I was thinking about how the 360 could reach 30 million+ units without ever selling a million in Japan...which made me wonder... What level of sales are Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony hoping to reach with their consoles (realistically)? I think Nintendo wants to be 1st in all three markets, but would gladly take 2nd place in two, with a strong lead in one. Sony wants to be 1st as well, but I don't think they can realistically catch up to Nintendo and Microsoft, although second is still feasible because Microsoft has no presence (in terms of significant sales) in Japan. Microsoft wants to be 1st in all three, but knows it will be third in Japan. The company hopes its presence in the West carries it to the top despite Japan... In which case... if all consoles became a "Success", this is how it would look realistically. Japan Americas Rest of the World Nintendo Microsoft Microsoft Sony Nintendo Nintendo Microsoft Sony Sony This would be the best a comrpomise each manufacturer could like (say by 2009). If the split went 60-25-15 (percent market share), in each region sales would look like this: Japan Americas Other regions Wii 16 million Microsoft 20 mil Microsoft 15 mill PS3 6.75 mill Nintendo 8.25 Nintendo 6.25 mill 360 4 million Sony 5 million Sony 3.75 mill Microsoft = 39 million Nintendo = 30.5 million Sony = 15.5 million But, it will likely look more like this (percentage): Japan 73-21-6 Americas 50-36-14 Others 58-27-15 Japan (25 million consoles sold - last gen - 20 mil PS2, 4.5 mill GC, .5 xbox) N.A. (72 million consoles sold - last gen 43.5 mill PS2, 16 mill Xbox, 12.5 GC) Others...(roughly 45 million consoles sold to arrive at LTD PS2,GC,XB numbers) In which case...assuming similar sales it would break down like this using above order per territory: Japan Wii 18.25 million PS3 5.25 million 360 1.5 million (very generous here. I actually think 360 sales end up right about 1 mill) Americas 360 36 million Wii 25.92 million PS3 10.08 million Others 360 26.1 million Wii 12.15 million PS3 6.75 million Worldwide totals: PS3 - 22.08 million Wii - 56.32 million 360 - 63.6 million However, when taking into account people who own two-three consoles, I see the user base for owning one console like this: Wii - 35 million 360 - 40 million PS3 - 10 million This is meant to assume that the first console bought is the console of choice. In other words, although 360 will have the largest base, it will also have the most people who own a Wii, PS3 or both. I believe many who own a Wii in the west will buy or already own a 360. Not many Wii gamers will buy a PS3 however, unless they have all three consoles. Mnay PS3 owners will buy a 360 for games like Halo and better online play. PS3 owners also are more likely to buy a Wii then Wii owners are to buy a PS3. With this notion of 'exclusive' user base in mind, it will become difficult for developers to produce exclusives on the PS3 that sell well enough to offset the cost of development. This is how I see things going if both Nintendo and Microsoft are 'successful'. However, I do not expect the market to stay as it is. Which is why I don't think my above predictions will hold up. Adjusting for advances in tech, new game genres, online, trends, and price cuts I think it ends up like this: Wii Japan (15 million) Americas (15 miilion) Elsewhere (15 million) PS3 Japan (5 million) Americas (7 million) Elsewhere (8 million) 360 Japan (1 million) Americas (23 million) Elsewhere (12 million) This represents a huge dropoff in hardware sales (30 million or so), which I feel will be made up by the nex gen portables from Nintendo and Sony, the DS, PSP, PC's, and ever advancing phone formats.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu