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Forums - Gaming Discussion - What Qualifies a Console as a Success?

I was thinking about how the 360 could reach 30 million+ units without ever selling a million in Japan...which made me wonder... What level of sales are Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony hoping to reach with their consoles (realistically)? I think Nintendo wants to be 1st in all three markets, but would gladly take 2nd place in two, with a strong lead in one. Sony wants to be 1st as well, but I don't think they can realistically catch up to Nintendo and Microsoft, although second is still feasible because Microsoft has no presence (in terms of significant sales) in Japan. Microsoft wants to be 1st in all three, but knows it will be third in Japan. The company hopes its presence in the West carries it to the top despite Japan... In which case... if all consoles became a "Success", this is how it would look realistically. Japan Americas Rest of the World Nintendo Microsoft Microsoft Sony Nintendo Nintendo Microsoft Sony Sony This would be the best a comrpomise each manufacturer could like (say by 2009). If the split went 60-25-15 (percent market share), in each region sales would look like this: Japan Americas Other regions Wii 16 million Microsoft 20 mil Microsoft 15 mill PS3 6.75 mill Nintendo 8.25 Nintendo 6.25 mill 360 4 million Sony 5 million Sony 3.75 mill Microsoft = 39 million Nintendo = 30.5 million Sony = 15.5 million But, it will likely look more like this (percentage): Japan 73-21-6 Americas 50-36-14 Others 58-27-15 Japan (25 million consoles sold - last gen - 20 mil PS2, 4.5 mill GC, .5 xbox) N.A. (72 million consoles sold - last gen 43.5 mill PS2, 16 mill Xbox, 12.5 GC) Others...(roughly 45 million consoles sold to arrive at LTD PS2,GC,XB numbers) In which case...assuming similar sales it would break down like this using above order per territory: Japan Wii 18.25 million PS3 5.25 million 360 1.5 million (very generous here. I actually think 360 sales end up right about 1 mill) Americas 360 36 million Wii 25.92 million PS3 10.08 million Others 360 26.1 million Wii 12.15 million PS3 6.75 million Worldwide totals: PS3 - 22.08 million Wii - 56.32 million 360 - 63.6 million However, when taking into account people who own two-three consoles, I see the user base for owning one console like this: Wii - 35 million 360 - 40 million PS3 - 10 million This is meant to assume that the first console bought is the console of choice. In other words, although 360 will have the largest base, it will also have the most people who own a Wii, PS3 or both. I believe many who own a Wii in the west will buy or already own a 360. Not many Wii gamers will buy a PS3 however, unless they have all three consoles. Mnay PS3 owners will buy a 360 for games like Halo and better online play. PS3 owners also are more likely to buy a Wii then Wii owners are to buy a PS3. With this notion of 'exclusive' user base in mind, it will become difficult for developers to produce exclusives on the PS3 that sell well enough to offset the cost of development. This is how I see things going if both Nintendo and Microsoft are 'successful'. However, I do not expect the market to stay as it is. Which is why I don't think my above predictions will hold up. Adjusting for advances in tech, new game genres, online, trends, and price cuts I think it ends up like this: Wii Japan (15 million) Americas (15 miilion) Elsewhere (15 million) PS3 Japan (5 million) Americas (7 million) Elsewhere (8 million) 360 Japan (1 million) Americas (23 million) Elsewhere (12 million) This represents a huge dropoff in hardware sales (30 million or so), which I feel will be made up by the nex gen portables from Nintendo and Sony, the DS, PSP, PC's, and ever advancing phone formats.



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Some good theories. Where exactly did you pull specific numbers like 25.92 mil though? just like giving yourself an exact number for fun's sake?



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I got the numbers like this: GC, XBOX and PS2 sold 72 million consoles in the Americas. Then I said the breakdown of percentages in the Americas would be 50% to 36% to 14% Wii will have 36 percent, because it is 2nd in hardware and should remain so... .36 x 72 million = 25.92 million, on the assumption that 72 million consoles are sold in the Americas this gen (PS3, Wii, 360) But, after that, I knocked the numbers down because I think there will be increased competition later from other companies and formats in gaming...



