Fair enough, but when people pick up a system, do they not often pick up previously released games that appeal to them? Hence games having legs? And shouldn't your point be somewhat muted by the fact that MGS3 had more PS2s out when it came out, yet sold the wort of the three? Obviously there are other reasons for that, but MGS3 is just as well thought of as the other two in most circles, at least as far as I know. I think it's the best of the three.

great score for a great game

No. They haven't reviewed Haze yet. I got this issue like two weeks ago.

Besides, they Warhawk a freaking 6.5!

6.5/10 for warhawk is bad, the far majority of all the scores were higher than 7.9/10. There are plently of games that are online and/or too hard for novices but faired better. But none of that would matter for warhawk since there IS a game filter or custom matching making. People knew Warhawk was an online only game (that isn't full priced), there's no reason to buther the game for for not being something that it's not.

Either way, Warhawk's 6.5/10 and Lair's 5/10 shows that PSM WILL rip a game apart even if it's exclusive or Sony first party.

I fail to see why the install base argument is still valid. MGS did not launch when the PS1's install base was 100m, MGS2 did not launch when the PS2's install base was 120m, and MGS3 probably had more than 2-3 times the install base of MGS2 but sold LESS. One half of the sales come from Launch numbers the other half comes from sales over time whether it's new console owners or old console owners. MGS4's success should only be compared to the attach rate of the previous MGS games during launch. The legs of the game are impossible to compare with previous games since no one knows how far the install base of the PS3 will go.

1.  I consider stealth and shooter to be two seperate genres.  MGS4 is primarily stealth.  It uses guns yes, but so does Rachet and Clank (hell even Mario has cannons).  Essentially, MGS is a stealth game that appeals to stealth fans.  It will of course attract some people that are fans of shooters, but then so did Hour of Victory, so anything with guns can capture a small piece of the shooter audience.  I believe that the stealth genre at large is shrinking in terms of its influence, but MGS practically owns the genre now, which bodes well for the 4th installment.

2.  Once again there are not many stealth games out there anymore (even though most shooters incorporate a stealth section these days (CoD4, GeoW)), so I do consider the market at large to be more and more niche as time progresses.  As I said above though, MGS in-and-of-itself cannot be considered niche, as it owns the market with this genre.

3.  I didn't bring Bioshock up, and I don't think it is that relevant really.  It is certainly a more conventional shooter (at least compared to MGS4, as Bioshock isn't exactly conventional), but this also means it faces far more competition than MGS4 does.  It is often said that Splinter Cell: Conviction (Which could now wait until 2010) is Microsoft's answer to MGS4.  The truth is, Splinter Cell is the only competition to MGS4.  Bioshock may appeal to a more broad audience than MGS4, but that audience has far more product to look at than the stealth audience. 

MGS4 >> Bioshock

hardcore Proven famous hyped good IP
>>
hardcore new good IP

this is obvious

(I m talking about sales/hype, not game quality)

this game will be succesful. i know people who HATE ps3, yet are getting it just for this game. all this talk about niche market, review scores and all that crap won't change that.

this game will sell better and faster than gt5:p at least.

I dont think you should really pay attention to previous MGS sales to conclude how MGS will sell... I think MGS4 will sell a lot better then its previous titles

Ive talked to so many people, and a lot of my friends are all looking forward to MGS4, who never even played a MGS game, and who are not even into Stealth shooters... So this is a first time pickup for them

Sure they might be disapointed when they realize its a different type of game then they were hoping (In case they were expecting a 3D Shooter type game), but the one key fact is, tons of people are new to the MGS franchise because of MGS4

I woudln't say this if I didn't meet so many people like this

So yea, basing numbers off previous MGS titles will get you to believe it will sell okay, but this isn't how it is anymore

A review of MGS4 comes in and 360 fanboys start licking Bioshock!

WTF!?