I still believe it'll be late July or early August, because I think recent shipments of Wii's were smaller than they could be, and with the upcoming release of Dragon Quest Swords in Japan, I expect that Hardware numbers over there will go up while in the other regions, the numbers should remain steady at least.

on the other hand, 360 seems to be stuck. If NPD is correct, they still haven't reached the 10m they claimed at the beginning of this year.

Exactly where/why would Nintendo be holding back shipments? Until MP3, SMG or SSBB come out there are very few games or reasons Nintendo would be holding systems back.

Even with DQS, I dont see the Wii getting more than a 30k bump for the week.

I don't think that they are holding back shipments, but it was shown over the last weeks that supply is not really steady, hardware numbers have gone up and down all the time and I think we had a higher period around the release of Super Paper Mario/Golden Week, but since then, we were in a lower period of wii supply. With Mario Party being released in two regions soon and Dragon Quest in Japan, there are reasons to try to get more units to stores.
I believe that the bumps are mostly due to production and to stocking up for Christmas; maybe Nintendo holds back some more units during weeks without software releases.

Turn that line of thinking on its head.  With the "big three" games, demand may be even higher than it is today.  They want to ensure an adequate stockpile so that when those games are released, they can increase shipments without completely depeleting themselves before the holiday season.

That's says alot.

Personally, i would not be surprised if the nintendo is holding back shipments of the wii. I remember a number of articles stating that the Wii would be producing 1.5 mln units a month by april. And yet i don't see that amount being sold. I think nintendo has to start saving up for the christmas holidays if it wants to hold back a christmas takeover by Xbox and PS3. I really doubt that the Wii won't have a X mas spike due to lack of supply.

But honestly, this Halo 3 must be mind blowing. Educate me. 1 game is gonna increase world wide weekly sales by over 130,000 units a weeks for the rest of the year because 1 game has been released. (And that with a minimal increase in Japan.) Thats Triple its current sales. Don't get me wrong, i have an xbox and i love it to bits. But i would really be surprised if it starts outselling the wii on a continous basis around the world because Halo 3 has been released. Especially when he Xbox already has so many great games which have enticed gamers to the system already. Xbox arguagble has the better game portfolio already but iit is significantly outsold by the Wii.