Steven -

I put 99.5% for PGR4 merely because the end of the world could happen, or VGC could revise their numbers.

Need larger paragraph break ...

I am really feel sad for racing game because I am partial to them. The sole reason of getting console gaming was to play race cars game on a big TV. I am rather surprise at PGR4 numbers ... but majority of that probably came from Europe.

Burnout Paradise might get a bump when they add Cagney expansion. It's a rather fun game.

Pretty good shakedown. I hope The Orange Box can creep up there as well since it's currently sitting at around 750k LTD.

Edit: I think for a thread like this it would be cool to have semi-annual installments to track the progress and accuracy of predictions.

I think that BF: Bad Company will sell much more than 1.1M LTD...to me it could attract a lot of COD4 fans. I'd say 2M LTD, with 400k+ 1st week

Very good article stickball.  I edited this post because I didn't see Gears.  I think it should of been bolded.  Or maybe I'm just blind.

Gears is there at 3m first week and 8m LTD.

I think BF:BC can do much more than 1.1m, but I'm being conservative due to the fact that BF2 wasn't that huge. BF:BC is already #4 on the MGC charts, and it's very rare that a game can crack that list without being huge. BF2 does stand a good chance at 2m, but I want to be cautious.

most those look fairly accurate

Wow, The Simpsons Game sold quite well on 360. I think Lego Indy will cruise it's way past a million, and I really think Burnout will eventually make its way past the mark.

I really would like to see NG2 and LO like million sellers.

How do you come up with the probability to be a million seller thing? Just curious.