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

I have a very different thinking actually. As a disclaimer, I'm from Europe, and I'm a casual gamer, who stopped playing games at end of the PS1 era (last game was FFIX IIRC), and was lured back to gaming at the end of the Gamecube era. I don't think Nintendo want to be 1st. I rather think that Nintendo wants to sell a decent number of consoles. By decent, I mean in the 40+ M. They were on a downward spiral until then, and I think they want to stop that and sell decently. They already are the most profitable in the console business, so that's not a goal. Being profitable is a requirement they always achieved before. I don't think MS wants to be 1st either. But I think they want to be ahead of Sony at all costs in every market, because the multimedia offering of Sony is threatening their Windows business. They're bleeding money for that to this date. I think it's in the 6+ billions loss for now. As for Sony, I'm sure they want to stay number one in all three markets. You think Sony has no chance to catch up to the others, but I can't be so sure. PS3 is not released in every market yet, has still to have a price cut (XB360 already had big rebates for christmas, which is the same), and have not its blockbuster titles released on it yet. I'm talking of FFXIII, MGS4, GT5. You're also assuming a lot about europeans. They've not the same tastes as UK or the USA. I highly doubt the demographic is appealed to FPS and other shooters. I say this because it seems like this is the main demographic of people playing on XB360 : those who love shooters and racers (and lots of polygons with lots of effects). Most game genres are represented on playstation though. So why do you think people are more likely to own a XB360 in Europe ? Surely not for FPS. As for better online play, I really don't see what's going to be better on XB360. Some of the features work in the USA, with a huge population of english speaking people. But I simply don't see sth like for example, communicating with others, working so well in Europe, where lots of people just don't speak the same language. Most people playing online on computers in Europe basically have at least good english speaking basis. And this demographic is already far from the typical console player or even the younger (or older) ones. BTW, I'm a Wii owner, and I plan on buying a PS3. But of course, not until a price cut and I've got at least 3 games I want on it. But it's likely I'll reach the 3 games on PS3, but completely unlikely on XB360. And both consoles are at such high prices, that I have to think twice before buying one of them. And yet, I could buy both if I wanted, but there's just no point. I estimate demographics by behaviour. To make it simple (I know these are biased, they're my opinion) : - graphics whore : they will constantly argue about their console having better graphics, will talk mostly about graphics, and won't ever even consider buying the other similar console, even if it has games they want. They will always go for what they perceive as the best console graphics wise. They will review if a game is bad or good on a screenshot alone. A corollary is that they'll buy mostly AAA games. - casual gamer : they will buy the console they perceive as the best suited for them, based on commercials, demos, sales people, .... Same for games. A game will last them 6+ months. - gamer : they will buy the consoles that has the games they want. They will read reviews of games and try to test them to see if they're to their taste or not. A game will last them 1+ month. - hardcore gamer : like the gamer, but they will also finish several games a month. I put the guy with 2+ consoles in the gamer or hardcore gamer crowd for this generation. With the previous generation, you could be a gamer and buy 2+ consoles. With this gen, it's way harder, given the prices, except if you go for the Wii. Finally, I still think today, that consoles are released too closely from each other. I think 6 years is a good lifetime, and it seems to me 7 years is even better. I see that the consoles features are maxed out after 4 years of developing for them. All of this is caused by these wars. I see Nintendo has always been behind in releases, perhaps to reach this 6 years lifetime. Anyway, they sure enough didn't follow the mad race of others to have the biggest console. Perhaps that's why they're the only ones that are the most profitable. We'll see if their vision pays off. The problem as I see it, is that console gaming, already having bad reputation, is becoming more and more expensive, and the console releases are more and more close to each other. To me, the fact that PS2 is still outselling evey home console in 2006 is telling that people already can't and won't follow the trend.



ookaze - A couple things. One I assumed the 360 would lead in Europe because A) it was released first and B) because it is doing well in the UK, the largest European videogame market. Second, the winner of the 'legacy' console generation tends to sell amazing amounts of software and decent amounts of hardware for about a year after the release of the next console in the previously dominant brand. In other words: NES was still selling in 92' (SNES 91') SNES was selling in mid 96'- mid 97' (N64 96') PS1 was selling in 01' (PS2 00') PS2 is selling in 07' (PS3 06') It goes something like this NES outsold the SNES in 92' SNES outsold the N64 in 96' PS1 outsold PS2 in 00' PS2 may outsell PS3 in 06'-07' Next, I know Sony has yet to release outside the Americas and Japan, but I don't expect them to launch with more then 800,000 for 'other regions'. Although this will be a significant one time bump in marketshare, I feel pretty saying Microsoft can sell 400,000-750,000 (20-50k Japan, 200-400k NA, 180-300k other) consoles in an oridnary month, and that Nintendo can sell 500,000-1 million per month (200-450k Japan, 150-300k NA, 100-250k Other) in an ordinary month. Sony I think will arrive at like 100-250k in NA, 50-150k Japan, 150-250k in the Other markets for an ordinary month (350-650k). With a price drop in Japan and North America, Sony could probably sell another 200k per month. A 360 price drop would be huge in America, because it is almost at mass market. An American 360 price drop would add like 200k sales per month I think.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

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What Qaulifies a Console as a Success? There really is no clear answer to this question; or is there? All sales benchmarks have been set by Sony with the PS1 and PS2. Sega's Dreamcast sold record ammounts on launch day (North America), had a mascot (Sonic) an incredible game lineup (especially the 2k sports brand) and online play built in. It came out in between the Nintendo 64 - Gamecube Era, with the Sony PS1 dominating and the Sony PS2 launching just a year after. We need not go into launch numbers because they don't tell the whole story and are quite deceptive. The only logical thing to do is benchmark the successors to all three systems. Somehow that just doesn't seem right this time around; because Nintendo is outselling both Sony and Microsoft. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but all the bad publicity in the world isn't enough to stave off the success of the Playstation Brand. If it comes down in price; Success is inevitable. Price is definitley the main factor in Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft sales. First time gamers, old school gamers, new gamers and consumers have spoken loud and clear; the Nintendo Wii is their choice hands down. Even hardcore gamers (Sony and Microsofts targeted audience) spoke loud and clear by purchasing the Wii/PS3 or Wii/360. The PS3 - 360 combo is just too expensive for the aforementioned minus the handful of hardcore gamers that can and will buy 2 or all three systems as well as having the latest high spec gaming pc on the market. What we are left with is price and franchises (Nintendo's Mario etc...) and Sony/Microsoft simply cannot compete this go around. They will battle for 2nd and 3rd place in all markets. or................................