a change ... because those whose console of choice saw its sales decreased/not increased complain.

But we NEVER see what adjustments might be made to NPD numbers. And remember that NPD no longer gets Wal-Mart or Toys R Us numbers, so its estimates could be nothing more than guesstimates.

Mike from Morgantown



      


I am Mario.


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cookingyourmama on 03 July 2008
ZenfoldorVGI said:
cookingyourmama said:

I posted this in another thread not so long ago:

 

Their is a big difference between vgchartz american numbers and npd's for the wii and 360 but not for the ps3. Now i'm not saying who is right and who is wrong i'm just stating the facts that the two sets of numbers are very different.

As of the end of may 2008 npd total ltd's are this:

PS3 - 4,450,000
Wii - 10,180,000
360 - 10,270,000

When you add in canada's numbers which is a combination of reported numbers and % estimates based on previous american numbers compared to the same month of canadian numbers you get:

PS3 - 4,911,806
Wii - 11,121,396
360 - 11,111,757

Now comparing that to vgchartz numbers for the same time you get:

npd+canada 4,911,806 - vgc 4,943,560 - +31,754
npd+canada 11,121,396 - vgc 11,891,587 - +770,191
npd+canada 11,111,757 - vgc 11,599,497 - +487,740

The ps3 numbers are almost identical with vgchartz being +31,754 higher

The wii ltd number is vastly above npd's ltd number at +770,191 higher. Anybody who thinks being over three quaters of a million isn't a significantly higher number needs their head checked.

The 360's number is again well above npd's ltd number at +487,740 higher. That's almost half a million.

Now if all 3 consoles were roughly the same when it came to being higher or lower to npd's numbers i wouldn't say anything but the fact their is such a huge difference is something that can't be ignored.

1. Yeah, I remember you trying to back up the damage controllers in the MGS4 topic.

2. When we mentioned two things that completely contradicted what you said, you had no explaination.

 

A. Those numbers don't include all of the "Americas", VGChartz does, where the PS3 sales narn, and the Wii is hotcakes.

B. NPD numbers don't match up with shipped figures worldwide, VGChartz does, when you extrapolate them, that is.

 

3. Quite recently, VGChartz reported that PSP sold more in Japan than the Wii, contradicting Famitsu. I wonder which side you woulda chose on that argument, heh.

 

4. Overally, VGChartz hardware numbers are accurate. Particularly when you match them with shipped figures. If one or two individual regions are off by a couple of percentage points, we're still in the margin for error, and the PS3 is still getting destroyed by the Wii in America, and that won't change for a while, or ever.

Whining and damage control over MGS4 numbers aside, it's about time everyone lost some respect for NPD. Their numbers aren't official either.

 

1. Their was no damage control to be made in the mgs4 thread, just trolls bashing an AAA game (that has sold several million in software and atleast 200,000 in hardware) because it was released on a console they don't like .

2. Their was no conclusive proof that showed the numbers i posted were wrong, it's was just a bunch of vague guesses with nothing to back them up so how can i disprove what is not proven in the first place?

a. Please post conclusive proof that in the rest of america (a.k.a. not usa or canada) that both the wii and xbox360 sell significantly more consoles than the ps3 does, or is that just wishfull thinking by you and you pulled it out of your a**?

b. Automatically saying one consoles sales = it's shipped figure when you don't know how many consoles are in transit and how many are sat on store shelves is incredibly dumb and ignorant. The wii isn't sold out in europe or japan so assuming all the other parts that make up america apart from the usa and canada are infact sold out is dumb.

3. If their was even the slightest doubt that you are acting like a massive fanboy and anything you say should be laughed at and ignored then that last shred of hope has been taken away by your stupid statement right their.

4. I've already shown why that logic is flawed and you're coming out with yet more fanboy statements as well, the only 'damage control' i see right now is from you.



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Psycho1984 on 03 July 2008
ymeaga1n said:
Psycho1984 said:
kowenicki said:

Well for a start NPD is only America.

 

NPD is only USA, not America.  The continent doesn't belong to the US citizens ;)  I'M from Canada and I'm as American as you are:D  In fact, in french, US citizen should be called "États-Uniens"....................it's really ugly, but it is the good name :D


Have you ever heard a US citizen say that the continent belongs to them? If not, then please do us all a favor and shut your mouth with your comments against us

 

Angry? :D  I was not being agressive I think with this comment, I was talking of the use around the world of "American"  to name US citizens.  Sorry if you take it so hard, I was juste saying the obvious:  Americans are not the only ones on the American continent, that's all ;)



HappySqurriel on 03 July 2008

One thing to consider that I see few people ever mention is how the sales numbers tend to be estimated ...

Most statistics people learned in school use the assumption that the data set they collected is a perfectly random sample, and thus the bias or error in their dataset is based on the probability of (randomly) having a disproportionate number of responses in your dataset; this is the main reason why the assumption is that your dataset becomes more accurate as your sample size improves. As a demonstration, the probablility flipping a coin 4 times and getting heads 3 out of 4 times is fairly good, at the same time the probability of flipping a coin 400 times and getting heads 300 of the 400 times is not very good.

When you're dealing with a statistic like VGChartz and NPD are, you're forced to make the assumption that your data set is not a perfectly random sample and you will be forced to compensate for the bias in your numbers. Consider for a moment that the type of person who buys their games and consoles at Best-Buy/futureshop is quite a bit different from the type of person who buys their games at Gamestop/EBGames or Walmart.

Now ... Being that a large portion of both VGChartz and NPD's numbers are based on projections (which are, essentially, based on assumptions) it is quite possible that either of the numbers can be off. If NPD (for example) underestimates the sales of the Wii at Walmart, and VGChartz (for example) overestimates the sales of the Wii at Walmart, both numbers can be off by quite a bit and they (certainly) wouldn't match up.



NJ5 on 03 July 2008
HappySqurriel said:

One thing to consider that I see few people ever mention is how the sales numbers tend to be estimated ...

Most statistics people learned in school use the assumption that the data set they collected is a perfectly random sample, and thus the bias or error in their dataset is based on the probability of (randomly) having a disproportionate number of responses in your dataset; this is the main reason why the assumption is that your dataset becomes more accurate as your sample size improves. As a demonstration, the probablility flipping a coin 4 times and getting heads 3 out of 4 times is fairly good, at the same time the probability of flipping a coin 400 times and getting heads 300 of the 400 times is not very good.

When you're dealing with a statistic like VGChartz and NPD are, you're forced to make the assumption that your data set is not a perfectly random sample and you will be forced to compensate for the bias in your numbers. Consider for a moment that the type of person who buys their games and consoles at Best-Buy/futureshop is quite a bit different from the type of person who buys their games at Gamestop/EBGames or Walmart.

Now ... Being that a large portion of both VGChartz and NPD's numbers are based on projections (which are, essentially, based on assumptions) it is quite possible that either of the numbers can be off. If NPD (for example) underestimates the sales of the Wii at Walmart, and VGChartz (for example) overestimates the sales of the Wii at Walmart, both numbers can be off by quite a bit and they (certainly) wouldn't match up.

That is probably what ioi means by "retailer bias" in his methodology page... IMO, it must be one of the hardest problems in sales tracking. Another one is that stores often do promotions which will significantly alter consumers' behavior, screwing up assumptions about retailer bias.

 



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Kasz216 on 03 July 2008

You couldn't add them up because it's almost definite that NPD offers corrections to it's paying customers. Adding it all up would likely get you a very different total then the NPD real figures.



Kasz216 on 03 July 2008

PS3 launched the 20 gig PS3 at like $950 in Mexico right?

I mean... not conclusive i guess... but i mean... come on.

Seriously, the PS3 comes with a financing plan in mexico.

Anyone in northern mexico who wants a PS3 is just going to cross the border for one.

360 is the cheapest system in Mexico... and has been for a while to my knowledge.