I have collected all the relevant information from VGchartz and got a breakdown of the whole figures to create a trend analysis, based on the past figures, which is a solid and totally objective method to estimate the future sales but with one flaw, that is, its static (not dynamic) and unaffected from future developments like price-cuts etc. But the estimates can be improved after each new weekly data to be even more accurate.

I base my trend analysis on different time frames to get "time intervals" (so that the figures will be more reliable) which are all weekly data based on

- last 1 month average sales

- last 2 months average sales

- last 3 months average sales

- 2007 average sales

for each given region seperately and combined.

Here are the figures...

The red fonts were supposed to indicate the leading console in overall sales but after the last edit on June 3, things have sorta changed in favor of wii. So the supposedly leading console in red font may be wrong. These estimates may change depending on what you base it on, whether last months data or quarterly data or yearly etc (aligned on each column groups).

If everything else the same, by the end of 2007, in the given rate,

PS3 will have sold between 4.841.522 - 6.782284  (about 5-6 million)

Xbox360 will have sold between 12.304.460-12.778.933 (12 million something)

Wii will have sold between 14.457.821-15.028208  (about 14-15 million)

The figures interestingly depict that Wii will barely surpass Xbox360 in Europe by the end of the year, and wont be able to surpass it in America though will have a far cry in global sales thanks to domination in Japan.

Enjoy the figures (updated on June 3).

This is starting to get ridiculous. You posted several threads with copy-pasted text and same style of spreadsheet with different numerical predictions, some of which make no sense... For this specific one, what's the point, if you don't even include holiday sales spikes?

Give me a break... This is nothing more than mathematical masturbation.

You are leaving out the holidays effect, and the effect of games suchs as Halo 3, GTA IV, Mario Galaxy and Brawl. But thanks for the chart anyway XP.

Hahaha :) Mathematical masturbation! Thats hillarious man!

The text is not the same, just the beginning "explanation" is the same because of the same method used. Of course I know future developments like holiday spikes will matter alot and this thread does NOT claim opposite. Its just a trend analysis based on "past" performance, which is not reliable over a short term but gets more and more reliable by time and totally objective. For starters, it may look very crude now, but better analysis and comment will be feasible over longer term :)

Thanks for the million dollar laugh! :)

Good work, mate!

So according to these figures Wii will pass Xbox 360 around Oct-Nov?

In the November-December holiday buying period 40% to 50% (in extreme cases 33% to 66%) of all videogame purchases are made in North America and there is a similar (although somewhat lower) pattern in Japan, Europe and other regions. It is difficult to predict the size of the spike because supply issues and high quality game releases can manipulate the shift in sales.

You should probably (at least) create a low end and high end estimate where you take the January through October average (10 Month Average) and divide it by 0.6 for the low estimate or divide it by 0.5 for the high estimate.

The downside with your projections is that they just use mathmatical averages to determine what somethings going to do.

That's exactly how JohnLucas thought the Wii was going to overtake the 360 by mid-June.



That didn't happen.


You can project all you one, but it's a difficult thing to fully project consumer trends, expecially with the price drops coming, strength of software, future attach ratios, ect, ect, ect.

I'll hold on to a slightly modified prediction I made early this year for the prediction league -

Xbox 360 - 17.5m (11.0m going into Sept. from Aug, 6.5m sold from Sept-Dec due to Halo3, Pricedrop, GTA and a very strong US/European sales)

Wii - 17.0m (overtaking the Xbox 360 in September for 1-2 weeks, only to lose due to H3 fever, then further after GTA fever. Will place about 2m under 360 in the US for holidays, but make up 1.5m in Japan/Europe)

Playstation 3 - 7.5m (continues pitiful sales through the year, 5.0m by late October, even after GTAIV is out. decent sales for Christmas, but far behind that of 360/Wii)

Nintendo DS - 59.5m (officially had 54.5m, but I realized about 5 days afterwards that I was going to be off immensely. DS is tracking right at 500-600k per week, and will continue at that pace until a breakneck Christmas/holiday season.)

Playstation Portable - 28.0m (just kinda going at a steady pace the rest of the year, no big bumps, or utter failures....Keep at a 100k-150k per week average, then a so-so Christmas campaign).


Exactly where are you on the prediction league again, freed?

To Explosivo:
"So according to these figures Wii will pass Xbox 360 around Oct-Nov?"

Your welcome pal! :) Another work of mine shows that Wii will globally surpass in 3-4 months but wont pass in Europe till 2008 and even till later in the US. Check out http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=2768&start=0#end

To HappySqurriel and mrstickball:

You are right about the downside of those predictions that they fail to consider the future affects but this is exactly why I include time intervals that let me create a min-max scale. PS3 sales, for example, will definitely spike some around, but its extremely hard to be higher than launch season, though probably will be higher than current sales, which gives us an interval of about 5-7 million, so its 90% safe that PS3 wont sell over 7 or below 5 million.

To mrstickball:

The Xbox360 deviation could be higher than others since the given time interval is smaller but I dont think it will spike this high to reach 17 million, its a little too optimistic, isnt it? My projection shows up to 13 and you could stretch it to 14 or 15 million but its too far more than this IMO.

The wii sales is also alittle bit off the scale but makes more sense than Xbox360. Despite the 15 million projection of wii sales, 1-2 million extra is possible though not probable at this very moment (but things can change till after summer).

Edit : PS3 sales, for example, will definitely spike some TIME around,

I doubt that the PS3 can sell 5 million until October, that would put it at an average of 77k units sold per week from now until then, a number which hasn't happened since April (ie soon after the European launch), and almost double of its current weekly sales...

We can try to do a brainstorming on the events which might increase its sales:

- a price drop (I doubt it)

- hype generated due to the E3 2007 conference (first half of July)

- MGS4 launch?

- GTA launch (not a PS3 exclusive)

- Home launch (I doubt this will have a big effect)

- That magic June 11 game announcement which is getting hyped now

If you guys have some comments on those items or if you can think of other potential incentives for people to buy a PS3, please post them.